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Thread: The 136th Running for the Roses

  1. #211
    Pedley Rocks JustSteve's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    If you had clicked on the link:

    "Make a simple syrup by boiling sugar and water together for five minutes. Cool and place in a covered container with six or eight sprigs of fresh mint, then refrigerate overnight. Make one julep at a time by filling a julep cup with crushed ice, adding one tablespoon mint syrup and two ounces of Kentucky Bourbon. Stir rapidly with a spoon to frost the outside of the cup. Garnish with a sprig of fresh mint."

  2. #212
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    My pick to win- Javas War. Spent a buttlod of money playing exacta and trifecta boxes with 8 horses...ugh.
    Last edited by fiopadp7791; 01-21-2014 at 09:43 AM.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
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    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  3. #213

    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    So want to bet. I just can't. That track is fucked.

  4. #214

    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Revolutionary to win it.

  5. #215

    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    3
    14
    12

    In that order

  6. #216
    Member kneuller's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    This is one sloppy track

  7. #217

    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    4 horse? Hahaha fuck the derby this year glad I didn't bet.

  8. #218
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by fiopadp7791 View Post

    Louisiana Derby
    Location- Fairgrounds (New Orleans)
    Date 3/30/13
    Surface- Dirt
    Distance 1 1/8 Miles

    Derby entrants in this clip (number listed next to them is their Kentucky Derby post position)-
    #3 Revolutionary
    #4 Golden Soul
    #6 Mylute
    #10 Palice Malice

    #4 Golden Soul
    Golden Soul is a last-minute Derby entrant. He didn't have enough qualifying points to be in the top 20, but with a few dropping out, he's now in the field. But... you can maybe take a little positivity out of this race for a horse that might just be the longest shot on the board- He got 4th in the Louisiana Derby, but was so far back in this race, that he closed from miles away to get that 4th place finish. He had to run widest around the track to do it too. If you watch the clip of this race, watch the #4 horse (yes he's the #4 horse in the Derby, but he was the #4 in the Louisiana Derby too). He breaks clean, but just is really sluggish coming out. As the race unfolds, you can't even see him in the screen he's so far back. But you see him start to pick off horses in the stretch. He never threatened to win the race, but it doesn't look like an extra 1/8 of a mile will be any issue for him. He'll be a deep closing type like Java's War. But is he as good as Java's War? So if you're playing exactas and trifectas, if you're looking for a big longshot underneath, he's not the worst horse to include.
    So... yeah... I didn't have any win $$$ on Orb, but I had him on top in both my exacta and trifecta boxes. But Golden Soul? Wut?!?!?!?... I did say some complimentary things about him. And unlike in the Louisiana Derby, today he broke sharply and was able to show off that closing kick on the rail. I think the only way anyone had Golden Soul in their exacta and tri tickets is if you went Orb with all, with all (meaning you bet the whole field to get 2nd and 3rd) in 2nd and 3rd lol. I just couldn't see it. Java's War was supposed to be the hard closer lol. But the last 2 sentences on my write-up on Golden Soul kinda came back to bite me lol (the bolded section in the quote).

    The question I have for the Preakness and Belmont going forward, will a lot of these horses try again if they think they can get a fast dirt track next out. The mud can f things up for a lot of these. But Orb has looked good all along, so this win today was no fluke. Much respect if you had a win ticket on him at 6-1. STEALING. STEALING!!!!
    Last edited by fiopadp7791; 05-04-2013 at 03:19 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  9. #219
    Member santasutt's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by fiopadp7791 View Post
    My pick to win- Javas War. Spenind a buttlod of money playing exacta and trifecta boxes with 8 horses...ugh.
    any hitz?


    Place Horse Jockey Trainer Post
    1 Orb Joel Rosario Claude R. McGaughey III 16
    2 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 4
    3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 3
    4 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano Chad Brown 5
    5 Mylute Rosie Napravnik Tom Amoss 6
    6 Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 2
    7 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 11
    8 Will Take Charge Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 17
    9 Charming Kitten Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 15
    10 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza Anthony W. Dutrow 7
    11 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 9
    12 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 10
    13 Java's War Julien Leparoux Kenny McPeek 19
    14 Verrazano John R. Velazquez Todd Pletcher 14
    15 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr. 12
    16 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron Kenny McPeek 18
    17 Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O'Neill 8
    18 Vyjack Garrett Gomez Rudy Rodriguez 20
    19 Falling Sky Luis Saez John Terranova II 13

    I combo'd Lines of Battle and Mylute a bunch of ways and got zilched.

  10. #220
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by santasutt View Post
    any hitz?


    Place Horse Jockey Trainer Post
    1 Orb Joel Rosario Claude R. McGaughey III 16
    2 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 4
    3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 3
    4 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano Chad Brown 5
    5 Mylute Rosie Napravnik Tom Amoss 6
    6 Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 2
    7 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 11
    8 Will Take Charge Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 17
    9 Charming Kitten Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 15
    10 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza Anthony W. Dutrow 7
    11 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 9
    12 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 10
    13 Java's War Julien Leparoux Kenny McPeek 19
    14 Verrazano John R. Velazquez Todd Pletcher 14
    15 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr. 12
    16 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron Kenny McPeek 18
    17 Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O'Neill 8
    18 Vyjack Garrett Gomez Rudy Rodriguez 20
    19 Falling Sky Luis Saez John Terranova II 13

    I combo'd Lines of Battle and Mylute a bunch of ways and got zilched.
    Nada. I had my win money on Verrazano and Java's War. I had Orb in exacta boxes, but no Golden Soul. I'm just glad I decided to pair down my exacta and trifecta tickets a little bit. They were expensive enough after being paired down, but I would've wasted more money on them if I didn't lol. Golden Soul would've been on none of my tickets.

    Because of the wet track, I wonder how many trainers will use that as an excuse to try again in the Preakness or wait for the Belmont in 2 weeks.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
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    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  11. #221
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Preakness picks-
    Orb, Governor Charlie, Departing.

    Not betting much on it, going heavy on the undercard instead
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  12. #222

    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Preakness picks-
    Orb, Governor Charlie, Departing.

    Good Lord man... Betting is just not your thing
    Quote Originally Posted by RotationSlimWang View Post
    Say goodbye to that acid, Greg.

  13. #223
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by bug on your lip View Post
    Good Lord man... Betting is just not your thing
    Quote Originally Posted by fiopadp7791 View Post

    Shot at 2012-05-05

    If it weren't for putting $100 on Creative Cause... but goddamn mid-stretch all three horses were 1-2-3. But Creative Cause just had no gas left. What coulda been if he held on for 3rd...
    Last year, I had a winning ticket on the Kentucky Derby. I had to take a picture of it, just to prove that it happened. Because that, and the other 2 Triple Crown races for that matter eternally curse me lol. And I only sort of won. I still picked the wrong winner and dumped a bunch of money on him, but I at east hit the big exacta to save my behind (won $750).

    Quote Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
    145TH BELMONT STAKES

    1 Frac Daddy Alan Garcia Kenny McPeek 30-1
    2 Freedom Child Luis Saez Tom Albertrani 8-1
    3 Overanalyze John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 12-1
    4 Giant Finish Edgar Prado Tony Dutrow 30-1
    5 Orb Joel Rosario Shug McGaughey 3-1
    6 Incognito Irad Ortiz Jr. Kiaran McLaughlin 20-1
    7 Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 5-1
    8 Midnight Taboo Garrett Gomez Todd Pletcher 30-1
    9 Revolutionary Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 9-2
    10 Will Take Charge Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 20-1
    11 Vyjack Julien Leparoux Rudy Rodriguez 20-1
    12 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 15-1
    13 Unlimited Budget Rosie Napravnik Todd Pletcher 8-1
    14 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 10-1

    So let's see if this blind squirrel can find his nut on Saturday for the Belmont. On paper, it might be the best race betting-wise in... decades? Orb (the Kentucky Derby winner) will be the luke-warm favorite, with Oxbow (the Preakness winner) and Revolutionary (3rd in the Kentucky Derby) will also be at short-odds. So if those are your favorites, and they look vulnerable, you can see that's not scaring off a lot of horses from trying to beat them this time around. I can't remember a Belmont that's had more than 10 or 11 horses in a lot of years, and this year has 14.

    For Orb to be in this race (3 races in 5 weeks), his trainer must think that the horse is still in good form, and maybe just didn't like the Pimlico surface (where the Preakness is run). So I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on Orb one more time. I plan on pairing him up with a bunch of longshots in exacta and trifecta bets.

    Freedom Child dominated a stakes race called the Peter Pan. The track was super muddy just like the Kentucky Derby was this year. He ran to the lead and never looked back. The Peter Pan is historically a race for 3 year olds not ready, or not good enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. So it's questionable what he beat, but he was so dominant in doing so, I wanna see if he can repeat that effort.

    Incognito was also one of the horses in the Peter Pan that was dominated by Freedom Child. But did he just hate the mud? He's owned by Sheikh Mohamed bin Rasheed al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai. The horse is so well-bred. They've brought him along slowly, and I'm thinking that since they're gving the Belmont a try, that's he's primed for a big effort.

    Todd Pletcher once again has an absurd amount of horses in this field. Including a filly running against the boys, with female Jockey Rosie Napravnik riding her. But I'm gonna try and beat that horse, and use one of his over-looked entrants- Overanalyze. The horse dominated the Arkansas Derby, and then got smoked in the Kentucky Derby. Just hoping with a month rest, and that maybe he hated the mud, that he has a big comeback in him.

    So Orb, with Overanalyze, Freedom Child, and Incognito. But as Bug pointed out, I haven't been right about much thus far.
    Last edited by fiopadp7791; 06-06-2013 at 08:55 AM.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  14. #224
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    It's gonna rain all day today at Belmont, and looks like could be the case tomorrow too due to what's left of that tropical storm going up the east coast.

    Horses that did well in the slop in the Kentucky Derby-
    Orb (he won)
    Golden Soul 2nd
    Revolutionary 3rd

    Freedom Child won easily in the slop in the Peter Pan run over this same Belmont Surface.

    So those guys are all good bets if the track is muddy, but you also won't get very good odds on any of them
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  15. #225
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    The Derby is next Saturday 5/3. Previews/descriptions/pro/cons/beginners guide for all entrants coming in the next couple days.

    Until then. Have a laugh with this. If you don't wanna watch the whole thing, watch the last 1:30 or so.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  16. #226
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by fiopadp7791 View Post
    If it's just a fun, casual day where you drink Mint Juleps, and pick the horse with a funny name or your favorite number, ok. But I figure I'll give you the scoop on the contenders this year. Mainly because I have nothing better to do lol.

    So just the basics- There will be 20 horses in the race, which can make it a complete crap-shoot. It's always for 3 year-olds only. It's at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. The race distance is a mile and a quarter, and the longest any of the entrants have run up to this point in their young careers is 1 1/8 miles. So not only are you dealing with a 20-horse traffic jam, but you're also unsure if they can handle running that far. A lot can't.

    The 20-horse field is determined by designated Derby Prep races held in the months before the Derby. But most horses qualify for the race in March and early April. So 2 other big "unknowns" going into these races- Is a lot of these horses haven't run against each other. The Derby prep races happen everywhere from Florida to New York to Louisiana to California to Dubai.... yes... Dubai. Further making things confusing is there are 2 different surfaces that these Derby Prep races occur on. Some tracks are comprised of a traditional dirt track. Churchill Downs is a dirt track. Others are a synthetic dirt surface which has been installed at a lot of places due to supposedly being safer for horses to run on (there are statistics that seem to back up that this surface is more safe). But the surface acts/feels much different to horses than traditional dirt does, and so you don't know how a horse will run on traditional dirt if he's only been running on synthetic. It's not always a deal-breaker though. Some horses take to it just fine. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby 3 years ago after only running on synthetic surfaces before that, and many other horses have placed well in the Derby who have never run on dirt going into Derby Day.

    My next post will break down some of the main Derby favorites along with some Youtube clips if you have the patience to watch them.
    Ok guys, the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday 5/3. I decided to give you a quoted description from last year (with a few minor edits) to kinda give you the general gist of what the horses entered in the Derby have done leading up to the race, and some of the factors/unknowns heading into the Derby. As far as the Dubai reference is concerned. The top 2 finishers from the UAE Derby (the Dubai qualifier for the Kentucky Derby) have decided to pass on the Kentucky Derby. So that prep race won't have any representatives in the Derby field.

    I'd like to think I actually know what I'm talking about in terms of horse racing in general. But as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned, I'm terrible at picking winners and more importantly cashing winning tickets on it. I'm pretty much cursed. So the following breakdown is intended to be a fairly unbiased description pros/cons for each horse, so you can make up your own mind on who you'd like to bet on/cheer for the Derby. Because the last thing you wanna do is use my crummy picks lol. You'll get Youtube clips of the major preps they've raced in, so you can see how they've run in a given race to give you a general idea of things.

    Like last year, if you're a beginner, I'm not trying to throw too much jargon/weird terminology at you. I'm trying to make the descriptions so you can easily understand what the heck I'm talking about. If you have any questions about anything I've posted, feel free to post a question/comment or message me.


    If you've never bet on a horse race before, and need help with how to do that (and what the different bets are, I'll cover/link that in a future post)

    Ok onto this year specifically. It's been extremely wide open in terms of Derby preps. Everyone has beaten everyone. Soooo wide open in fact, that there are have been 34 races that offer points towards getting into the Kentucky Derby. 30 different horses have won those 34 races lol. Very few horses have won back-to-back prep races this winter/spring. So a lot of the betting favorites will be the "what have you done for me lately?" horses. The ones that have won the most recent prep races run in the last month. So it's a good of a race as ever to give longshots a serious look in either winning or finishing in the top 3.

    But there has been one constant among this group of 3 year olds- And he will be the betting favorite (and rightfully so): California Chrome. He's on a 4-race winning streak. He hasn't just won these races, he's won them easily. But more info on him in the next post.

    If you're reading this before Wednesday night 4/30, the post positions won't be drawn until then. So we won't know which horse is running in the 1-hole, the 20-hole or any slot in between until then. I'll edit these posts at the time when they become available.

    If you know how to read a past-performance guide, here's a very preliminary one from Daily Racing Form with entrants listed in order of qualifying points they've accumulated.
    http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...%20Derby_0.pdf
    One with Post positions (Brisnet)
    http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Derby.pdf
    If you're a beginner that doesn't know how to read these, no sweat. That's what the following posts are here for. To give you basic, yet more in-depth analysis of each horse. So as I said, you can make up your own mind.

    Horse-by-horse breakdown will be done by the prep race as opposed to going 1-20, because a lot of these horses have faced each other already. So it's easier to list the horses that have run in each major prep, and give the breakdown from there (like I did for last year's posts). You'll see what I mean in the following posts.

    Here's the current field thus far-
    5/3/14 Kentucky Derby 1 1/4M - CD:

    Horse (Trainer/Jockey)
    11th (6:24) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)

    1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

    1 1 Vicar's in Trouble Napravnik R Maker Michael J 126 L 30-1
    2 2 Harry's Holiday Lanerie C J Maker Michael J 126 L 50-1
    3 3 Uncle Sigh Ortiz I Jr Contessa Gary C 126 Blk-On L 30-1
    4 4 Danza Bravo J Pletcher Todd A 126 L 10-1
    5 5 California Chrome Espinoza V Sherman Art 126 L 5-2
    6 6 Samraat Ortiz J L Violette, Jr. R A 126 L 15-1
    7 7 We Miss Artie Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 126 L 50-1
    8 8 General a Rod Rosario J Maker Michael J 126 L 15-1
    9 9 Vinceremos Rocco J S Jr Pletcher Todd A 126 L 30-1
    10 10 Wildcat Red Saez L Garoffalo Jose 126 L 15-1
    11 11 Hoppertunity SCRATCHED
    12 12 Dance With Fate Nakatani C S Eurton Peter 126 L 20-1
    13 13 Chitu Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 L 20-1
    14 14 Medal Count Albarado R J Romans Dale 126 L 20-1
    15 15 Tapiture Santana R Jr Asmussen Steven M 126 L 15-1
    16 16 Intense Holiday Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 L 12-1
    17 17 Commanding Curve Bridgmohan S X Stewart Dallas 126 L 50-1
    18 18 Candy Boy Stevens G L Sadler John W 126 L 20-1
    19 19 Ride On Curlin Borel C H Gowan William 126 L 15-1
    20 20 Wicked Strong Maragh R Jerkens James A 126 L 8-1

    The odds listed are odds that a horse is projected to go off at when the race starts, but the accuracy of these varies.
    Alright, time for me to shut up and get to the breakdown. Hope I haven't lost y'all yet.
    Last edited by fiopadp7791; 05-02-2014 at 04:27 PM.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
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    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  17. #227
    Coachella Junkie Neighborhood Creep's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    What horse would Amyzzz most likely be attracted to?
    Quote Originally Posted by theklein25 View Post
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    I'm going to come back to this thread after the Wild game so I have an idea who to put some money on
    Quote Originally Posted by roboto View Post
    And stinkbutt leaving a motorhead set when you know he's dying just to talk shit ? Your a shitty person as well .please let mja give you an anal love disease .

  19. #229
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by stinkbutt View Post
    I'm going to come back to this thread after the Wild game so I have an idea who to put some money on
    you may wanna come back in a couple days lol, these posts may take a little bit to put together. But I'll try to have them all done by Wed or Thur at the latest
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

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    Member santasutt's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    One of my favorite threads.

    If only to find out what horse to not bet on in the Derby. LOL.

    Gotta ride the streak, right?

    California Chrome has learned how to embarrass the field this year with those finishes. Wow.

  21. #231
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    I think we should start off with the Santa Anita Derby. Because the race features the likely Kentucky Derby betting favorite- California Chrome.


    2014 Santa Anita Derby
    Date- 4/5/2014
    Location- Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, CA)
    Surface- Dirt
    Distance- 1 1/8 miles

    Derby entrants in this clip-
    California Chrome
    Candy Boy


    California Chrome
    Derby Post Position: #5
    Morning Line (predicted) odds: 5-2
    If you watched the vid above, you see why California Chrome will be the Kentucky Derby favorite. Most are anticipating he'll be between 2-1 & 3-1 for the Derby (and based on what he's done, those odds are pretty fair).
    Reasons to believe he's the real deal:
    -He's won 4 races in a row, and done so with ease. In fact, he's smashed his competition in those 4 races. His closest competitor was 5 lengths behind him.
    -He runs close to the lead. In the Derby, a lot of times the race is a 20-horse traffic jam. Especially at the beginning and towards the final turn when horses are making their late runs. With his running style keeping him close to the front, he's less likely to have traffic issues compared to the horses that are trying to run him down from behind.
    -Drew the #5 post for the Derby, which should suit his running style. Means he most likely won't be running wide around turns with 15 horses to his outside.
    -The trainer: Art Sherman. He's 77, been a steady trainer on the SoCal racing circuit for decades, but has never trained a Kentucky Derby entrant (although he was 1955 Derby winner Swaps' exercise rider lol... yes... 1955 lol). Makes for a great story about a capable trainer that finally got his superstar horse. A nice underdog story to cheer for

    NEGATIVES:
    -He's only raced in California. In fact, this is the first time the horse has probably ever been out of California for anything. How will he travel? How will he take to the Churchill track? He just shipped into Churchill today, and a lot of times horses need time to acclimate to their new surroundings, and it's not good when their routines are broken. It's anyone's guess how this will effect C.C. Some horses can travel anywhere and they have no performance issues, and others hate it and don't have their best efforts. That is the big question with this horse. How will he handle his new surroundings? He will get a run over the track to get a feel for things before the race.
    -Who has he beaten? A lot of nay-sayers for this horse will argue that the California-based horses he's run against aren't that good. But he has beaten Hoppertunity, and Candy Boy who have won other Derby prep races this year. Also, as mentioned, even if the competition has been weak, he's done what's he supposed to against them- Smashed 'em. So mixed signals?
    -His pedigree doesn't scream "Derby Potential". His daddy thrived running on grass and at sprint distances (less than a mile). His mama won 1 career race in 6 starts. So definite questions about his pedigree and if he can handle running 1 1/4 miles. But his bloodlines are just as underdogish as the trainer himself
    -I listed the positive traits for the horse's trainer, Art Sherman. But the fact that he's never trained a Derby horse before, and rarely ships horses to race out of California can leave doubts in peoples minds that he's preparing the horse properly for the big race. 50+ years of training experience vs no experience in the biggest race? More mixed signals?

    I do feel like the "negatives" are a little nit-picky, but they are legitimate concerns. Overall, California Chrome is the deserving favorite due to what he's accomplished thus far.

    Candy Boy
    Post position: #18
    Morning Line Odds: 20-1
    POSITIVES:
    -Candy Boy is very likely to improve off this distant 3rd-place effort, because the Santa Anita Derby was his first race off of a 2-month break. When horses have that big of a break, they're usually rusty and not the most fit their first race back. So eventhough California Chrome trounced him here, he might've not been in the best shape going into it. Horses usually have much-improved efforts in their 2nd and 3rd starts off those long breaks.
    -His trainer John Sadler is a top California-based trainer, who hasn't won the Derby before, but has sent runners to the Derby in the past
    -His jockey is Gary Stevens. Multiple Kentucky Derby winner Gary Stevens. Future Hall of Famer Gary Stevens. And Stevens has ridden Candy Boy in his last 3 races, so the familiarity is there.
    -The horse won a minor Derby prep race back in February where he beat fellow Derby entrant Chitu in that race.
    -He's really well-bred, by top sire Candy Ride, who won his final race at 1 1/4 miles. Definite stamina top-end pedigree, and his mama held her own vs top graded stakes competition during her career at long distances.
    -Like Hoppertunity, the horse has a versatile running style where he could be very close to the lead like he was in the vid above, or he can sit further back and make a nice closing run.

    NEGATIVES:
    -California Chrome crushed him in this race. Even if he improves, how much can he improve?
    -Like California Chrome, he's only raced in California. How will he handle shipping to Kentucky?
    -Only has 2 lifetime wins, where the caliber of competition in those races was very suspect
    -Is in the #18 post position, which means he could be running very wide around the turns early on (losing ground and energy on turns). He may be forced to run from further behind to save ground early on.

    Overall, I think you'll get the right odds on this horse if you think he can improve off this Santa Anita performance. Jockey/trainer definite+, but wide post position a concern.

    If you think California Chrome is the real deal, and will win the Derby, it may not be such a bad idea to use Candy Boy in exacta and trifecta bets. A lot of times, eventhough horses are coming from all different parts of the US to race in the Derby, sometimes horses coming from the same preps end up being the dominant horses in the Derby. So if you like C.C., don't be afraid to include Candy Boy as well.
    Last edited by fiopadp7791; 05-01-2014 at 09:27 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  22. #232
    Member fiopadp7791's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    holy shit... sorry to ramble on. That took forever to type out and put together. I'll try to be more concise with future posts. But the info I mentioned is fairly "dumbed down", so you can understand all the rambling lol. Hopefully I'm not getting a lot of "tl;dr" reactions right now lol
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  23. #233
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Take a deep breath, dude. You're doing fine.

    On to the Wood Memorial...

  24. #234
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    The Wood Memorial

    The Wood Memorial
    Date of Race: April 5, 2014
    Location: Aqueduct (NYC)
    Surface: Dirt
    Distance 1 1/8 miles

    Derby Entrants in this clip-
    Wicked Strong
    Samraat
    Uncle Sigh


    Wicked Strong
    Derby Post Position #20
    Morning Line Odds: 8-1
    He is definitely a "what have you done for me lately?" horse. As you can see from the clip above, Wicked Strong won the Wood Memorial in pretty dominant fashion. The way he was able to close on 2 very gritty, salty front-runners in that race and blow by them is a very good sign moving forward to the Kentucky Derby. But he also has some serious questions marks as well.
    POSITIVES:
    -The way he won the Wood was very encouraging. Sat about mid-pack in the Wood, and had a very impressive closing kick. With a somewhat clean trip (lack of traffic trouble) in the Derby he could be very dangerous with that same run.
    -He is very well-bred. His daddy finished 2nd in the Derby and his mama's dad was Charismatic, who almost won the Triple Crown. Should have no problem going 1 1/4 miles.
    -Hasn't ducked the competition at age 2 or 3, has been battle tested vs very good competition in NY and Florida
    -Trainer holds his own on a very tough NY racing circuit. Has also been to the Derby before with Quality Road in 2009

    NEGATIVES:
    -There are concerns that the Wood might've been a fluke effort. His 2 races before the Wood were in Florida. He finished 9th and was well-behind Derby entrant Intense Holiday in one race, and a non-competitive 4th vs lesser competition in another. Maybe he didn't like Florida? Because he's never finished worse than 3rd in all his other starts in NY. So which Wicked Strong shows up in the Derby? The NY version, or the Florida version?
    -If he gets too far back in the Derby, he could encounter serious traffic issues when trying to uncork his late closing run
    -He drew the most outside post position in the race- #20. Which means he could potentially be widest running around turns. But since he comes from behind, his jockey may be able to take him back early on and find a pocket to settle into. If he were a front-runner this would be way more of an issue, but maybe not as much for him?

    Horse has a good chance to win the Derby if he can repeat the Wood effort. He'll be flying late.

    Samraat
    Derby Post Position: #6
    Morning Line Odds: 15-1
    Samraat provides mixed signals. The Wood was a little bit of a disappointing race for him, because eventhough he finished 2nd, he was undefeated going into the race. But it was the way he finished 2nd that a lot of pundits are questioning his ability to win the Derby.
    POSITIVES-
    -Before the Wood, he ran in 2 minor Derby preps, both at Aqueduct, and won both (beating Uncle Sigh both times and finishing ahead of him in the Wood).
    -Has a running style that could be very effective on Derby Day. He is the classic stalker. He'll be sitting right behind the front-runners and will have first chance to run them down.
    -High win % trainer on tough NY circuit.
    -Has had the same jockey for all of his races
    -Tough to fault a horse whose worst lifetime finish is 2nd place.
    -#6 post position should fit his running style well, since he runs close to the lead he should be able to have an inside run (not running wide, using up too much energy around turns)

    NEGATIVES
    -Serious questions about who he had beaten while undefeated. He was bred in New York so had raced against against other NY-only horses in his first 3 starts. In his 2 stakes victories before the Wood, the competition has seemed very weak beyond Uncle Sigh
    -In the Wood, he had every chance to blow by front-runner 3rd-place finisher Social Inclusion, but couldn't. He seemed like he was flat and out of gas. He passed him right at the end, but seemed very tired, which questions if he wants to run 1 1/4 miles.
    -Samraat has never raced outside New York. How will he handle the change of scenery in Kentucky?

    He has a running style that should position him well to make a run at the front-runners in the Derby. But then what? How much further does he want to run? Something good to be said for a horse that's never finished worse than 2nd his whole career. You'll get great odds on him if you think he can rebound in the Derby.

    Uncle Sigh
    Post Position #3
    Morning Line Odds: 30-1
    This race doesn't show what Uncle Sigh is all about. He completely missed the start, and then got hung out so wide that he couldn't do what he always does: GO TO THE LEAD. He's a balls-to-the-wall speed horse who will run hard for as long as he can, show plenty of heart along the way, and hope to hold on at the end.
    POSITIVES:
    -He couldn't have asked for a better post position. As long as he starts cleanly, he will get the lead and the inside track with that #3 post.
    -He's trained by Gary Contessa, who is among the leaders in training wins in NY annually. Surprisingly he's never sent a horse to the Derby before, but the trainer has been a win-machine over his 30-year training career.
    -His front-running style will keep him out of trouble in the Derby.
    -His daddy finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby with the same front-running style

    NEGATIVES:
    -Finished behind Samraat in the 3 times they've run vs each other (but 2 were very close).
    -Won't be the only front-runner in Derby. Wildcat Red, Chitu, and a few others could all be challenging for the lead. When they duel for the lead, they expend more energy trying to get the lead. Questions on whether he can conserve enough energy to go that far.
    -If he misses the start like he did in the Wood, his Derby is over right at the beginning.
    -Has never raced outside of NY, so how will he handle his new surroundings?

    I think he has potential to hang around in the Derby very close to the finish if he can get to the lead without getting in a red-hot speed duel with some of the other front-running entrants. He could be one of the longest shots in the race, so if you think his speed can carry him all the way, you'll get the right odds to take the risk.

    This group of 3 is very tough to gauge, because they have some very good things going for them, and some things that make you wonder if they'll bring their A+ game to Kentucky? But Wicked Strong does look dangerous if he repeats his Wood Memorial effort.
    Last edited by fiopadp7791; 04-30-2014 at 08:10 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  25. #235
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    I know you guys are on the edge of your seats for the rest of the preview. It'll be finished by tomorrow night. Post position draw is later this afternoon. I will update that info when it comes available.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  26. #236
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    The Toyota Bluegrass Stakes

    The Bluegrass Stakes
    Date of Race: April 12, 2014
    Location: Keeneland (Lexington, KY)
    Surface: Polytrack (synthetic dirt)
    Distance: 1 1/8 Miles

    Derby Entrants in this Clip:
    Dance With Fate
    Medal Count
    Vinceremos
    Harry's Holiday


    Dance With Fate
    Post Position: #12
    Morning Line: 20-1
    Dance With Fate won this in pretty impressive fashion. He outfinished Medal Count, who got an early jump on him, and drew away late. But there are some serious concerns regarding his potential to win the Derby.
    Positives:
    -He won this race with an impressive closing kick. But he didn't close from way back. He sat mid-pack, and made a well-timed move which propelled him to the win. A repeat of this effort in the Derby makes him very dangerous.
    -He's a California-based horse, but this race shows that he can ship east and win. It should erase doubts in his ability to handle shipping to Churchill Downs and acclimating.
    -The horse overall has been battle-tested at both ages 2 and 3. Hasn't always won, but hasn't embarrassed himself either. Could be rounding into peak form right now.

    Negatives:
    - He has never won a race on real dirt. He actually hasn't run a race on dirt since last November in the Breeders Cup. In 2 starts on dirt he's finished 2nd and 8th (albeit against good competition in stakes races). So how will he handle the Churchill surface?
    - Has had a tendency to have some slow starts in his races. If he doesn't start well in the Derby, he'll be well back and fighting traffic coming home
    - His trainer holds his own on the SoCal racing circuit, but has never had a Derby runner.
    - Trainer said right after the Bluegrass win he was leaning towards not running him in the Derby. Did he change his mind? Did the owners of the horse make him enter the horse here? Why would he think that after winning a big race like this?
    - Horse's breeding doesn't exactly scream Derby contender. But he's impressive to look at and fetched a high auction price (especially for his modest breeding). Mixed signals?

    Overall, the horse is in really good form, but the fact that he hasn't raced on dirt since November, nor won on it, is cause for concern. But if you believe he can move over the Churchill surface like he did in the vid above, you have a really good chance at a Derby win or top 3 finish.

    Medal Count
    Post Position: #14
    Morning Line: 20-1

    Medal Count is an interesting horse in this race. He could be a monster, or he may be a non-factor. Eventhough he was a well-beaten 2nd to Dance with Fate in the vid above, he may have as much potential to win the Derby as Dance with Fate does.

    Positives:
    -He's very well-bred, and has a classic pedigree you'd like for a Derby horse.
    -Has the ability to show a good closing kick like some of the other Derby contenders, but he also has the ability to do it stalking the leaders. He may have less traffic issues because of that
    -Has been battle tested vs some of the best 2yos & 3yos, and have travelled to Kentucky, California and Florida to run his races.
    -His trainer Dale Romans has never won the Derby, but all of his Derby runners have never placed worst than 5th.
    -Won 2 races ago, and finished 2nd here, so looks to be rounding into top form right now.

    Negatives:
    -Only 1 win on dirt, and other performances on dirt in California and Florida didn't go well
    -Was beaten handily by Derby runners Wildcat Red and Uncle Sigh in Florida back in March
    -Derby will be his 3rd race in a month. Horses usually go 3 weeks-month without running.

    Horse seems to be in good form right now, trainer is one of the best in the biz, and distance shouldn't be an issue for him. But serious questions about his ability to run his best on dirt. He'll need to to have a chance.

    #2 Harry's Holiday and #9 Vinceremos finished well back in this race. I'll go more in-depth on these 2 in different posts. I think Vinceremos especially had excuses for why he didn't give his best effort here, but I'll explain that in a later post.
    Last edited by fiopadp7791; 05-02-2014 at 05:06 AM.
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  27. #237
    old school kvnty's Avatar
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Sincerely hope none of you stupid mother fuckers (or your stupid mother fucking family and friends) ever have to endure as much pain, cruelty and suffering these defenseless animals do for your entertainment.
    Quote Originally Posted by fakekvnty View Post
    All you ladybois want inside this pink slip
    Quote Originally Posted by fakekvnty View Post
    You bitchez will all CUM-ba-ya when y'all see my pee-shooter.
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  28. #238
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    under positives and negatives, should I put down which ones have endured more cruelty than the others?
    If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... -Kanye West
    Jamiroquai 2015 please.
    Quote Originally Posted by miscorrections View Post
    How is any of that ironic? On this board I absolutely expect terrible people to call other people terrible.

  29. #239
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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    You should put your mother fucking mouth on my tight pink hole, you stupid fucking dipshit.
    Quote Originally Posted by fakekvnty View Post
    All you ladybois want inside this pink slip
    Quote Originally Posted by fakekvnty View Post
    You bitchez will all CUM-ba-ya when y'all see my pee-shooter.
    Follow kvny on instagram :: "Lorde is my shepherd. I shall not want."

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    Default Re: The 136th Running for the Roses

    Quote Originally Posted by kvnty View Post
    You should put your mother fucking mouth on my tight pink hole, you stupid fucking dipshit.
    I hope he stabs you
    Quote Originally Posted by theklein25 View Post
    When Foster the People played Pumped Up Kicks I freaked the fuck out because I thought that song was long gone

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