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Thread: Elicktion Night 2012

  1. #1

    Default Elicktion Night 2012

    i think Election Night has the possibility to be settled fairly early.

    Watch how 2 states close: Ohio & North Carolina


    If Obama wins both then the presidential election is over.


    If Romney wins both then Obama will be forced to win Iowa, Colorado & Nevada.
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  2. #2
    Member Archie Bunker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by bug on your lip View Post
    i think Election Night has the possibility to be settled fairly early.

    Watch how 2 states close: Ohio & North Carolina


    If Obama wins both then the presidential election is over.


    If Romney wins both then Obama will be forced to win Iowa, Colorado & Nevada.
    If Obama wins Ohio, it's over. North Carolina (which likely will go Romney) doesn't matter at that point.
    This space for rent.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    This election has been over for months, Romney doesn't have a chance

  4. #4
    old school ocbruin84's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    don't get cocky. #2004

  5. #5
    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Two months ago it looks like Romney didn't have a chance then he started to rise after the first debate.

    I think we are actually back to about where we were before the conventions, with Obama favored but things are close enough that I am concerned.

    And yeah, North Carolina isn't a thing. If NC goes to Obama it'll be a landslide.
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  6. #6

    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Archie Bunker View Post
    If Obama wins Ohio, it's over. North Carolina (which likely will go Romney) doesn't matter at that point.
    Nope... Obama could win Ohio.. Romney will take Virginia & Colorado. And then it comes down to Wisconsin.
    Quote Originally Posted by RotationSlimWang View Post
    Say goodbye to that acid, Greg.

  7. #7
    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    I don't see a scenario where Obama is winning Ohio, losing Wisconsin. The former is naturally two or three points more Republican than the latter.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

  8. #8
    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by mountmccabe View Post
    I think we are actually back to about where we were before the conventions, with Obama favored but things are close enough that I am concerned.
    I felt better yesterday and today about the election than I have at any point since before Denver.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

  9. #9
    Wheelchair Epidemic hawkingvsreeve's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Alright lets just do this. Predict the electoral college numbers.


    Obama: 303

    Romney: 235



    I'm essentially giving every swing state (CO, NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA) with the exception of Florida to Obama.


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  10. #10
    Member tyles's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    According to Time's 2012 Electoral College Calculator Map, if Romney won all the states shown up for grabs and all the states that are learning Obama and Romney go that way during the election, the final tally would be Obama 271, Romney 267. Now that is cutting it close!

    http://swampland.time.com/2012/10/16...d=sl-main-belt
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    The level of sheer laziness and pure speculation and confusion about very easily found and well-known things that this board has gotten to is truly confounding.

  11. #11
    old school LickTheLizzard's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    I can see it ending up like this

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...mdnjannaajenje

    You can adjust the map and look at different scenarios.
    Last edited by LickTheLizzard; 11-01-2012 at 08:05 PM.
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  12. #12
    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkingvsreeve View Post
    Alright lets just do this. Predict the electoral college numbers.


    Obama: 303

    Romney: 235



    I'm essentially giving every swing state (CO, NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA) with the exception of Florida to Obama.


    "I'M FEELIN' IT"
    This has been my map since May.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

  13. #13
    old school HotHamWater's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Do Republicans typically turn out for early voting more than do Democrats? Specifically in Colorado? Republicans appear to be turning out pretty well in early voting, compared to 2008. I'm reading that about half of votes that were cast in 2008 have already been cast in Colorado, and the turnout is R+3. That's worse turnout for Democrats compared to what was the basis for most polls I've been seeing. I hope that's not a trend in other swing states.

  14. #14
    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    It's hard to model the early voting against the polls etc etc, but the general trend is that Ds have had a historical advantage in most states, Rs have had one in Colorado. Obama seems to be leading the early voting in most states, but not to the extent he was in '08.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Obama will win Colorado. We will also end the prohibition of marijuana.


    You are welcome.

  16. #16
    Wheelchair Epidemic hawkingvsreeve's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012



    Yep.
    Quote Originally Posted by obzen View Post
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  17. #17
    old school ocbruin84's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    I guess Bloomberg & The Economist have endorsed Barry.

  18. #18

    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    i just hope gary johnson pulls 5% of the vote so we can end the two party system... god that sounds great
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  19. #19

    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    i can totally see Virginia, Wisconsin & Colorado going Romney.

    I think you guys are way off on Wisconsin. Democrats and the labor unions were heated up and still could not recall Scott Walker. That is not a good sign for the Obama campaign.
    Quote Originally Posted by RotationSlimWang View Post
    Say goodbye to that acid, Greg.

  20. #20
    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Compare the polling data in Ohio and Wisconsin. Obama is polling at nearly 50% in Wisconsin, and according to the many of the same firms that polled the Walker recall. There hasn't been a single public poll with Romney in the lead in Wisconsin since August.

    On the "who's winning the early voting?" question, see this.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

  21. #21
    old school HotHamWater's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Miroir Noir View Post
    Compare the polling data in Ohio and Wisconsin. Obama is polling at nearly 50% in Wisconsin, and according to the many of the same firms that polled the Walker recall. There hasn't been a single public poll with Romney in the lead in Wisconsin since August.

    On the "who's winning the early voting?" question, see this.
    That was a good article. Kind of sums up why I'm confused about Tubesock's optimism as it pertains to Colorado.

  22. #22
    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Colorado is a hard state to figure out. It has liberal areas that are as liberal as any in the country, conservative areas that are as conservative as any in the country, and a bunch of suburban voters who have split tickets for both parties. Demographically you have a sizable (though not as big as other regional states) Latino population, and a similar dynamic with the LDS population. It is a state that I think is pretty obviously trending blue, but for now is still purple. Part of the optimistic Democratic case is that the polls greatly underestimated the Democratic vote for US Senate two years ago. The early vote is worrysome for Democrats, but in '08 Obama won the early vote by a small margin, but ran up a clear win on election day -- the opposite trend of a lot of other swing states.

    As of today, I think that it and Virginia are the two closest states.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

  23. #23

    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Amendment 64 will bring out the young vote. Denver and Boulder is where you have large populations and they have been slow getting to the voting booth. Most democrats haven't voted by mail in ballot or early as the last election.

  24. #24
    Member tigermilkboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by bug on your lip View Post
    i can totally see Virginia, Wisconsin & Colorado going Romney.

    I think you guys are way off on Wisconsin. Democrats and the labor unions were heated up and still could not recall Scott Walker. That is not a good sign for the Obama campaign.
    You can get odds of +333 on Romney winning Wisconsin.

    The only real toss-ups are Florida (55% Romney), Colorado and Virginia (64.6% Obama). The race in FL seems to be tightening.

  25. #25
    old school ocbruin84's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    for what it's worth, here's Conservapedia's outlook on swing states. Not as delusional as I expected:

    1556kvs.jpg

  26. #26
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Miroir Noir View Post
    This has been my map since May.
    This is the nowcast from Nate Silver. Just a few more days before this bullshit is finally over and the riots can start.

  27. #27
    Coachella Junkie jackstraw94086's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by the walrus View Post
    i just hope gary johnson pulls 5% of the vote so we can end the two party system... god that sounds great
    whatever.

    The worst part of every presidential election year(and a half) is all the twats that blather about only having two choices.
    Just about every single major election in the history of democracy has been a choice between giant douche and turd sandwich. This is how all democracies evolve.
    If every citizen had their perfectly ideal candidate in the race there it would be a 330 Million way tie. Third parties are temporarily useful but are necessarily short-lived as their support inevitably gets consumed by one of two major parties. There will never be an "end to the two party system".

    Yeah, I know, this whole compromising with those that live amongst you thing sucks right?

  28. #28
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    The rest of the world would like to have a few words with you about whether two party rule is inevitable.

  29. #29
    Coachella Junkie jackstraw94086's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by PotVsKtl View Post
    The rest of the world would like to have a few words with you about whether two party rule is inevitable.
    If you want to be clever, be right.

    And if you bothered to quote examples, I would challenge you to present any large scale democracies where anyone but the top two parties gathered more than a small percentage of the vote. Ultimately it's only a real choice between two candidates, and voting elsewise is only a symbolic gesture which only serves to shape the face of one of the other two parties.
    Last edited by jackstraw94086; 11-02-2012 at 12:55 PM.

  30. #30
    old school Fourthisto's Avatar
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    Default Re: Elicktion Night 2012

    Ah yes, the Elicktions. Those were the transformers that went from robots to voting booths and back, right?
    14 in a row = 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012a, 2012b, 2013a, 2013b, 2014a, 2014b


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