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Thread: Bernie 2016?

  1. #1
    old school RageAgainstTheAoki's Avatar
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    Default Bernie 2016?

    Gotta say, like a lot (most?) likely Democratic voters, I was pretty skeptical about Bernie Sanders' prospects for 2016, but he's doing awfully well. Still early days, but he doesn't seem like as much of a longshot as before. I guess we'll really know he's doing well when the Clinton campaign goes on the attack.




    'Bernie Sanders Can Become President' Has Replaced 'I Like Him, But He Can't Win'

    by H. A. Goodman
    Huffington Post
    July 6, 2015



    How many times have you heard the phrase, "I like Bernie Sanders, but he can't win," uttered by people who identify themselves as progressives? The facts, however, illustrate that "Bernie Sanders can win" and nobody in politics foreshadowed the Vermont Senator's latest surge in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He recently raised $15 million in just two months, and his campaign reports that "Nearly 87 percent of the total amount raised during the quarter came from the donors who contributed $250 or less." While Clinton's team isn't worried, they should be, primarily because Hillary Clinton already lost a presidential race (spending $229.4 million in the losing effort) and finished behind both Obama and John Edwards in the 2008 Iowa Caucus.

    While Clinton is expected to amass $2.5 billion, Bernie Sanders has cut the former Secretary of State's lead in New Hampshire from 38 percentage points down to just 8. According to a July 4th CNN article titled Sanders snags key endorsement in New Hampshire, Senator Sanders also gained a key ally:


    Wolfeboro, New Hampshire (CNN) Sen. Bernie Sanders has snagged a key endorsement in New Hampshire that may sting a little for Martin O'Malley's campaign.
    Longtime New Hampshire Democratic activist Dudley Dudley told CNN Friday that she has decided to endorse Bernie Sanders for the Democratic 2016 nomination.
    Since then, according to a recent CNN/WMUR New Hampshire primary poll, frontrunner Hillary Clinton's lead over Sanders has shrunk from 38 percentage points to 8, with O'Malley trailing both.
    Likely Democratic primary voters are now more apt to see Sanders as the candidate who "best represents the values of Democrats like yourself," the poll found.



    It's important to note that Sanders didn't need billions of dollars to earn the trust of voters in New Hampshire, or cut Hillary's lead to only 8 points. Since he voted against the Iraq War and has spent a lifetime championing progressive issues while others waivered (Hillary was against gay marriage until 2013, voted for the Iraq War, pushed for the TPP on 45 separate occasions, and supported Keystone XL), Bernie Sanders doesn't need to prove he's a progressive. Voters know what they're getting with Vermont's Senator. In contrast, Hillary Clinton rarely offers a direct answer on why she failed to champion certain causes when they weren't popular.

    Therefore, it's still early and Election Day is 490 days away. If this were a football game, Team Bernie is on the opponent's 45 yard line, he's down by two scores, and it's only the first quarter. Sanders has time, and his recent surge in Iowa and New Hampshire shows that anything is possible. Although still trailing Clinton in Iowa, he's continuing to narrow the gap and has gone from 15 percent support in May to 33 percent support in July.

    What polls can't measure, however, is the numbers Sanders is drawing in overflowing crowds. A Washington Post article titled Sanders draws more than 2,500 to Iowa stop -- tops for this presidential cycle so far, explains how an energized base of voters is making what was once improbable a very real possibility:


    COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa -- Another day on the presidential campaign trail, another crowd of eye-popping size for Bernie Sanders.
    The independent senator from Vermont attracted more than 2,500 people to a convention center here on Friday night as part of his continued quest to lead a "political revolution" and win the Democratic nomination in a field that also includes Hillary Rodham Clinton.
    It was by far the largest draw in Iowa, the nation's first caucus state, by any White House hopeful this cycle -- though there were plenty of Sanders fans in the crowd who came across the river from Nebraska.



    Money can't buy enthusiasm or "eye popping crowds," and while Clinton has the financial backing (she's been referred to by POLITICO as Wall Street Republicans Dark secret), Bernie has the hearts and minds of Democrats. The Washington Post writes that he's gaining larger crowds than anyone in the 2016 presidential race, so while Clinton has the top Democratic strategists on her team, Bernie Sanders owns the grass roots support among voters. It's difficult to imagine Clinton, Bush or any other candidate matching the ability of Bernie Sanders to speak to a crowd of 10,000 people in Madison, Wisconsin.

    This impressive groundswell of support for Senator Sanders isn't simply a matter of ensuring Clinton leans more to the left in 2016. Not long ago, Bill Clinton once stated, "Give me a break. This whole thing is the biggest fairytale I've ever seen" regarding Obama's chances at becoming president (the uproar forced the former president to say "But I am not a racist, I've never made a racist comment and I never attacked him personally"), so fairytales sometimes do come true. Supporters of Bernie Sanders are doing everything from starting entire Reddit threads and social media campaigns to creating Bernie TV, so what the campaign is lacking in big donors, it's more than making up in genuine enthusiasm and energy.

    As for his image as a champion for liberal causes, voters in Iowa have taken notice and according to The Boston Globe, Sanders poses a real threat to the Clinton campaign:


    Clinton's advisers are most concerned that Sanders might prove to be effective at painting Clinton as squishy or untrustworthy on liberal issues.
    The crowds at Sanders's Iowa events appeared different from the state's famously finicky tire-kickers. Many said they had already made up their mind to support Sanders.
    They applauded his calls for higher taxes on the rich to pay for 13 million public works jobs, for decisive action on climate change, and for free tuition at public colleges.



    There's a reason Clinton's advisors "are most concerned" that Sanders might paint the former Secretary of State as untrustworthy: she's changed her viewpoint on gay marriage, trade, war, and a controversial pipeline.

    Ultimately, if Sanders wins both the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary, the odds of him winning the Democratic nomination increase dramatically. Nothing illustrates the potential for Sanders to accomplish this task than a piece in The Des Moines Register titled Sanders encouraged by Iowa crowds, rising polls:


    Sanders is drawing record crowds.
    On Wednesday night, more than 10,000 people attended his rally in Madison, Wisconsin, and nearly 2,500 attended a Friday evening event in Council Bluffs -- the biggest Iowa crowd of any 2016 presidential contender yet...
    Sanders drew both traditional Democrats and conservatives on Saturday.

    "This will be the first time I've caucused with the Democrats," said Michael Tallman, 25, of Des Moines.
    Tallman, who works in banking, said Sanders seems like a candidate who will represent all people -- rich or poor, male or female, gay or straight.
    He said many millennials are disturbed by the current political process and they could be key to boosting Sanders' shot at winning.
    "I think he has a real chance," Tallman said. "We've seen it happen before."



    While Sanders "drew both traditional Democrats and conservatives" in Iowa, it would be unthinkable to see conservatives in any state supporting Hillary Clinton. The ability of Sanders to address issues that both right and left find important (even Ted Cruz is talking about wealth inequality) is one of the many advantages Sanders has over any Democratic rival. This advantage could also catapult him to victory over any GOP challenger.

    Money can't buy a vote, it can only help publicize a candidate and communicate a message pertaining to policy and values. After that, even tens of billions can't erase Clinton's defense of the Iraq War, defense of traditional marriage, or deleted emails. Bernie Sanders is drawing record crowds and surging in the polls because his value system is worth infinitely more than his opponent's ability to generate billions of dollars. Like one Iowa supporter says, "I think he has a real chance," and if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, anything is possible in 2016. Pretty soon, you might never again hear the antiquated phrase, "I like Bernie Sanders, but..."

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    Member dj12inches's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    A couple of days ago he introduced a bill to help low income families and community centers install rooftop solar panels. He has a great record when it comes to the environment.

    http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsro...lar-initiative

    I already donated $10 to his campaign. Probably the first time I have ever donated to any candidate that was running for federal office. I should be getting my Bernie bumper sticker soon....
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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    His odds of winning the Democratic nomination are about roughly the same as Donald Trump's odds of winning the Republican nomination are. Raising $15 million in small donations and drawing crowds of 10,000 in liberal environs like Madison certainly isn't nothing, but it's also not anything remotely approaching proof that "Bernie Sanders can become president."
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    Coachella Junkie stinkbutt's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Idk I think people are sick of run of the mill politicians. I think he'll crush Hilary come debate time.
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    The Encyclopedia bmack86's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    I'm certainly enjoying his candidacy thus far. Entertaining in a good and intelligent way, as opposed to most of the Republican candidates.
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    ankle biter guedita's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    I'm interested to see how this plays out:

    The other thing I want to do is to take these debates into the so-called red areas of the country. I think it is insane that the Democrats do not have a 50-state strategy [along the lines championed by Howard Dean]. How is it that, if you are the party of working people, supposedly, you abdicate your responsibility in some of the poorest states of America? Where are you in Mississippi? Where are you in South Carolina? Where are you in Alabama? Where are you in other low-income states? If you don’t get started now, you will never advance. So I intend in this campaign to go to states that many Democratic candidates don’t usually visit.

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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    ^ this is both fundamentally correct and woefully naive. The Democrats absolutely do need a red state campaign and organizing effort. They have to stop conceding state and local government to right wing rule, and they absolutely have to start building a bench and gearing up for a redistricting fight in the early 2020s. But it is whimsical bordering on the insane to think that it does any good to bring the presidential campaign there. There simply aren't the votes, and the purpose of a presidential election is to actually win the fucking thing so you can govern, and not merely to reframe a bunch of ideological issues.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
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  8. #8
    ankle biter guedita's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    You'll be receiving my homemade Sanders/Kucinich 2016 bumper sticker in 3-5 business days.

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    Coachella Junkie stinkbutt's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    While I agree with you Mitch I also feel like if this issue is brought to more attention in a bigger election there will be more clamor when it comes time for locals
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    The Encyclopedia bmack86's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    And really, it has to start somewhere. I honestly think that's probably his biggest goal with this campaign, to get his particular visions for what America should be doing out to the largest audience possible.
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Quote Originally Posted by Miroir Noir View Post
    ^ this is both fundamentally correct and woefully naive. The Democrats absolutely do need a red state campaign and organizing effort. They have to stop conceding state and local government to right wing rule, and they absolutely have to start building a bench and gearing up for a redistricting fight in the early 2020s. But it is whimsical bordering on the insane to think that it does any good to bring the presidential campaign there. There simply aren't the votes, and the purpose of a presidential election is to actually win the fucking thing so you can govern, and not merely to reframe a bunch of ideological issues.

    A 50 state local>state>federal strategy would be much easier to carry out if the Democratic base actually voted in any of the non-Presidential elections.


    Edit:
    Quote Originally Posted by stinkbutt View Post
    While I agree with you Mitch I also feel like if this issue is brought to more attention in a bigger election there will be more clamor when it comes time for locals
    I see you beat me to it, but I don't completely buy into the notion that it's the party's responsibility to create a clamor. We get the government we ask for, and right now we can't be bothered to ask for much.
    Last edited by iamthehorn; 07-10-2015 at 09:18 AM.

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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Quote Originally Posted by stinkbutt View Post
    Idk I think people are sick of run of the mill politicians. I think he'll crush Hilary come debate time.
    Right, people are tired of politicians who are inauthentic and because of this I can see him winning the nomination. As a Republican, I do hope this is the case (assuming someone I can tolerate from the Republican field is nominated) as he would get absolutely crushed in the general. Those of us who live in liberal urban areas often forget or are unaware how moderate the rest of the country really is. There is no way that America would elect a self proclaimed Democratic Socialist as President. That Socialist word is just to scary for most.

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    Member dj12inches's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    2014 had horrible voter turnout. Only 36.4% of the population voted.

    Since we have a majority wins election system, that generally means that 18.3% of the population decides who goes into office. Pretty lame.

    However, since the president is voted in by the electoral college, it doesn't make sense to spend too much time in red states - unless you smell that there is dissatisfaction with all of the other republican candidates. You may be able to get your message across, but you probably will not win the state. With Bernie's limited resources, this kind of campaign sounds like a bad idea.

    Jeb Bush already has $114 million to spend that was raised in about 2 weeks. Fucking oligarchy. Fuck Bush AND Clinton.
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    Member DFH no.6's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Miroir Noir is (unsurprisingly) correct on all accounts here.

    Bernie Sanders’ policies would certainly be good for the country, particularly his prescriptions on “bread and butter” issues affecting the majority of people in our great land who are just getting by, or worse. However, most of those same policies which have any chance of actually being enacted would be essentially the same in a Hillary Clinton administration.

    As someone who is personally to the left of Clinton, and thus lines up more closely with Sanders on most political and economic matters, I’m happy to have Sanders in the primary. He still doesn’t have a ghost of a chance of getting the nomination, for a number of reasons.

    Is Hillary Clinton “inauthentic” as replicanted put it? I don’t know, aren’t we all, to some extent? Is she any more inauthentic than anyone in the clown car cavalcade on the fascist side? Not hardly.

    In November 2016 the choice is going to be Hillary Clinton (almost certainly) vs. Attila the Fucking Hun, whatever manifestation he presents that day (Jeb!? – most likely – Cruz? Christie?). Voting for the Republican (pretty much any Republican for any office, really) is voting for someone who will do bad and even dangerous things with the power of government. The Republican worldview and attendant policy prescriptions (which are, you know, the things that really matter) are a fucking nightmare, from A to Z. That’s the choice.
    Last edited by DFH no.6; 07-10-2015 at 02:40 PM.

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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DFH no.6 View Post
    Is Hillary Clinton “inauthentic” as put it? I don’t know, aren’t we all, to some extent? Is she any more inauthentic than anyone in the clown car cavalcade on the fascist side? Not hardly.

    In November 2016 the choice is going to be Hillary Clinton (almost certainly) vs. Attila the Fucking Hun, whatever manifestation he presents that day (Jeb!? – most likely – Cruz? Christie?). Voting for the Republican (pretty much any Republican for any office, really) is voting for someone who will do bad and even dangerous things with the power of government. The Republican worldview and attendant policy prescriptions (which are, you know, the things that really matter) are a fucking nightmare, from A to Z. That’s the choice.
    Agreed. Additionally, I've been very pleased with the Clinton campaign so far. It very much seems to understand that this isn't the world of 1996 or even 2008, and that the way you win a presidential race, and indeed, govern effectively, is the way Obama has from late 2011 on: by focusing on the issues that matter to the base and turning them out to vote for you in the election (and to support you after you are in office). She's talking about economic inequality, criminal justice reform, voting rights, immigration reform, and pay equity -- in other words, speaking to the issues that animate the Democratic coalition, and on their terms. It's not a populist, leftist campaign, and no one will confuse it with one, but it is a campaign squarely centered on the issues that matter to the coalition of minorities, women, liberal white professionals, and younger voters that soundly elected Obama twice.

    A lot of the leftist critique of Clinton has drifted from "she's not liberal enough on issue x" to "she changed her view on issue y" or "she doesn't really mean it when she says she shares our view on issue z." This roughly mirrors where the right was with Romney in the 2012 primaries; at the end of the day, critiques like these end up mattering very little. I like Bernie Sanders and I'm happy he's moving the agenda where he is. But I have very little fear that the Clinton campaign is going to turn into a triangulated, Dick Morris-style affair, and I will likely support it with few if any reservations.
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    Member DFH no.6's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Miroir Noir, I see the Clinton campaign (and Hillary herself) in much the same way as you do. And the leftist critiques, too.

    Thanks for the thoughtful and articulate way you put it -- I'm more intemperate, going on about fascists and clown cars and such. I really do think that modern movement conservatism in America -- with the Republican Party as it's political wing -- is very much our own homegrown version of fascism, a far-right way of viewing and organizing society that is dangerous and inhumane, but I made my points about that at length a couple months ago on the Fuck the Republican Party thread and won't repeat them here. And I'm sorry, but Trump and Cruz and Santorum and Huckabee and Rand Paul and Jindal and Perry and Rubio are fucking clowns.

    I'm not interested in winning over the hearts and minds of people like Archie Bunker here. Or even "winning" arguments with them. People like that -- in their teeming millions -- are going to support, and vote for, the "I got mine, fuck you; Devil take the hindmost" Republican candidates all day long. Free country, go for it.

    I'm a little interested in pushing back a bit on the leftist purity patrol who are searching for unicorns who shit rainbows, and thus find candidates like Hillary not just lacking, but lacking to the point of not supporting her when the choice must be made. Like that whole "little difference between Bush and Gore" in 2000 bullshit. That worked out great.

    I'm most interested in doing GOTV work for whoever is the Democratic candidate, as I have every election cycle since my first such campaign volunteer work in '72. As a leftist I am also happy to see Sanders "moving the agenda" as you put it. But I'm pragmatic and fully expect to be doing all the tedious calling and knocking on doors for Hillary in the general. Way past time we had a woman as president, and Hillary being the first one is more than fine by me. Looking forward to it, actually.

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    ankle biter guedita's Avatar
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    Uh, the leftist critiques I read about Hilary are much more substantial than that pandering to the mainstream media newstream nonsense.

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    I don't think it's unreasonable to think two candidates from different parties will end up having similar objectives in office when they're taking campaign money from similar sources. Obviously, it's not exactly the same and Democratic candidates will do less damage and do more to promote progressive policies, but the gap between the two should be much wider than it is. And it boils down to money in politics. Things are never going to change as much they need to in a truly vital way that has an effect on people's lives so long as that is allowed to run rampant. It's just hard to really believe a candidate/politician actually has the interest of the people in mind when they're taking such large contributions from disreputable sources.

    At this point, I'm sick of half measures pushing us forward, especially on economic issues. It's great some of the things that got done under Obama, but I can't say my life has significantly changed all that much. I still work a full work week and barely get by and get the chance to really live the life I'd like to live. I still have a very difficult time getting my medical expenses covered or finding a doctor (I've been unable to find a psychiatrist to prescribe me needed medication covered by my insurance and available outside of my 9-5 M-F work week). Food stamp benefits are still getting cut all over the place. So on and so forth. Obviously Obama isn't king, he can't just make a proclamation and change everything in a flash at his whim. I understand all of that. But even if the President is fairly limited in his power, I want someone in office that is unapologetically going to fight tooth and nail on these issues in the favor of the common person, and there's just always going to be a conflict of issue when the people bankrolling you are the billionaires who want to stay billionaires.
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    I think in this day and age it's difficult to be in the national stage for a prolonged period time and win elections, especially if you a more pragmatic politician like Bill or Hillary. There's just too much history that is easily accessible. I just feel that she lost to Obama for a reason and I don't think she's answered any of those questions and I don't see why the base would feel any differently about her this time around. Her time as Secretary of State doesn't have a whole lot of wins in her column. Arab Spring blew up under her watch, ISIS emerged, Russian reset was a joke. A lot of stuff in the Middle East obviously was inherited by Bush's failures, but she wasn't able to make much a difference or at least so it seems. She just seemed like she was too afraid to take a stance on anything of substance. Not sure how much of it was her and how much was Obama micromanaging everything see Chuck Hagel's resignation. That being said, Kerry has seemingly been much more active in trying to get stuff done which leads me to believe she had something to do with her ineffectiveness as Secretary of State.

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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    What is the current Leftist critique of Clinton? She hasn't threatened to jail people from Goldman Sachs? She voted for the Iraq war 12 years ago? She tone polices on Twitter too much?
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    Well it's hard to say because other than free pre-K education, I don't think she's really said anything concrete about her plans yet. Meanwhile, Sanders is saying he's going to tax the wealthy and free college for everyone and student loan forgiveness etc. It's really an issue that people don't trust her (as seen in the polls) and Sanders is getting to issues first and going farther left on issues than she'd be comfortable with in her platform if she wants to win the general. She'll play it safe that's what candidates like her do, imo Romney played it too safe as well and wasn't specific enough and it bit him in the end. (not arguing about issues but campaign strategy here). If you are too vague and don't articulate a clear vision you can let the other side define you, in this case Sanders can get the base convinced that she's not liberal enough for the modern Democratic Party.

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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    I think Sanders can do a lot more good for the country in the Senate, working with Warren and the like to push the Dem legislative agenda to the left. His presidential campaign and the resulting increased name recognition is only going to help that. Were he to be elected President, I think we'd only see his policies marginalized by a Congress that's unwilling to play ball with his agenda.

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    Member dj12inches's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    I think Bernie would be effective at negotiating with the right by making concessions when necessary. He has some leftist ideas, but he also maintains some positions that would appeal to Republicans.

    For example, he voted against the Keystone XL pipeline but voted for Homeland Security appropriations. He supports responsible gun ownership and tax credits for business to promote job growth. He is in favor of reducing defence spending, but also in favor of repealing the Affordable Care Act.

    I know he is running as a Democrat, but he was elected to the Senate as an independent and may be quite the deal maker if elected. As replicantsd mentioned, I am not sure that Clinton really is a lock for the nomination. Remember when nobody had ever heard of Obama and thought that Hillary was a shoe in? I am all for a woman president, but I think that Oprah has a better chance of being elected than Hillary.
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    Coachella Junkie malcolmjamalawesome's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    ITT: dreamers
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    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Quote Originally Posted by dj12inches View Post
    but also in favor of repealing the Affordable Care Act.
    That's ridiculous. He does not want to repeal the ACA in any way that would appeal to Republicans. Any dismantling of the ACA he is for would be in service of replacing it with a stronger program.

    He voted for the ACA and called it an "important step forward." He also voted against several amendments and bills to shut down, defund, or otherwise cripple the ACA. (See his voting record on his site, the Senate's site, or Vote Smart).

    Sure, he supports a single-payer system, but in that article he also praises the ACA, before going on to say:

    This is a modest step forward. But if we are serious about providing quality care for all, much more needs to be done.
    Last edited by mountmccabe; 07-14-2015 at 09:12 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dj12inches View Post
    but voted for Homeland Security appropriations
    Similarly, I do not think this shows the independent, Republican-friendly candidate you suggest it does. I assume you're talking about HR 240, but please feel free to correct me.

    In the Senate Democrats and Independents voted 45-0 for this bill. Republicans were split, 23-31. The House was much the same, 182-0 amongst Democrats and 75-167 amongst Republicans.
    Quote Originally Posted by getbetter View Post
    If you can't make the deadline you cant make the deadline. I didn't stop playing pokemon last night for nothing.

  27. #27
    Member dj12inches's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Quote Originally Posted by mountmccabe View Post
    That's ridiculous. He does not want to repeal the ACA in any way that would appeal to Republicans. Any dismantling of the ACA he is for would be in service of replacing it with a stronger program.
    This is correct, I misunderstood his position. He's in favor of medicare for all.
    How many animals can you find in the 2015 Coachella lineup?

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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Relevant to this discussion, FiveThirtyEight is helpfully compiling statistics on primary endorsements, a key indicator of the so-called "invisible primary," and historically among the very best predictors of primary success.

    Bernie isn't on the list because he's yet to receive the endorsement of a single current or past Democratic governor or member of Congress. In fact, his most high profile endorser to date is . . . Jesse Ventura.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

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    Member dj12inches's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bernie 2016?

    Quote Originally Posted by Miroir Noir View Post
    In fact, his most high profile endorser to date is . . . Jesse Ventura.
    Not true......Ben and Jerry are on board. He's going to get the Ice Cream vote.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...nst-super-pacs
    How many animals can you find in the 2015 Coachella lineup?

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