Romney can win the popular vote and still not get to 270.
Romney can win the popular vote and still not get to 270.
Leftover from last night: completely amazing that Romney said he wants to indict Ahmadinejad under the Genocide Convention. Even setting aside the fact that it's not clear Ahmadinejad could (or should) be indicted under international law, conservatives have argued -- since at least Vietnam -- that international tribunals lack legitimacy, sap American sovereignty, etc., etc. That Romney can get away with saying this type of thing shows how little the media understands foreign policy.
This, out today from one of those original number cruncher guys, Charlie Cook, lines up with what Nate Silver and the stat people are saying. It seems pretty damn accurate to me:
The conventional wisdom seems to be that the momentum that Romney built up after his first debate victory had continued to grow, but my sense was that it was arrested by an Obama win in the second debate, albeit less decisive than the Romney’s victory in the first. Going into this third and final debate, the national polls looked dead even, and, coming out of the debate, my guess is that the polls will still be dead even.
But if the national polls are looking even, that doesn’t mean that the election is an even-money contest. Although this race is very close, the road to 270 electoral votes is considerably more difficult for Romney than it is for Obama. The president starts off with undisputed leads in 16 states and the District of Columbia with 237 electoral votes, 33 short of the 270 needed to win. Romney begins with equally clear leads in 23 states with 191 electoral votes, 79 short of a victory. Nine states with 110 electoral votes are in the admittedly broad Toss-Up column (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin). Obama needs to win 30 percent of those Toss-Up electoral votes; Romney needs 72 percent of those votes.
Not all of the states in this Toss-Up column are equal. Most private polls show Romney with low single-digit leads in North Carolina and Virginia. For the sake of argument, let’s give Romney both states, adding 28 additional electoral votes to the 191 that Romney already led in, for a total of 219--51 short of a victory.
At the same time, Obama has a lead in Nevada that is wider than any advantage that Romney has in North Carolina and Virginia, so let’s add the Silver State’s six electoral votes to the Obama 237, bringing his total to 243, 27 short of 270.
That leaves six remaining states--Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), and Wisconsin (10)--with a total of 76; Obama needs 27 of the 76 while Romney needs 51. But the challenge for Romney isn’t just that he needs to win two-thirds of the “true” Toss-Up state electoral votes. It's that in five of the six (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin) Obama is still leading in most polling, particularly the last two, while in Florida, it seems awfully close to dead even. If Obama carries Ohio and Wisconsin, where he is ahead in most polling, he gets the 270 with one electoral vote to spare, so Romney could sweep Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire and still come up short. No matter how you cut it, Ohio is the pivotal state, and it isn’t just the history of having gone with every winner from 1964 on and with no Republican ever capturing the White House without it.
To be sure, this race is so close that it clearly can go either way, but the Obama electoral path looks less steep than the one Romney must traverse, and the final debate seems unlikely to have altered that fact.
Finally a good explanation of Mitt Romney's tax plan:
Love it. Just shared it on FB.
i couldn't get the picture on my phone to upload, but was anyone watching the debate on CNN? i tuned in for the second half and what the fuck was that "florida undecided voters" +/- meter thing at the bottom of the screen?! highly unnecessary and weird.
Shioottt, when going back three pages isn't enough.
Did anyone have Meat Loaf on their 2013 lineup pool?
Pure magic. I think I just grew a foot.
Geezus. That Meatloaf thing is... I don't even know what to say! Except I should have known better than to click on something like that after taking a sip of frosty beverage.
Steve Winwood| Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds| Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds| Echo and the Bunnymen| Echo and the Bunnymen| Paul McCartney| Foxygen| FYF Fest| NIN/Soundgarden|
Elvis Costello| Swans| Buzzcocks| King Crimson| Elton John| Kasabian| Massive Attack| Massive Attack| Slowdive| Fleetwood Mac| A Winged Victory for the Sullen
This is pretty much perfect: http://lucilleandmitt.tumblr.com/
^Went through every page. Thank you.
Subject:*Fwd: HOBBY LOBBY
By David Green
When my family and I started our company*40 years ago, we were working out of a garage on a $600 bank loan, assembling miniature picture frames. Our first retail store wasn't much bigger than most people's living rooms, but we had faith that we would succeed if we lived and worked according to God's word. From there,*Hobby Lobby*has become one of the nation's largest arts and crafts retailers, with more than*500 locations in 41 states. Our children grew up into fine business leaders, and today we run Hobby Lobby together, as a family.
We're Christians, and we run our business on Christian principles. I've always said that the first two goals of our business are (1) to run our business in harmony with God's laws, and (2) to focus on people more than money. And that's what we've tried to do. We*close early*so our employees can see their families at night. We keep our stores closed on Sundays, one of the week's*biggest shopping days, so that our workers and their families can enjoy a day of rest. We believe that it is by God's grace that Hobby Lobby has endured, and he has blessed us and our employees. We've not only*added jobs*in a weak economy, we've*raised wages*for the*past four years*in a row. Our full-time employees start at*80%*above minimum wage.
But now, our government threatens to change all of that. A new government healthcare mandate says that our family business must provide what I believe are*abortion-causing drugs*as part of our health insurance. Being Christians, we don't pay for drugs that might cause abortions. Which means that we don't cover emergency contraception, the morning-after pill or the week-after pill. We believe doing so might end a life after the moment of conception, something that is contrary to our most important beliefs. It goes against the Biblical principles on which we have run this company since day one. If we refuse to comply, we could face $1.3 million*per dayin government fines.
Our government threatens to fine job creators in a bad economy. Our government threatens to fine a company that's raised wages four years running. Our government threatens to fine a family for running its business according to its beliefs. It's not right.
I know people will say we ought to follow the rules; that it's the same for everybody. But that's not true. The government has*exempted thousands of companies*from this mandate, for reasons of convenience or cost. But it won't exempt them for reasons of religious belief. So, Hobby Lobby — and my family — are forced to make a choice. With great reluctance, we filed a lawsuit today, represented by the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty, asking a federal court to stop this mandate before it hurts our business. We don't like to go running into court, but we no longer have a choice. We believe people are more important than the bottom line and that honoring God is more important than turning a profit.
My family has lived the American dream. We want to continue growing our company and providing great jobs for thousands of employees, but the government is going to make that much more difficult. The government is forcing us to choose between following our faith and following the law. I say that's a choice no American — and no American business — should have to make.
David Greenis the CEO and founder of Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc.
The government cannot force you to follow laws that go against your fundamental religious beliefs
They have exempted thousands of companies (friends of Obama) but will not except Christian organizations
Including the Catholic church.
Just remember this in November !
Since you will not see this covered in any of the liberal media, pass this on to all your contacts
^^Oh god. Who knows, maybe they'll turn another cheek like Susan G Komen and Chick-fil-A and apologize for their political statements. Personally, it gives me another company to boycott the fuck out of regardless of their apology. bwha ha ha ha
In fact, this is the letter I just sent them for the "Send a Postcard to the Green Family to support their fight for religious liberty":
"Fuck your company and the horse it rode in on. I will never return to your store and will be sure to advocate non-partisan stores to all of my friends and family--which you do not fit into.
So thank you for allowing me the opportunity to boycott your store and give me a substantial reason to hate you. Thank you!"
I sent it from: email@example.com (I actually kinda like the bogus email address I created for sending purposes)
I'm feeling feisty.
Last edited by Originalbob; 10-29-2012 at 03:52 AM. Reason: Added the email address
Perhaps someone should write Mr Green and inform him that "life starts at the moment of conception" is not a biblical principle. It's not in the bible, nothing like it is in the bible, and claiming that it comes 'from God' is blasphemy by any reasonable definition of that term. No, this is evangelical propaganda intended to camouflage their attempts to control sexuality, and in particular women's sexuality. Evangelicals' obsession with sexuality is a Freudian jungle full of all sorts of Oedipal ghosts, no doubt.It goes against the Biblical principles on which we have run this company
One might also remind Mr Green something that actually is in the bible... in Matthew, Jesus says, "If you want to be perfect, go, sell your possessions and give to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me."