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Thread: The 136th Running for the Roses

  1. #31
    whiney pain in butt
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Oh man, that reads like a 1980's music career graveyard.

    lol.

    Flock of Seagulls.. that's gotta be a weird show to see in 2010.

  2. #32
    whiney pain in butt
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    I do like Fishbone though...

  3. #33
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by J~$$$$ View Post
    Is the infield that bad at the derby?
    Yea. I've been in 02, 04, and 06. All years in the infield. Louisville is such an awesome little city, especially this week. Derby parties in all other years.

  4. #34
    old school
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    How do you usually bet Wes?

  5. #35
    Peaceful Oasis TomAz's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Isn't the phrase 'run for the roses'? not running?
    Quote Originally Posted by efrain44 View Post
    Anyone know who the guy in the Cardinals jersey is? I've seen him in pictures on the board and I thought I saw him this year.

  6. #36
    old school
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    more than one.

  7. #37
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    One horse = no fun.

  8. #38
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    whatever.

  9. #39
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    I love betting on races with lots of horses, so if you win it will pay well. My most common bets are as follows.

    1) 3 Horse Quinella Box (2 of those three have to come in first & second)
    2) $1 Trifecta with 3 or 4 horses. Sometimes, I'll pin the winner and box 2nd & 3rd
    3) Love the 10 cent Superfectas. Sometimes I'll box up to 500 combos, but most of the time I'll cap the bet at $12.00
    4) Last year, there were so many long-odds horses in the derby, I just had to put $2 to win on all the ones I didn't have in my exotics. This hedge ended up making my day.

  10. #40
    Pedley Rocks JustSteve's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    can we bet on the first horse to be turned into glue?

  11. #41
    Coachella Junkie woogie846's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Fishbone on 7/2? Tempting.

  12. #42
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Any Friday night at Hollywood Park is tempting. $1.00 beers & $1.00 Hot Dogs.

  13. #43
    Bambi menikmati's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    That doesn't encourage drunk driving now does it?

  14. #44
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    I'm a horse racing nut... but have never cashed a winning ticket on the Kentucky Derby... have done very well on past undercard races, but the Derby itself? No. I've even talked myself out of picking Smarty Jones and Big brown in recent years..

    With the scratch of Eskendrea the other day, this race became very betable.

    I have not looked at in-depth past performances this year... I'll delve into that now that the post positions and morning line odds have been released.

    The only thing I will tell you, is if you like Lookin at Lucky in the #1 hole, or Sydney's Candy all the way outside in the #20 hole, don't let those post positions make you change your mind if you like the horse enough.

    I, like everyone else, thought Big Brown would win the Derby 2 years ago. Then when I found out, with his front-running style, that he'd be all the way outside in the #20 hole, I changed my mind. He'd get marooned wide with other speed horses to the inside of him, and he'd tire out. He did get marooned wide. He raced the whole Derby 5-wide from the rail... and still crushed the field.

    So what I'm saying is, don't let a horse's post position make you change your mind if you like the horse enough. I learned that lesson 2 years ago with Big Brown. When there's 20 horses in a field, there's gonna be traffic anyway, so you just gotta hope your horse gets a clean trip no matter where he/she starts from.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  15. #45
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by J~$$$$ View Post


    This is a must.
    maybe the best horse race I've ever seen... period. This stretch run still gives me chills... Sorry but the embed was disabled. Just watch the 1st 2 minutes of it and y'all will understand. Enjoy.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjLZ1...eature=related
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  16. #46
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses



    A different look at the same race...
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  17. #47
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    On another note- How much $$$ will you bet on that single race?

    I'm pretty much a minimum bettor. In a normal day, playing simulcast races from all over the country, If I'm down $200 I'm done. On the Kentucky Derby alone, I may spend upwards of $100.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  18. #48
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Getting a 1st look at this Kentucky Derby field now... this thing could be bombs away (full of longshots in the money). I think the 2 favorites- Lookin at Lucky and Sydney's Candy are both very beatable. But I've never cashed a winning ticket on the Kentucky Derby, so take what I say with a grain of salt. My picks TBA. Off the top of my head though, if Ice Box gets a hot pace to run at he'll be barreling home late.

    You can get free past performances for the Derby here-
    http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/136.html
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  19. #49
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Thanks for the link. I'm printing now and studying tonight!

  20. #50
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayaDelWes View Post
    Thanks for the link. I'm printing now and studying tonight!
    It won't matter lol. The lady that likes the name of the horse or her lucky number is 8 will win this thing.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  21. #51
    old school
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayaDelWes View Post
    I love betting on races with lots of horses, so if you win it will pay well. My most common bets are as follows.

    1) 3 Horse Quinella Box (2 of those three have to come in first & second)
    2) $1 Trifecta with 3 or 4 horses. Sometimes, I'll pin the winner and box 2nd & 3rd
    3) Love the 10 cent Superfectas. Sometimes I'll box up to 500 combos, but most of the time I'll cap the bet at $12.00
    4) Last year, there were so many long-odds horses in the derby, I just had to put $2 to win on all the ones I didn't have in my exotics. This hedge ended up making my day.
    Im following this. The off-tracking betting place is going to be frenzy tomorrow, going to try be there early.

  22. #52

    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    remember last year when i said a 50-1 horse would win it?
    Quote Originally Posted by RotationSlimWang View Post
    Say goodbye to that acid, Greg.

  23. #53
    old school
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    I remember. What are you predicting this year zoltar?

  24. #54
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Stand by for the complete and detailed Playa Handicap of tomorrow's 11th race, The Kentucky Derby. Following shortly thereafter will be the betting strategy that I will follow and recommended for anyone who betting the race and is completely lost on where to begin.

  25. #55
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Playa's take on tomorrow's field.

    No 50-1 winners this year, sorry folks
    The clear favorite is (20)Sidney’s Candy. 3 for 3 in G1 & G2 races in 2010. In all three, Talamo, who is also riding him tomorrow was on him, he showed speed, and drove down the stretch, showing no signs of weakness. I can’t be talked out of this horse. I especially like that positions 17, 18, and 19 show no speed, which should give #20 a clear path towards the rail. I don’t see another horse leading after the second turn.

    Other Contenders
    At The Wood Memorial, back on April 10th, (13)Jackson Bend and (16)Awesome Act each ran one of the best races of this entire field. Only problem is that they got 2nd and 3rd behind Eskenderya, the former favorite in this year’s Derby. Even though they both finished 9 lengths back, they each posted some of the speediest times for 1 1/8th mile. In the race before, Jackson Bend finished 2nd, 8 lengths back again…to Eskenderya. Both have shown great speed and race pace in all former races at this distance. The Jockey / Trainer combination of Smith / Zito on Jackson Bend add to the attraction. My only issue with Jackson Bend is that he shows no late-race acceleration for that ‘extra charge’ at the end, but he doesn’t exactly pull back either.

    (12) Conveyance, rounds out my top contenders with a lifetime record of 4 wins and 1 place out of 5 starts and 2 for 3 in 2010 all at G3 stakes. The consistency of his speed numbers are unparalleled to anyone in the field. + Baffert has plenty of derby experience. No signs of weakness at the end of his five races. “Cleared, Lasted, Ridden out, Driving…” are all signs that he can compete in the 1 mile race.

    Closers
    Depending on the speed of the race, you might see (8)Dean’s Kitten, or (10)Paddy O’Oprado close in at the end and steal the win (or at least help your exotic). Dean’s Kitten has closed-in in all three of his 1 1/8 mile races in 2010 and has never let up at the end of a race. His trainer has showed in both of his starts at CD this year and posts an overall winning % of 20% in 2010.

    (10) Paddy O’Prado has showed in all three of his 2010 starts and shows the same closing threat as Dean’s Kitten. Oh yea, and Desormeaux is onboard, who is 4 (1,1,1) at CD this year and posts an overall winning % in 2010 of 17%. “Held Pace”, “Best Stride Late”, and “Drew Clear” are all signs that he can charge hard for that last furlong better than anyone else.

    Wildcards (someone feel free to talk me into or out of any either of these)
    (1) Looking at Lucky is the Racing Form favorite at 3-1, but all my analysis posts him as ‘just-OK’. Baffert IS the trainer here as well and the Baffert / Gomez combination is a good one, but Lucky has posted inconsistent speed numbers in all his races. The only time he’s run more than 1 1/16th was the Santa Anita Derby, where he dropped towards the end. I’d be a little afraid of betting the house on him in a long race like the Derby.

    (5) Line of David has posted fast times, but only on the Turf. He’s getting better, but his 3 wins this year are all against the lower half of tomorrow’s field (or worse). Great trainer in Sadler (both at CD & in 2010) and great results this year for Bejarano as well. The only real race he’s won was the Arkansas Derby, which was his last race and he pretty much led it wire to wire. Then again, I’m not impressed with the field in the Arkansas Derby.

    Just OK
    Both (3) Nobel’s Promise and (4) Super Saver can keep up with the big dogs, but that’s about it. They have proven to fade at the end of all their big races. If anything, they will clutter up the front of the pack, making it hard for one of the closers to pounce-in at the end. In any other race, I’d say they have had an impressive 2010, but against this field, I’d call it mediocre.

    No
    (2) Icebox
    (6) Stately Victor
    (7) American Lion (Can’t go the distance…slow, only win is against losers)
    (9) Make Music For Me (slow, low stakes)
    (14) Mission Impazible (successful races in 2010 were at slow times)
    (15) Discreetly Mine (successful races in 2010 were at slow times)
    (17) Dublin (Can not win big races. Big Speeds, just hangs with big dogs, but no late speed. OK, but not competitive)
    (18) Backtalk (Small races, poor times, slow speeds)
    (19) Homeboykris (WFT is this doing in the derby?)…just makes it easier for (20) Sidney’s Candy
    Last edited by PlayaDelWes; 05-01-2010 at 06:42 AM.

  26. #56
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    And the bets:
    (I adjusted these because I can't bet a 10 cent superfecta.)

    $.10 Superfecta (500 bets = $50) $1 Trifecta / $60
    12, 20 w/ 1,8,10,12,13,16,20 w/ 1,3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20 w/ 1,3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20

    $1 Trifecta (20 bets = $20)
    20 w/ 8,10,12,13,16 w/ 8,10,12,13,16


    $1 Exacta Box (12 bets = $12)
    12,13,16,20 w/ 12,13,16,20

    $.10 Superfecta (180 bets = $18) $1 Trifecta ($36)
    13,16 w/ 12,13,16,20 w/ 3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20 w/ 3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20

    That's ~$100

    I'm also thinking about doing some sort of hedge on #5 in case he comes in and screws all this up at 30-1. Like $5 to win and place or something. $5 w/p on 5 it is.
    Last edited by PlayaDelWes; 05-01-2010 at 10:31 AM.

  27. #57
    old school buddy's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    i went icebox to win. nothing big, just thought it be fun to take the odds.

  28. #58
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Uh, Oh. No $.10 superfecta at Churchill Downs. Only $1. Need to adjust slightly.
    Last edited by PlayaDelWes; 05-01-2010 at 07:20 AM.

  29. #59
    Old Gay Guy gaypalmsprings's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by SepaGroove View Post
    You shouldn't feel uncool for not going to EDC, you should feel uncool because you are uncool.

  30. #60
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayaDelWes View Post
    Uh, Oh. No $.10 superfecta at Churchill Downs. Only $1. Need to adjust slightly.
    Where are you seeing this?

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