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Thread: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    In the last few weeks I have been getting a nagging feeling that Mitt Romney might actually win.
    "why are you so annoying" TheKlein25

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    Peaceful Oasis TomAz's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Eat more fiber.
    Quote Originally Posted by efrain44 View Post
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    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Ahh, sabermetrics applied to presidential elections. Part of me wonders why this sort of thing wasn't already the standard but there are still many reports on nationwide polls that purport to be meaningful.
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    Peaceful Oasis TomAz's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Yeah that sort of thing is interesting and all but one shouldn't read too much significance into the results. It's all poll-based and we all know polls can be flawed (young people underrepresented, etc). No matter how scientific their polling methodology, though, when you split data that fine you run into statistical credibility issues. Also the types of information they are supplying has to be based on extrapolations and judgment-based assumptions. All of which means this is an interesting way to form a framework to think about issues, but the numbers themselves are probably pretty squishy.
    Quote Originally Posted by efrain44 View Post
    Anyone know who the guy in the Cardinals jersey is? I've seen him in pictures on the board and I thought I saw him this year.

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    Coachella Junkie summerkid's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Yup, the best recent example is the Wisconsin recall election. CNN was reporting that exit polling data showed Walker and Barrett as being 50-50 and Walker ended up winning by 6 points.
    The White Stripes 9/18

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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    That was a little different though, because that was just the first wave of exits. The same thing happened with a bunch of exit polls in the Republican primaries where Drudge and others would leak big Romney wins only to see Santorum close the gap in the later wave of exits.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

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    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    Yeah that sort of thing is interesting and all but one shouldn't read too much significance into the results. It's all poll-based and we all know polls can be flawed (young people underrepresented, etc). No matter how scientific their polling methodology, though, when you split data that fine you run into statistical credibility issues. Also the types of information they are supplying has to be based on extrapolations and judgment-based assumptions. All of which means this is an interesting way to form a framework to think about issues, but the numbers themselves are probably pretty squishy.
    I don't understand any of what you're getting at. Of course current results aren't binding and no one should treat this as a closed race.

    Also is the problem that it is all polls or that it includes extrapolations and judgment?

    And how is polling a thousand people in an attempt to get a balanced sample from the entire country have less statistical credibility issues than polling a thousand people from a single state? That's the comparison I mean to highlight: the former is almost meaningless while the latter points to a vote that will actually decide a thing.
    Last edited by mountmccabe; 06-08-2012 at 04:15 AM.
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    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    I mean, the state-by-state polls are going to happen. Since that data is there it makes sense to aggregate them state-by-state and watch for trends. And those state-by-state results to build a predicted result from the electoral college. The innovation I see is looking at the 538 rather than the 120 million or whatever.

    I haven't had a chance to study all the newer models and methods but getting 49 states plus DC right in 2008 does not, to me, suggest squishiness.
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    Old Gay Guy gaypalmsprings's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread


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    Coachella Junkie Miroir Noir's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Here's the required pre-veep pick reading on Paul Ryan, from Jonathan Chait and Ryan Lizza.

    As a liberal, I love this pick. It should force the Republicans to run on the specifics of what they are actually planning on doing if they win the election, most of which happens to be incredibly unpopular when explained to voters. At the same time, I have a bit of fear: Ryan is not a Palinesque fuckup. This guy is a total operator, and even if I dont agree that he's the policy guru and "serious" thinker that the press all too happily report him to be, he is unquestionably a dynamic figure with a very real agenda to unmake the New Deal and Great Society. You don't get elected to Congress at age 28, become the chair of the most important House committee at age 42, and convince basically everyone in your party to pronounce their undying fealty to whatever you want to do unless you are an immense political talent.
    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

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    man-homie obzen's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    You secretly jock Paul Ryan, bitch.

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    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    It's not a bad pick. Romney's not going to win this unless things change fairly significantly. Ryan will shake things up more than some safer choices would. I guess we'll see how much and where things fall.
    Quote Originally Posted by SoulDischarge View Post
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by canexplain View Post
    To you guys I say Wat?????????? Off to ?????? ....... cr****
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    It's hard to argue with that.

  15. #15
    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    The crazy thing is that Obama does not even need FL, VA or OH to win.

    Obama is also leading in CO, IA, NH, WI, NV (and other more states Romney has less of a chance in) that puts him at 272.

    There's almost two months to go and plenty can happen but, wow.
    Quote Originally Posted by SoulDischarge View Post
    See how wrong you are, Tommy? Randy is agreeing with you.

  16. #16

    Default Re: 2012 US Presidential Election Thread

    Romney is still leading in the 'Entitled White Guy" vote

    but has been declining with Women & Latino voters.
    None of this should be a surprise. He doesn't have the demographics to win
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