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Thread: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

  1. #391
    Member insbordnat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    It's overpriced at $14 plain and simple. I could go into the many reasons why but I don't have the time. Sure, you could buy it at $17, hope there are people going to buy into the hype and make a couple of bucks, but here the problem - it's extremely speculative, and there is a reasonable possibility it will just go down. Unless you have a ton of money and/or risk adverse, then have fun, otherwise I'd say the majority of people on this board should not be dicking around with IPOs when the underlying fundamentals of the company are crap.
    northside groove...southside groove....eastside groove...westside groove

  2. #392

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Underlying fundamentals? Speculation = the stock market.

  3. #393
    Member insbordnat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Have fun with your purchase. This is what I do for a living.
    northside groove...southside groove....eastside groove...westside groove

  4. #394

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Cool story. Why dont you answer the question? Just because your data models do your job for you doesn't mean much to me.

  5. #395
    Member insbordnat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Don't be stupid. You don't know me, and your "data models do your job for you" statement is just silly. I'm not going to waste my time for a dipshit like you. Rather if you want to have an intelligent discussion, ask a real question and I'll give you a real answer.
    northside groove...southside groove....eastside groove...westside groove

  6. #396
    Endearingly Dislikable RotationSlimWang's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Saw this article. If you have any money tied up in stocks, it might be worth a read/watch. http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/bil...source=taboola

    Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why
    Wednesday, August 29, 2012 05:33 PM
    By: Newsmax Wires

    Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

    Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

    In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

    With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

    Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

    Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

    Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

    So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

    After all, the stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally leveled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations. And the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.

    It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

    One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock.

    Editor’s Note: Wiedemer Gives Proof for His Dire Predictions in This Shocking Interview.

    Before you dismiss the possibility of a 90% drop in the stock market as unrealistic, consider Wiedemer’s credentials.

    In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. They published their research in the book America’s Bubble Economy.

    The book quickly grabbed headlines for its accuracy in predicting what many thought would never happen, and quickly established Wiedemer as a trusted voice.

    A columnist at Dow Jones said the book was “one of those rare finds that not only predicted the subprime credit meltdown well in advance, it offered Main Street investors a winning strategy that helped avoid the forty percent losses that followed . . .”

    The chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s said that Wiedemer’s track record “demands our attention.”

    And finally, the former CFO of Goldman Sachs said Wiedemer’s “prescience in (his) first book lends credence to the new warnings. This book deserves our attention.”

    In the interview for his latest blockbuster Aftershock, Wiedemer says the 90% drop in the stock market is “a worst-case scenario,” and the host quickly challenged this claim.

    Wiedemer calmly laid out a clear explanation of why a large drop of some sort is a virtual certainty.

    It starts with the reckless strategy of the Federal Reserve to print a massive amount of money out of thin air in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

    “These funds haven’t made it into the markets and the economy yet. But it is a mathematical certainty that once the dam breaks, and this money passes through the reserves and hits the markets, inflation will surge,” said Wiedemer.

    “Once you hit 10% inflation, 10-year Treasury bonds lose about half their value. And by 20%, any value is all but gone. Interest rates will increase dramatically at this point, and that will cause real estate values to collapse. And the stock market will collapse as a consequence of these other problems.”

    See the Proof: Get the Full Interview by Clicking Here Now.

    And this is where Wiedemer explains why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros could be dumping U.S. stocks:

    “Companies will be spending more money on borrowing costs than business expansion costs. That means lower profit margins, lower dividends, and less hiring. Plus, more layoffs.”

    No investors, let alone billionaires, will want to own stocks with falling profit margins and shrinking dividends. So if that’s why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros are dumping stocks, they have decided to cash out early and leave Main Street investors holding the bag.

    But Main Street investors don’t have to see their investment and retirement accounts decimated for the second time in five years.

    Wiedemer’s video interview also contains a comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.

    Now viewed over 40 million times, it was initially screened for a relatively small, private audience. But the overwhelming amount of feedback from viewers who felt the interview should be widely publicized came with consequences, as various online networks repeatedly shut it down and affiliates refused to house the content.

    “People were sitting up and taking notice, and they begged us to make the interview public so they could easily share it,” said Newsmax Financial Publisher Aaron DeHoog.

    “Our real concern,” DeHoog added, “is the effect even if only half of Wiedemer’s predictions come true.

    “That’s a scary thought for sure. But we want the average American to be prepared, and that is why we will continue to push this video to as many outlets as we can. We want the word to spread.”

    Editor’s Note: For a limited time, Newsmax is showing the Wiedemer interview and supplying viewers with copies of the new, updated Aftershock book including the final, unpublished chapter. Go here to view it now.
    Quote Originally Posted by amyzzz View Post
    Hannah, I don't know that pigs have big weiners, and my early 20's facination with dogs because of weiner size, I think. If that helps.

  7. #397
    Can't Post anymore. bummer Zafocaine's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    What would Martha Stewart do? WWMSD (for investors)

  8. #398
    Dark Lord mountmccabe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Thanks for the article from six months ago. From a conservative news magazine in the lead up to the election. With very limited information and a lot of sensationalist bullshit. They could not have possibly had any ulterior motives.

    Things dropped a little bit around the election but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8% over the last three months and NASDAQ Composite Index is up more than 6% and Standard & Poor's 500 is up almost 8% over the same time period. They're all up from when that article came out, too. Look for yourself, if you want.
    Quote Originally Posted by guedita View Post
    I feel like dad-rock wouldn't get so bad of a rep if we called it pop-rock

  9. #399
    Endearingly Dislikable RotationSlimWang's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Ha, I didn't even notice the date. Fucking internet, misleading me yet again.
    Quote Originally Posted by amyzzz View Post
    Hannah, I don't know that pigs have big weiners, and my early 20's facination with dogs because of weiner size, I think. If that helps.

  10. #400
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    So, this has been going on for some time now.


  11. #401
    Member nahuatldream's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    NOBAMA!
    Upcoming: 04/11/14-04/13/14 - Coachella Weekend One; 04/18/14-04/20/14 - Coachella Weekend Two; 08/19/14 - NIN/Soundgarden (Isleta Amphitheater - Albuquerque, NM)

  12. #402
    Member insbordnat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Post hoc ergo propter hoc
    northside groove...southside groove....eastside groove...westside groove

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    Member ramblinon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by insbordnat View Post
    It's overpriced at $14 plain and simple. I could go into the many reasons why but I don't have the time. Sure, you could buy it at $17, hope there are people going to buy into the hype and make a couple of bucks, but here the problem - it's extremely speculative, and there is a reasonable possibility it will just go down. Unless you have a ton of money and/or risk adverse, then have fun, otherwise I'd say the majority of people on this board should not be dicking around with IPOs when the underlying fundamentals of the company are crap.
    Yeppers... totally overpriced at $14. Would have sucked to get it at that price and have it nearly double in a year.

    And this is why you don't give absolutes and "plain and simple"s in the markets.

    Yelp.jpg

  14. #404

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayaDelWes View Post
    So, this has been going on for some time now.

    Soooo..

    ...what's gonna happen?
    Quote Originally Posted by TomAz View Post
    Hey here's an idea. You know those people who are desperately poor, down on their luck, uneducated, abused, and generally ill-equipped for life? Let's make fun of them.

  15. #405
    Member insbordnat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by ramblinon View Post
    Yeppers... totally overpriced at $14. Would have sucked to get it at that price and have it nearly double in a year.

    And this is why you don't give absolutes and "plain and simple"s in the markets.

    Yelp.jpg
    Easy to Monday-morning quarterback it. Would have easily sucked to have it tank. I never said don't buy it, because there was no way it's going to go up - rather I was giving my opinion of the value of the company, which doesn't necessarily correlate to its stock price. Beta of 5 with implied volatilities anywhere from 50-70% don't make this a suitable investment for anyone on this board unless either you are rich and/or you have money to burn. Trading at 10x book value with an adjusted EBITDA multiple of 339x doesn't reflect a stock that anyone worth a half a brain should be fucking around with, unless you have it as a small % of your porfolio. Taking that money and putting into an S&P index fund would have yielded a 10% annualized return with a fraction of the risk.

    My plain and simple statement was that of opinon shortened for brevity, and nothing in my follow on statements made my statement an absolute, you're just taking it out of context.
    northside groove...southside groove....eastside groove...westside groove

  16. #406

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    I am always right.

  17. #407
    Member ramblinon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by insbordnat View Post
    Easy to Monday-morning quarterback it. Would have easily sucked to have it tank. I never said don't buy it, because there was no way it's going to go up - rather I was giving my opinion of the value of the company, which doesn't necessarily correlate to its stock price. Beta of 5 with implied volatilities anywhere from 50-70% don't make this a suitable investment for anyone on this board unless either you are rich and/or you have money to burn. Trading at 10x book value with an adjusted EBITDA multiple of 339x doesn't reflect a stock that anyone worth a half a brain should be fucking around with, unless you have it as a small % of your porfolio. Taking that money and putting into an S&P index fund would have yielded a 10% annualized return with a fraction of the risk.

    My plain and simple statement was that of opinon shortened for brevity, and nothing in my follow on statements made my statement an absolute, you're just taking it out of context.
    1) I'd posit that beta is pretty much useless for a stock that's only been around for a year.

    2) those valuations aren't that uncommon in the tech space. At all. Sure as hell hasn't hurt LNKD at all.

    3) sure, there's volatility. And I would never recommend it to a client that's a year or two away from retirement. But seeing as how most of the people on this board seem to be in their 20s and 30s, it could be wholly appropriate, all else held equal.

    4) Of course it shouldn't be a large part of anyone's portfolio. Diversification for everyone. Frankly, I'd rather go XLK for exposure to tech, since I'm not a techie at all, and I too like the SPY. Just not when it's at a probably triple top.

  18. #408
    Member insbordnat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    1) won't disagree, but part of the overall picture
    2) Multiples in the 100s for an early-stage company, ok. But how devloped is YELP? How many more subscribers, reviews, etc. to justify a 339x multiple? LNKD is about 100x and their market is growing. They are showing solid cash flows from ops and increasing customer base. YELP is spending as much money as it is making to increase revenues/reviewers, which is meaningless if it can never cash flow.
    3/4) People on this board are probably young and have a long horizon, but also probably don't have huge dollars in their portfolios, either.

    I'll admit, I'm conservative, but stand by my original statement.
    northside groove...southside groove....eastside groove...westside groove

  19. #409
    Member ramblinon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by insbordnat View Post
    1) won't disagree, but part of the overall picture
    2) Multiples in the 100s for an early-stage company, ok. But how devloped is YELP? How many more subscribers, reviews, etc. to justify a 339x multiple? LNKD is about 100x and their market is growing. They are showing solid cash flows from ops and increasing customer base. YELP is spending as much money as it is making to increase revenues/reviewers, which is meaningless if it can never cash flow.
    3/4) People on this board are probably young and have a long horizon, but also probably don't have huge dollars in their portfolios, either.

    I'll admit, I'm conservative, but stand by my original statement.
    FTR, I don't necessarily disagree with you, just playing devil's advocate more than anything. My best guess is that Yelp is viewed as a potential takeover target, and if so the valuation is probably justified. But I too get a bit weirded out about huge multiples. It's bit me in the ass sometimes (AMZN, for instance), but most of my clients are older anyway (I'm a Series 7,66 advisor at one of the TBTF banks) so it's not as appropriate. I just started dipping my toes into FB at $29...I'll take dividend payers instead, especially since I think we're at a near term top in the markets.

  20. #410
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Why didn't you dip your toes in FB when it was $20?

  21. #411
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    I still love the experts that were saying about a year ago that gold "might" get to 3k an oz by the end of the year (2012).
    Have Another Hit Of Colorado Sunshine

  22. #412
    Member ramblinon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayaDelWes View Post
    Why didn't you dip your toes in FB when it was $20?
    Because I left my crystal ball at home, and thus wasn't able to see the various monetization strategies Zuckerberg was going to implement in the future.

    PS - fuck off, wanker.

  23. #413

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    I would be scared to have you be my financial advisor. Facebook is a dog.

  24. #414

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Dropbox ipo.

  25. #415
    Member ramblinon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tubesock Shakur View Post
    I would be scared to have you be my financial advisor. Facebook is a dog.
    Yeah, it's down an entire 1.5% on the basis. Ohhh the humanity. But not to worry, our minimum account size is far too high for the average Coachellan.

    Yeah, and good luck getting in on any tech IPOs. Even talking about it like you'd have a chance of getting shares speaks to your inexperience.

  26. #416

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by ramblinon View Post
    Yeah, it's down an entire 1.5% on the basis. Ohhh the humanity. But not to worry, our minimum account size is far too high for the average Coachellan.

    Yeah, and good luck getting in on any tech IPOs. Even talking about it like you'd have a chance of getting shares speaks to your inexperience.
    Keep telling your clients you are doing them a favor by losing all their money.

    Nowhere did I state that I had a chance.

  27. #417

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Craftsy IPO.

    (I am not stating that anyone will get in on the IPO. It will be a stock that will skyrocket once it goes public. )

  28. #418
    Member ramblinon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tubesock Shakur View Post
    Keep telling your clients you are doing them a favor by losing all their money.
    ZOMG, FACEBOOK IS GOING TO ZERO!!!!!!!! MUST TAKE ADVICE OF INTERNET STRANGERS WITH NO DISCERNIBLE BACKGROUND IN FINANCE!!!!

  29. #419
    Coachella Junkie PlayaDelWes's Avatar
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    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    I dunno, Facebook has really been dragging down my returns


  30. #420

    Default Re: Retire at 50...(AKA The finance thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by ramblinon View Post
    INTERNET STRANGERS WITH NO DISCERNIBLE BACKGROUND IN FINANCE!!!!
    And the guy with a phd in finance is suggesting his clients invest in facebook............


    Lay off the coke.

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