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J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:00 PM
$$$$$$$

Lets do this, favorites? Odds? ect? Drinks? Funny Hats? White people?


Yes I get it, again, its cruelty to animals. If it offends you make another thread.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:07 PM
IIcyFSYhvV4

This is a must.

menikmati
04-28-2010, 02:11 PM
04mvw6tTHrs

RSboR03WnjI

TomAz
04-28-2010, 02:13 PM
I really wish I hadn't watched that.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:13 PM
tl;dw

TomAz
04-28-2010, 02:15 PM
If you go to about 5:30 of the first video you can see the guy get all Anton Chigurh on the horse.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:19 PM
Im sure it happens. I dont need to see it. I like to stay oblivious to the facts of horse racing. I want to believe the horses go to a farm of carrots and and apples as far as the eye can see.

weeklymix
04-28-2010, 02:21 PM
God dammit why did I even watch part of that.

nationocean
04-28-2010, 02:21 PM
i don't get it, what are we talking about?

weeklymix
04-28-2010, 02:23 PM
Kentucky Derby.

nationocean
04-28-2010, 02:24 PM
oh, i just looked it up on google.

shows how much i know about horse racing..

PlayaDelWes
04-28-2010, 02:24 PM
Can we delete this thread and start over again?

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:26 PM
No we can keep going. Its what you make of it. Menik is all about horse racing.

nationocean
04-28-2010, 02:27 PM
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/28/1602458/lookin-at-lucky-favored-for-136th.html

This article reads like ikea instructions to me.

nationocean
04-28-2010, 02:28 PM
oh and I want Ice Box to win, just for that awesome name. haha, Ice Box.

caco0283
04-28-2010, 02:28 PM
that place from your first video is retarded

LVI3UCQd07g&feature=related

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:28 PM
Win.
Place.
Show.

This is all you need to know. Post-time for the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. (et) and will be broadcast on NBC.

weeklymix
04-28-2010, 02:29 PM
I really do hate ESPN's Hank Goldberg. He is just fucking obnoxious.

Off topic for a sec: Erik if you read this please out spinecraft as an alias if he is in fact one. This shit's getting old.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:31 PM
oh and I want Ice Box to win, just for that awesome name. haha, Ice Box.

Go with it. I have come to conclusion there is no right answer when it comes to betting on horses.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:35 PM
Im going to drink like 18 mint juleps and wear a sombrero.

PlayaDelWes
04-28-2010, 02:38 PM
T-minus 3 hours until I raid all grocery stores in Thousand Oaks of their remaining fresh mint leaves. Two years ago I learned the hard-way when I attempted to buy it on Friday. Someone else had already looted it all for their derby party and all I was left with was Bristol Farms. I ended up pay a mint.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/25/pf/goodlife_fortune/mint_julep_story.jpg

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:38 PM
SUGAR!!!!!!!!


Horse Farm
Posted at: 2009-07-14 15:12:55

Original ad:
I am a 18 year old looking for a summer job. it is hard for me to find work and I just want a job so I can afford a car for college next summer. I can clean, babysit, answer phones, pretty much whatever as long as it pays!!

From Mike Anderson to ***********@***********.org
Hey,

I saw your ad looking for work and I think I have a job for you! I am looking for an assistant on my farm for the summer. It will involve working outdoors. Let me know if you are interested.

Mike

From Stephanie ******* to Me
Hi Mike! I am interested in your job! I love animals and used to ride horses so a farm would be great! what kind of work would I be doing, and where is your farm located? it needs to be close to ******** so my parents can drop me off and pick meup

From Mike Anderson to Stephanie *********
Stephanie,

It is very close to **********. I'm glad to hear you are familiar with horses, because you will be primarily working with horses.

My farm gets all the old horses that other farms don't need anymore, and they are starting to take up a lot of room in my stable, which I want to turn into a garage for my new truck. Therefore, the horses need to go. As my assistant, you will be in charge of killing the horses and dumping them in the lake behind my farm.

I used to have a captive bolt pistol (cattle gun) that I used to put them down, but it broke when I tried to use it to tap a keg. You'll probably have to use my 12-gauge shotgun to put them down. Sometimes they don't die right away when you shoot them, and will start freaking out. You just have to stay calm and keep shooting. Don't worry, I'll show you how to use the shotgun if you aren't familiar with one.

You then need to use my chainsaw to cut the horses into smaller parts that you can carry down to the lake. It can get a little messy, so I suggest wearing some clothes that you don't care about, or some clothes that the horse blood would compliment.

The lake isn't mine, it is my neighbor's. He gets kind of angry when he sees me dumping dead horses in his lake, so you have to make sure he isn't around when you do it. I have some cinderblocks you can use to weigh the horses down so he won't see them.

I have a lot of horses, and each horse takes about an hour and a half to dispose of, so you should have plenty of work. The job will pay $15 an hour. When can you start?

Mike

From Stephanie ******* to Me
omg that is HORRIBLE! That is truely awful and sick!! Why cant you just give the poor horses away? sorry but I am not helping you slaughter horses!!!

From Mike Anderson to Stephanie *********
Stephanie,

I'm sorry if you are a bit surprised, but this is how farms work. You can't give away old horses, you have to kill them. I thought about it, and if you don't want to use the chainsaw to cut up the horses, you can just use my truck to drag them down to the lake. Do you have your license or permit? If not, this could be good driving practice for you. You don't want to pass up on this great job opportunity.

Mike

From Stephanie ******* to Me
No that is not how farms work you are just SICK! I am NOT interested

From Mike Anderson to Stephanie *********
Stephanie you are going to regret this some day when you try to get a real job. I think this would look great on your resume.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:39 PM
T-minus 3 hours until I raid all grocery stores in Thousand Oaks of their remaining fresh mint leaves. Two years ago I learned the hard-way when I attempted to buy it on Friday. Someone else had already looted it all for their derby party and all I was left with was Bristol Farms. I ended up pay a mint.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/25/pf/goodlife_fortune/mint_julep_story.jpg

oooooh yeah thanks for reminding me.

djandrews25
04-28-2010, 02:41 PM
That video was extremely disturbing.

nationocean
04-28-2010, 02:44 PM
Now that I looked into, looks pretty fun actually.

Do they have bands play before/after? cuz like, they should.

PlayaDelWes
04-28-2010, 02:44 PM
Im going to drink like 18 mint juleps and wear a sombrero.

Not completely out of question. In '04, three of us ended up with 31 souvenir glasses at the end of a day in the infield. After each drink, we stored the glass in the bag that comes with those portable folding chairs. We got back to the hotel, and all but 6 of them were shattered. Dropped the other 6 in the security line at the airport and ended up having to buy one at the gift shop.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:45 PM
Now that I looked into, looks pretty fun actually.

Do they have bands play before/after? cuz like, they should.

I heard whitesnake used to play the infield at the derby.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:47 PM
That video was extremely disturbing.

Welcome to the real world. I bet your chicken nuggets were delicious today.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:48 PM
Not completely out of question. In '04, three of us ended up with 31 souvenir glasses at the end of a day in the infield. After each drink, we stored the glass in the bag that comes with those portable folding chairs. We got back to the hotel, and all but 6 of them were shattered. Dropped the other 6 in the security line at the airport and ended up having to buy one at the gift shop.

Is the infield that bad at the derby?

PlayaDelWes
04-28-2010, 02:48 PM
Now that I looked into, looks pretty fun actually.

Do they have bands play before/after? cuz like, they should.

Not enough room for bands (or a stage for that matter) with 100,000 people in the in-field.

There are always bands playing at Del Mar, Santa Anita, and Hollywood Park.

In fact, here's Hollywood Park's Friday Night Concert Schedule:

Upcoming Shows
05.07Berlin
05.14Steel Pulse
05.21The Motels
05.21Dramarama
05.28English Beat
06.04Vertical Horizon
06.11Naked Eyes
06.18Starship starring Mickey Thomas
06.25Flock of Seagulls
06.25When In Rome
07.02Fishbone
07.09The Wailers
07.16Super Diamond

nationocean
04-28-2010, 02:51 PM
Oh man, that reads like a 1980's music career graveyard.

lol.

Flock of Seagulls.. that's gotta be a weird show to see in 2010.

nationocean
04-28-2010, 02:52 PM
I do like Fishbone though...

PlayaDelWes
04-28-2010, 02:52 PM
Is the infield that bad at the derby?

Yea. I've been in 02, 04, and 06. All years in the infield. Louisville is such an awesome little city, especially this week. Derby parties in all other years.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 02:58 PM
How do you usually bet Wes?

TomAz
04-28-2010, 03:21 PM
Isn't the phrase 'run for the roses'? not running?

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 03:23 PM
more than one.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 03:23 PM
One horse = no fun.

J~$$$$
04-28-2010, 03:29 PM
whatever.

PlayaDelWes
04-28-2010, 04:20 PM
I love betting on races with lots of horses, so if you win it will pay well. My most common bets are as follows.

1) 3 Horse Quinella Box (2 of those three have to come in first & second)
2) $1 Trifecta with 3 or 4 horses. Sometimes, I'll pin the winner and box 2nd & 3rd
3) Love the 10 cent Superfectas. Sometimes I'll box up to 500 combos, but most of the time I'll cap the bet at $12.00
4) Last year, there were so many long-odds horses in the derby, I just had to put $2 to win on all the ones I didn't have in my exotics. This hedge ended up making my day.

JustSteve
04-28-2010, 04:50 PM
can we bet on the first horse to be turned into glue?

woogie846
04-28-2010, 06:05 PM
Fishbone on 7/2? Tempting.

PlayaDelWes
04-28-2010, 08:58 PM
Any Friday night at Hollywood Park is tempting. $1.00 beers & $1.00 Hot Dogs.

menikmati
04-28-2010, 10:01 PM
That doesn't encourage drunk driving now does it?

fiopadp7791
04-29-2010, 12:39 AM
I'm a horse racing nut... but have never cashed a winning ticket on the Kentucky Derby... have done very well on past undercard races, but the Derby itself? No. I've even talked myself out of picking Smarty Jones and Big brown in recent years..

With the scratch of Eskendrea the other day, this race became very betable.

I have not looked at in-depth past performances this year... I'll delve into that now that the post positions and morning line odds have been released.

The only thing I will tell you, is if you like Lookin at Lucky in the #1 hole, or Sydney's Candy all the way outside in the #20 hole, don't let those post positions make you change your mind if you like the horse enough.

I, like everyone else, thought Big Brown would win the Derby 2 years ago. Then when I found out, with his front-running style, that he'd be all the way outside in the #20 hole, I changed my mind. He'd get marooned wide with other speed horses to the inside of him, and he'd tire out. He did get marooned wide. He raced the whole Derby 5-wide from the rail... and still crushed the field.

So what I'm saying is, don't let a horse's post position make you change your mind if you like the horse enough. I learned that lesson 2 years ago with Big Brown. When there's 20 horses in a field, there's gonna be traffic anyway, so you just gotta hope your horse gets a clean trip no matter where he/she starts from.

fiopadp7791
04-29-2010, 12:58 AM
IIcyFSYhvV4

This is a must.

maybe the best horse race I've ever seen... period. This stretch run still gives me chills... Sorry but the embed was disabled. Just watch the 1st 2 minutes of it and y'all will understand. Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjLZ1lLcfWA&feature=related

fiopadp7791
04-29-2010, 01:00 AM
<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/HoY_U8NTC7E&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/HoY_U8NTC7E&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

A different look at the same race...

fiopadp7791
04-29-2010, 07:59 AM
On another note- How much $$$ will you bet on that single race?

I'm pretty much a minimum bettor. In a normal day, playing simulcast races from all over the country, If I'm down $200 I'm done. On the Kentucky Derby alone, I may spend upwards of $100.

fiopadp7791
04-29-2010, 06:53 PM
Getting a 1st look at this Kentucky Derby field now... this thing could be bombs away (full of longshots in the money). I think the 2 favorites- Lookin at Lucky and Sydney's Candy are both very beatable. But I've never cashed a winning ticket on the Kentucky Derby, so take what I say with a grain of salt. My picks TBA. Off the top of my head though, if Ice Box gets a hot pace to run at he'll be barreling home late.

You can get free past performances for the Derby here-
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/136.html

PlayaDelWes
04-29-2010, 07:04 PM
Thanks for the link. I'm printing now and studying tonight!

fiopadp7791
04-29-2010, 07:05 PM
Thanks for the link. I'm printing now and studying tonight!

It won't matter lol. The lady that likes the name of the horse or her lucky number is 8 will win this thing.

J~$$$$
04-30-2010, 10:59 AM
I love betting on races with lots of horses, so if you win it will pay well. My most common bets are as follows.

1) 3 Horse Quinella Box (2 of those three have to come in first & second)
2) $1 Trifecta with 3 or 4 horses. Sometimes, I'll pin the winner and box 2nd & 3rd
3) Love the 10 cent Superfectas. Sometimes I'll box up to 500 combos, but most of the time I'll cap the bet at $12.00
4) Last year, there were so many long-odds horses in the derby, I just had to put $2 to win on all the ones I didn't have in my exotics. This hedge ended up making my day.

Im following this. The off-tracking betting place is going to be frenzy tomorrow, going to try be there early.

bug on your lip
04-30-2010, 12:30 PM
remember last year when i said a 50-1 horse would win it?

J~$$$$
04-30-2010, 12:55 PM
I remember. What are you predicting this year zoltar?

PlayaDelWes
04-30-2010, 05:34 PM
Stand by for the complete and detailed Playa Handicap of tomorrow's 11th race, The Kentucky Derby. Following shortly thereafter will be the betting strategy that I will follow and recommended for anyone who betting the race and is completely lost on where to begin.

PlayaDelWes
04-30-2010, 07:12 PM
Playa's take on tomorrow's field.

No 50-1 winners this year, sorry folks
The clear favorite is (20)Sidney’s Candy. 3 for 3 in G1 & G2 races in 2010. In all three, Talamo, who is also riding him tomorrow was on him, he showed speed, and drove down the stretch, showing no signs of weakness. I can’t be talked out of this horse. I especially like that positions 17, 18, and 19 show no speed, which should give #20 a clear path towards the rail. I don’t see another horse leading after the second turn.

Other Contenders
At The Wood Memorial, back on April 10th, (13)Jackson Bend and (16)Awesome Act each ran one of the best races of this entire field. Only problem is that they got 2nd and 3rd behind Eskenderya, the former favorite in this year’s Derby. Even though they both finished 9 ĺ lengths back, they each posted some of the speediest times for 1 1/8th mile. In the race before, Jackson Bend finished 2nd, 8 Ĺ lengths back again…to Eskenderya. Both have shown great speed and race pace in all former races at this distance. The Jockey / Trainer combination of Smith / Zito on Jackson Bend add to the attraction. My only issue with Jackson Bend is that he shows no late-race acceleration for that ‘extra charge’ at the end, but he doesn’t exactly pull back either.

(12) Conveyance, rounds out my top contenders with a lifetime record of 4 wins and 1 place out of 5 starts and 2 for 3 in 2010 all at G3 stakes. The consistency of his speed numbers are unparalleled to anyone in the field. + Baffert has plenty of derby experience. No signs of weakness at the end of his five races. “Cleared, Lasted, Ridden out, Driving…” are all signs that he can compete in the 1 ľ mile race.

Closers
Depending on the speed of the race, you might see (8)Dean’s Kitten, or (10)Paddy O’Oprado close in at the end and steal the win (or at least help your exotic). Dean’s Kitten has closed-in in all three of his 1 1/8 mile races in 2010 and has never let up at the end of a race. His trainer has showed in both of his starts at CD this year and posts an overall winning % of 20% in 2010.

(10) Paddy O’Prado has showed in all three of his 2010 starts and shows the same closing threat as Dean’s Kitten. Oh yea, and Desormeaux is onboard, who is 4 (1,1,1) at CD this year and posts an overall winning % in 2010 of 17%. “Held Pace”, “Best Stride Late”, and “Drew Clear” are all signs that he can charge hard for that last furlong better than anyone else.

Wildcards (someone feel free to talk me into or out of any either of these)
(1) Looking at Lucky is the Racing Form favorite at 3-1, but all my analysis posts him as ‘just-OK’. Baffert IS the trainer here as well and the Baffert / Gomez combination is a good one, but Lucky has posted inconsistent speed numbers in all his races. The only time he’s run more than 1 1/16th was the Santa Anita Derby, where he dropped towards the end. I’d be a little afraid of betting the house on him in a long race like the Derby.

(5) Line of David has posted fast times, but only on the Turf. He’s getting better, but his 3 wins this year are all against the lower half of tomorrow’s field (or worse). Great trainer in Sadler (both at CD & in 2010) and great results this year for Bejarano as well. The only real race he’s won was the Arkansas Derby, which was his last race and he pretty much led it wire to wire. Then again, I’m not impressed with the field in the Arkansas Derby.

Just OK
Both (3) Nobel’s Promise and (4) Super Saver can keep up with the big dogs, but that’s about it. They have proven to fade at the end of all their big races. If anything, they will clutter up the front of the pack, making it hard for one of the closers to pounce-in at the end. In any other race, I’d say they have had an impressive 2010, but against this field, I’d call it mediocre.

No
(2) Icebox
(6) Stately Victor
(7) American Lion (Can’t go the distance…slow, only win is against losers)
(9) Make Music For Me (slow, low stakes)
(14) Mission Impazible (successful races in 2010 were at slow times)
(15) Discreetly Mine (successful races in 2010 were at slow times)
(17) Dublin (Can not win big races. Big Speeds, just hangs with big dogs, but no late speed. OK, but not competitive)
(18) Backtalk (Small races, poor times, slow speeds)
(19) Homeboykris (WFT is this doing in the derby?)…just makes it easier for (20) Sidney’s Candy

PlayaDelWes
04-30-2010, 08:16 PM
And the bets:
(I adjusted these because I can't bet a 10 cent superfecta.)

$.10 Superfecta (500 bets = $50) $1 Trifecta / $60
12, 20 w/ 1,8,10,12,13,16,20 w/ 1,3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20 w/ 1,3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20

$1 Trifecta (20 bets = $20)
20 w/ 8,10,12,13,16 w/ 8,10,12,13,16

$1 Exacta Box (12 bets = $12)
12,13,16,20 w/ 12,13,16,20

$.10 Superfecta (180 bets = $18) $1 Trifecta ($36)
13,16 w/ 12,13,16,20 w/ 3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20 w/ 3,4,8,10,12,13,16,20

That's ~$100

I'm also thinking about doing some sort of hedge on #5 in case he comes in and screws all this up at 30-1. Like $5 to win and place or something. $5 w/p on 5 it is.

buddy
05-01-2010, 12:36 AM
i went icebox to win. nothing big, just thought it be fun to take the odds.

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2010, 07:17 AM
Uh, Oh. No $.10 superfecta at Churchill Downs. Only $1. Need to adjust slightly.

gaypalmsprings
05-01-2010, 07:21 AM
http://www.jcsdesignz.com/import/graphics/Gay/forget-the-horse-ride-a-cowboy.jpg

J~$$$$
05-01-2010, 07:23 AM
Uh, Oh. No $.10 superfecta at Churchill Downs. Only $1. Need to adjust slightly.

Where are you seeing this?

J~$$$$
05-01-2010, 07:25 AM
found it.

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/post-times-wager-menu

bug on your lip
05-01-2010, 07:42 AM
playa has Lookin at Lucky as only a Wildcard ???

WTF you Montards !!

hopefully i'm in time to save you all

bug on your lip
05-01-2010, 07:45 AM
There are only 2 horses who are:


Ready to Peak
Trained Well
Looked Awesome
Bred For Mud


1. Lookin At Lucky
14. Mission Impazible


they are morning line 9-1 & 24-1
holy fukk
this might be my easiest Derby ever

bug on your lip
05-01-2010, 07:48 AM
for my exotics i will sprinkle.

3. Noble's Promise [if you like Lucky you have to also like this horse to hit the board]
12. Conveyance [should have an nice trip out front & is ready to peak]
16. Awesome Act [should be hanging out with Impazible in the 3rd bunching of horses. Will shadow Impazible when he makes a move to the rail on the final turn]

J~$$$$
05-01-2010, 07:51 AM
No way Stately Victor comes out as exotic?

gaypalmsprings
05-01-2010, 08:16 AM
http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w302/gaypalmsprings/drag.jpg

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2010, 10:26 AM
Where are you seeing this?

TVG

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2010, 10:27 AM
Bug, I have never been more confident in a Derby winner than I am today with Sidney's Candy.

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2010, 10:32 AM
In for a total of $120. See my bets on previous page.

J~$$$$
05-01-2010, 02:45 PM
Lost $18

suprefan
05-01-2010, 02:47 PM
SUPRE SAVER!


I think you guys forget who was riding that horse.

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2010, 02:48 PM
Blame it on the rain.

J~$$$$
05-01-2010, 02:50 PM
SUPRE SAVER!


I think you guys forget who was riding that horse.

Thanks for chiming in after the race.

suprefan
05-01-2010, 03:53 PM
Like it matters? I read what you guys were saying before. I saw Borrell was riding Super Saver, and I was like ''ummm dont count this guy out''

JustSteve
05-01-2010, 04:35 PM
mmhmm.

fiopadp7791
05-01-2010, 05:21 PM
I played Ice Box with some other closers... I really thought there would be more speed, and the speed would die and the closers would come charging home. In the mud, it more favors front-runners, because horses, like people, get discouraged and pissed when mud gets kicked in their face lol.

The only horse that closed was Ice Box, and he came from so far back, that I wonder if he was in last going into the stretch. Otherwise most of the front-end speed held.

As for Sydneys Candy- No excuse. He got a good trip for being marooned outside in the 20-hole, but he was gassed at the top of the stretch.

Congrats to Pletcher, Super Saver, and BO-RAIL. I can't bet against this guy in the Derby anymore.

fatbastard
05-02-2010, 05:43 AM
Dick Francis is dead.

fiopadp7791
05-02-2010, 07:38 AM
I'm one that usually doesn't let a jockey factor into the wagering of a big race like the Derby. I mean, I wanna bet the horse based on it's merits leading up to a race, not the jockey riding it.

But shit. Calvin Borel is winning on 20% of his mounts this year. That number is very good. At Churchill Downs specifically- HE IS WINNING 48%! The dude can't lose at that track... Hindsight... always 20/20... especially in horse racing.

bug on your lip
05-15-2010, 11:15 AM
still not alot of speed anywhere in this race.. but there isn't going to be a Sydney's Candy pushing suicide fractions this time.. so it doesn't favor the closers like it did in the Derby..

i see (2) Schoolyard Dreams and (8) Super Saver battling in the stretch..
and (7) Lookin At Lucky and (12) Dublin will be flying at them hard...

i think Lukas has a trick up his sleeve..
i'm going Dublin for the win
(12)-(8)-(2)-(7)

PlayaDelWes
05-16-2010, 08:41 AM
I didn't have time to bet the Preakness, but I did get a good hour in of betting leading up to it.

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4022/4612331158_8230b673f5_o.jpg

fiopadp7791
05-02-2011, 07:37 AM
It's that time O' year again... And this year it looks wide open again. With Uncle Moe losing the Wood Memorial, this race is another toss-up. So yeah, if you've gotten over the Bin Laden talk already, it's pony time :)

fiopadp7791
05-02-2011, 07:38 AM
Horse-by-horse analysis here. Post position draw on Wednesday.
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-contenders-derby-watch-top-20-horses

J~$$$$
05-02-2011, 07:43 AM
Ive got my $20 ready.

fiopadp7791
05-02-2011, 10:27 PM
only $20? Add a zero?

fiopadp7791
05-02-2011, 10:42 PM
I didn't have time to bet the Preakness, but I did get a good hour in of betting leading up to it.

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4022/4612331158_8230b673f5_o.jpg

What wagers will you make that will assist in adding to your Lego collection? :)

TomAz
05-03-2011, 03:43 AM
Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands

J~$$$$
05-03-2011, 06:02 AM
Its all about running faster. To the bathroom, runs, the horse to remind them just in case they lose..ect.

fiopadp7791
05-03-2011, 10:06 AM
Toby's Corner- the horse that beat uncle moe in the wood scratched. Unspecified leg injury

fiopadp7791
05-05-2011, 07:46 AM
Post Positions, Morning Line odds, and Past Performances are up at http://www.drf.com

Free Past Performances here-
http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2011/profile-assets/PPs/2011-kentucky-derby-pps.pdf

fiopadp7791
05-06-2011, 05:34 AM
Uncle Mo scratched today. Was the potential betting favorite, so that's big news

fiopadp7791
05-06-2011, 05:26 PM
My picks/bets are in... and I already got some of my $$$$ back. I made a $10 WPS bet on the 13-horse today in the Kentucky Oaks. She lost by a neck at 16-1. If I win, my Derby was more than paid for. But I got over $100 back, so a decent start.

I made $270 in Derby bets today... that's usually my budget for a whole day at the track, but this race makes me do crazy things (And I'm not playing other races this weekend).

I'm not looking at that goddamn Daily Racing Form again. Because I change my mind everytime. Looking at my bets is the reason why I haven't had success in the Derby:
I'm betting against the favorite (Dialed In), and YES, I'M BETTING AGAINST CALVIN BOREL. That right there is a recipe for disaster.

This race, especially after the scratch of Uncle Mo, is sooooo wide open. I thought the 20 (Watch Me Go) was the only horse I couldn't make a case for winning it. So the 18 others I thought all had a fighting chance.

I did $1 tri and exacta boxes with the same 6 horses ($120 for the Tri, $30 for the exacta):
1- ArchArchArch
6- Comma to the Top
10- Twinspired
11- Master of Hounds
15- Midnight Interlude
19- Nehro

I also put $100 to win and $20 place on Twinspired. Watching the replay of the Bluegrass, I really liked the race he ran. He lost by a nose, while running close up to a fast pace the whole race. The horse ran on dirt once and got killed. But he's had a couple of solid workouts leading up to tomorrow on the dirt, and if Mike Smith has him sitting just off the lead coming home, he'll have 1st run at all the speed balls in the race. We'll see. He'll be a big long-shot, but we'll see.

I will say that Calvin Borel's horse (Twice the Apeeal) was the last horse that didn't make the cut. His horse has merit. He's steadily improved since making the switch from running on the poly from running on dirt, and Borel is Borel. So I know I'm playing with fire leaving his horse out, and will probably be the horse that fucks everything up for me this weekend.

So that's $270 in Derby bets + the $30 I bet today on the Oaks. Got just over $100 in return on my Oaks payoff, so if I lose on the Derby I'm only losing $200 for the weekend instead of $300.

Good luck with your wagers tomorrow guys. And I'm interested to see your predictions too. It's so wide open, you may completely disagree with me. And with my horrible track record in this race, I hope I'm not cursing your picks if we agree lol. POST YOUR PICKS.

PlayaDelWes
05-06-2011, 08:59 PM
Now that Bin Laden and the Lakers are out of the picture, I’ve had a chance to study tomorrow’s field. Here are my thoughts.

1. Great in the mud, a closer, and has gotten better each race
2. Great closer, improved each race. Like Rosario, but no confidence in trainer or prior speed #’s
3. Never had the speed, but shows improvement race-to-race and within each race (may consider in late exotics)
4. No
5. No
6. No - Can’t win at this distance, also don’t like CA horses running in KY
7. WTF is that last G2 race with a speed number of 94m eating Nehro and MuchoMchoMn? Wouldn’t consider without that race, but with it, WTF?
8. Dialed-in – YES!
9. No
10. Twinspired – No (can’t win, even with great speed numbers & a good jockey). Mike Smith is crafty, so we’ll see what happens with the jockey change, but I’m not including him in anything
11. Nothing says ‘yes’ to me. All notable races are international and not comparable to rest of field.
12. Santiva – can’t beat this field
13. Much Macho Man – My biggest wild-card in this race. Love the Kathy Ritvo story, like the speed, like the consistency in G2 & G3 races. I’m including in everything
14. Shackleford – I’m ignoring the Feb 26th race and including him in everything. The G1 Florida derby is a win in my book and the prior two were clear wins driving away.
15. Midnight Interlude – YES. Four awesome races and only getting better. Closes / driving in each race.
16. Animal Kingdom – My best longshot. Beat others in this field other huge races. At 30-1, I’m hedging my exotics with this one.
17. Soldat – WINNER. This is my Derby Favorite. Ignoring the race on Apr 3, where he faltered at the rail, the prior 7 races have been phenomenal. In each of those he drove out to finish each race; all at long distances none-the-less.
18. Scratched
19. Nehro – Have to include in all exotics. Beat by Archarcharch and Pants on Fire in last two, but only lost by a combined 2 necks.
20. No

PlayaDelWes
05-06-2011, 09:06 PM
$1 Trifecta ($20)
17 (Soldat) with / 8, 13, 14, 15, 19

$1 Superfecta ($150)
17 / 1,8,13,15,17,19 / 1,3,8,13-15,17,19 / 1,3,8,13-15,17,19

Longshot Hedge ($30)
$5 WPS on 16 (Animal Kingdom), 2 (Brilliant Speed)


p.s. Good luck on Twinspired

fiopadp7791
05-07-2011, 09:48 AM
When looking at the race, I thought only the #20 horse had ZERO chance of winning. So there's plenty of ways to look at this. Good luck to you as well.

Premium Roast
05-07-2011, 11:25 AM
Stopping by Los Al in a few for these (I sold them their TVs in the Vessel Club and other areas btw):

#15, #3 exacta box
#15 Win
#3 Win

malcolmjamalawesome
05-07-2011, 11:37 AM
My money is on
http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/7513/screenshot20110501at455.png

faxman75
05-07-2011, 11:59 AM
#4 Stay Thirsty FTW.

Now we'll see if I can make it to a place to make a bet in time. I don't even know where I would so that in Phoenix.

Mr. Dylanja
05-07-2011, 12:03 PM
I'm not sure where you're at exactly, but the H&H has OTB in Tempe.

faxman75
05-07-2011, 12:04 PM
I'm at 44th st. and baseline. You've been here ;) I'm showing that Gallagher's takes OTB and Derby bets. I've been there for football a bunch and I never noticed a place to bet there. I'll be stopping there in a few since it's only a mile from me. yep, just called and verified.

I'm betting based on position and a great desert name.

Bonovan
05-07-2011, 01:01 PM
#1 - Midnight Interlude
#2 - Mucho Macho Man
#3 - Pants on Fire (Rooting for Rosie!)

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b271/thinkbolt/1q1g1l.gif

Premium Roast
05-07-2011, 01:45 PM
friend texted me from Vegas saying they put a grand straight up on Dialed In. I guess it's "go hard or go home". Forty minutes away...

PlayaDelWes
05-07-2011, 01:53 PM
SOLDAT

faxman75
05-07-2011, 02:01 PM
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/ is streaming the Derby live.

My bet is $20 on the #4 Stay Thirsty to place.

Premium Roast
05-07-2011, 02:04 PM
SOLDAT

Dad bet that horse

and used to watch some football games and other non-televised events here: http://www.channelsurfing.net/ . Guess that shit got shut down...with authority.

PlayaDelWes
05-07-2011, 02:07 PM
So, how did pants on fire get bet don from 20-1 to 7-1?

Why, I mean

faxman75
05-07-2011, 02:08 PM
Shouldn't my ticket show the odds? How do I know what I win if my horse finishes first or second?

PlayaDelWes
05-07-2011, 02:10 PM
Wot know until it's over. Odds change based on total amount bet relative the total pool for that bet.

faxman75
05-07-2011, 02:12 PM
Interesting, so nothing like sports where you get the odds at the time of your bet even if they change.

PlayaDelWes
05-07-2011, 02:20 PM
Oh weep no more my lady

J~$$$$
05-07-2011, 02:29 PM
8-3-17

Bonovan
05-07-2011, 02:35 PM
ANIMAL KINGDOM!!!

faxman75
05-07-2011, 02:35 PM
fail

Congrats to Animal Kingdom

J~$$$$
05-07-2011, 02:35 PM
Way to go WES!

Grandma
05-07-2011, 02:36 PM
piece of shit horse, fuck you

Grandma
05-07-2011, 02:37 PM
before i die i want to beat a jockeys ass

Bonovan
05-07-2011, 02:38 PM
friend texted me from Vegas saying they put a grand straight up on Dialed In. I guess it's "go hard or go home". Forty minutes away...

Sorry for your friend.....

PlayaDelWes
05-07-2011, 02:47 PM
Got most of it back.

Bet $200, got $191 back.

weeklymix
05-07-2011, 02:48 PM
So did Wes come out in the black for betting once on Animal Kingdom?

Edit:
Never mind. Ha.

Premium Roast
05-07-2011, 03:32 PM
Sorry for your friend.....

I'm not. He was making all these comments like "it's only money" and "I've always had to guide you" after telling me the guaranteed pick of the day. Think he was just upset that I didnt attend there after getting an invite a few months ago.

Well, going to eat something.

fiopadp7791
05-07-2011, 04:03 PM
Congrats Wes...

Believe it or not, I'm happy that I was sooo far off if I wasn't gonna win. The only horse that came close for me was Nehro. Otherwise I was better at predicting who would finish last me thinks :) But it would be heart-breaking if say I got 2nd and 3rd, but not the winner.

My co-worker had Animal Kingdom too. He kept telling me that was the horse that was gonna f me up today if someone did... he was kinda right. Just year to year I'm f'd in this race and won't ever win anyway lol.

fiopadp7791
05-07-2011, 06:45 PM
These payoffs seem light for the amount of $$$ bet, the odds spread across so many horses, and the fact that a longshot won the race. Exacta and tri payoffs I thought could have been a lot better than this... hmmmm

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/quick/CD050711USA11-EQB.html


QUICK RESULTS



11th race - Churchill Downs - May 07, 2011

Video Race Replay
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
16 Animal Kingdom 43.80 19.60 13.00
19 Nehro 8.80 6.40
13 Mucho Macho Man 7.00

$2 Daily Double 7-16 393.00
$2 Daily Double OAKS-DERBY 12-16 345.60
$2 Exacta 16-19 329.80
$2 Future Wager EXACTA POOL 1 24-24 230.00
$2 Future Wager EXACTA POOL 2 24-24 338.20
$2 Future Wager EXACTA POOL 3 1-12 3,074.60
$2 Future Wager POOL 1-24 6.20
$2 Future Wager POOL 2-24 9.40
$2 Future Wager POOL 3-1 64.40
$2 Superfecta 16-19-13-14 48,126.00
$1 Super High Five 16-19-13-14-11 0.00
$2 Trifecta 16-19-13 3,952.40
$2 Pick 3 1-7-16 (3 correct) 4,738.20
$0.50 Pick 3 OAKS/WDFRD/DERBY 12-7-16 (3 correct) 974.70
$2 Pick 4 8-1-7-16 (4 correct) 24,584.40
$0.50 Pick 5 1-8-1-7-16 (5 correct) 213,895.35
$2 Pick 6 2-1-8-1-7-16 (5 correct) 12,251.80

PlayaDelWes
05-21-2011, 02:26 PM
Half a length away from winning EVERYTHING (Exacta, Tri, and Super) today. Animal Kingdom started his bid a little late. Nice wire-to-wire win Shackleford.

weeklymix
05-21-2011, 02:34 PM
My favorite part about the coverage was Shackleford was doing some donuts pre-race and slow getting into the gate and the announcers were just dogging on them because of it.

"Oh doesn't look good for ol' Shackleford there."
"Spending too much energy before the race. Does not look good."
"Not a good sign for team Shackelford."

Led nearly the whole length and won. Hilarious. Amazing final stretch yet again by both Dialed In and Animal Kingdom.

PlayaDelWes
04-29-2012, 09:11 PM
Soon....

fiopadp7791
04-29-2012, 09:40 PM
Soon....

Me and you need to talk shop. This year is as wide-open as ever, but in the sense that it's very top-heavy (but top-heavy in the sense where 6-7 horses look head and shoulders about the rest).

Guys, I haven't decided if I'm making a separate thread for it or not, but after the post-position draw on Wednesday, "Diamond Pete's top-notch Derby picks" thread may be created... especially since I'm eternally cursed to never win any money on the race. So whoever I pick (and I think i got a pretty good idea... well... kinda), go the opposite!

fiopadp7791
04-29-2012, 09:52 PM
by the way, there are preliminary past performances sheets you can view/printout via both daily racing form and brisnet. But as I said, post position draw isn't until Wednesday, and some trainers haven't committed to a jockey for their horse yet. Alpha will probably have Belmont/Saratoga/Gulfstream regular rider Rajiv Maragh, but they haven't committed to him yet just in case they can get Ramon Dominguez (probably the hottest and arguably most talented rider in the country) if Hansen is a last-minute scratch.

DRF- http://static.drf.com/PDFs/derby-media/Derby.pdf
Brisnet- This info until Wednesday is a little more complete, but I've always been more comfortable with DRF formatted past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf

PlayaDelWes
04-29-2012, 10:01 PM
Thanks. I know what I'll be doing at work tomorrow now. I hardly decide based on post position.

A new year-independent thread is fine with me.

Meanwhile, I made the mix for bourbon balls tonight.
http://i1208.photobucket.com/albums/cc367/playadelwes/41b9a4b1.jpg

And we have a record 43 confirmed for Saturday's party.

fiopadp7791
04-29-2012, 10:15 PM
Ha I need to party with you on Derby Day. You do it right!

I got a table at Canterbury Park (the horse track in suburban Minneapolis). But it's not where I usually sit, so I think I may handicap the undercard, make some bets for the whole card at Churchill and go home. I think Versus (or NBC Sports Network) will be showing most of the Churchill races all Saturday afternoon and Friday too for the Kentucky Oaks.

fiopadp7791
04-29-2012, 11:12 PM
by the way, there are preliminary past performances sheets you can view/printout via both daily racing form and brisnet. But as I said, post position draw isn't until Wednesday, and some trainers haven't committed to a jockey for their horse yet. Alpha will probably have Belmont/Saratoga/Gulfstream regular rider Rajiv Maragh, but they haven't committed to him yet just in case they can get Ramon Dominguez (probably the hottest and arguably most talented rider in the country) if Hansen is a last-minute scratch.

DRF- http://static.drf.com/PDFs/derby-media/Derby.pdf
Brisnet- This info until Wednesday is a little more complete, but I've always been more comfortable with DRF formatted past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf

Since they past performances are preliminary (and a couple weeks old), it should be noted that a few horses listed in them are either not running or are outside of the Top 20 in the graded earnings list to make the field. Right now Optimizer is the 1st "also eligible", which means he's currently horse 21. If a horse scratches or withdraws in the coming days, Optimizer will be the first alternate in.

Secret Circle and Reveron have leg injuries and won't be running again until later this summer. Isn't He Clever has been transferred to trainer Steve Asmussen (his listed trainer is Henry Dominguez), who has come out and said that even if they're eligible to run they're skipping the Kentucky Derby.

So Optimizer is 1st alternate.
Secret Circle, Reveron, and Isn't He Clever won't be running in the Derby. According to the graded earnings list- this is the Kentucky Derby field as of now:
http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-derby-contenders-ranked-graded-stakes-earnings

fiopadp7791
04-30-2012, 08:39 AM
The NBC Sports Group will present 14Ĺ hours of Kentucky Derby coverage beginning on Wednesday, May 2 at 4 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network and culminating with the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby on NBC, Saturday, May 5 beginning at 4 p.m. ET.

The expanded Kentucky Derby coverage, which includes 8.5 hours on Derby Day on NBC and NBC Sports Network, will include:

COMENTATORS: The NBC Sports Group coverage of the Kentucky Derby will feature co-hosts Bob Costas, a 22-time Emmy Award-winner, and veteran NBC Sports commentator Tom Hammond; three-time Kentucky Derby winner Gary Stevens; contributing analysts/handicappers Mike Battaglia and Bob Neumeier; analyst Randy Moss; host Laffit Pincay, III; reporters Kenny Rice, Donna Brothers and Jay Privman; race caller Larry Collmus.

Additionally, Hall-of Fame jockey and two-time Kentucky Derby-winner Jerry Bailey will join NBC Sports Network’s commentary team on Derby Day. Bailey, who also won twice in the Preakness and twice in the Belmont, won the Kentucky Derby in 1993 (Sea Hero) and 1996 (Grindstone).

NBC SPORTS GROUP "LIVE" DERBY COVERAGE (All Times ET):

Wed. May 2 5 p.m. - 6 p.m. Kentucky Derby Draw NBCSN
Thur. May 3 5 p.m. - 6 p.m. Live From Churchill Downs NBCSN
Fri. May 4 5 p.m. - 6 p.m. Kentucky Oaks 138 NBCSN
SATURDAY, MAY 5:
11 a.m. - 4 p.m. Live From Churchill Downs (Races 2-9) NBCSN
4 p.m. - 7 p.m. Kentucky Derby 138 (includes Turf Classic) NBC / nbcsports.com
7 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. Kentucky Derby Post-Race Show NBCSN

Your Derby Overkill coverage... if you wanna play the whole Churchill Downs card on Saturday, or play the Kentucky Oaks on Friday (looks like a great betting race)

HAIRYGOOMBA
04-30-2012, 09:00 AM
Mangled Horses, Maimed Jockeys - The New York Times
www.nytimes.com/.../death-and-disarray-at-americas-racetracks.html...

fiopadp7791
04-30-2012, 10:07 AM
I read that article. There are some truths in there, but also some sensationalized PETA bullshit. New Mexico is fucked up though with a lack of regulation.

It would be nice if drugs were completely phased out like they are in other countries where major racing takes place, but this article frankly is irresponsible in a lot of ways.

TomAz
04-30-2012, 10:13 AM
Mangled Horses, Maimed Jockeys - The New York Times
www.nytimes.com/.../death-and-disarray-at-americas-racetracks.html...

Yes this is the thread where I get to annually trot out (trot? get it?) my strong dislike for the 'sport' of horseracing.

Tubesock Shakur
04-30-2012, 11:27 AM
Ive got my hat and seersucker pressed and ready to go.

HAIRYGOOMBA
04-30-2012, 01:31 PM
The New York Times' article is not sensationalized. It is factual and well researched and documented.

New Mexico is not unique. It is all the same. No matter how splendid or "idolized"
the animal is when they're winning, they all end up in the same horrible place.
The pretentious trappings can't conceal the inherent suffering involved.

Very few are spared or rescued. Thoroughbreds who come off the track are "hot" and difficult to find
homes for as they need very competent riders. There are qualities that are bred into them to run faster that make them
physically fragile and unsuitable as family pets or trail horses.
The shameless, greedy and ignorant cycle of breeding and discarding appears to be continuing unabated, with no public challenge or outcry.

I am hoping that the inhumanity of all this dickhead crap is seen for what it is and it will soon become obsolete.

Tubesock Shakur
04-30-2012, 01:49 PM
You would think that you would be more upset with oil contractors killing wild horses.

HAIRYGOOMBA
04-30-2012, 02:00 PM
Who says I'm not?

fiopadp7791
05-01-2012, 09:18 AM
Mark Valeski withdrawn from the race. Optimizer is in. My Adonis is the next alternate to make the field if there's another scratch or horse withdrawn. Post position draw tomorrow

lehorne
05-01-2012, 01:04 PM
kinda finnin the local horse Dullahan ridden by Kent Desormeaux, a southern boy who's made me some money in the past. Not to mention has won the Derby three times (most recently with Big Brown). The horse likes the distance and is a late charger with strong closing speed.

fiopadp7791
05-01-2012, 08:27 PM
That's a good take on Dullahan, but I'm tryin to beat him. His dirt form is suspect. The best he's finished on dirt is 4th. But he's in great form, and the trainer/jockey combo is very respectable. Also, I'm cursed in this race, so since I'm trying to beat him, he'll probably win lol. I'm thinking you'll get around 8-1 or better on him

fiopadp7791
05-03-2012, 08:28 PM
Updated past performances from brisnet with post positions/jockeys listed.
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505y

PlayaDelWes
05-04-2012, 01:37 PM
Playa's list of non-contenders

Daddy Long Legs
Optimizer
Rousing Sermon
Trinniberg
Alpha
Prospective
Went the Day Well
Done Talking
Sabercat
Liaison
My Adonis

fiopadp7791
05-05-2012, 12:24 AM
Playa's list of non-contenders

Daddy Long Legs
Optimizer
Rousing Sermon
Trinniberg
Alpha
Prospective
Went the Day Well
Done Talking
Sabercat
Liaison
My Adonis


I agree with that list except for Alpha... If you're playing Gemologist, I think you have to play Alpha with him because they finished so close together in their last race.

I think Prospective can finish 3rd and fuck up a lot of people's trifectas and supefectas.

Daddy Long Legs scares the crap outta me. He's the biggest "unknown" in the race. That last race in Dubai he was dominant. But the one time he ran on dirt, which was at Churchill, he was a non-factor. So which horse shows up?

fiopadp7791
05-05-2012, 12:30 AM
This race is wide open. It's tough.

I think Bodemeister is the real deal. But history is against him. He got a great post position, and if he gets a clean start, he might never look back.

But I'm taking Creative Cause. He'll be stalking the front-runners, and if positioned right, he'll be dangerous coming home. He's been so consistent. He's my play.

But I could be going 7 horses deep in an exacta box.

PlayaDelWes
05-05-2012, 08:08 AM
My Picks:

Tier 1: (one of these two will win)
#6 Bodemeister
#19 I'll have Another

Tier 2:
#5 Dullahan
#8 Creative Cause

Tier 3:
#16 El Padrino

Tier 4:
#3 Take Charge Indy
#4 Union Rags



Total budget for the day: $200

AMOUNT: $1 Type: TRIFECTA Horses: BX,5,6,8,16,19
Total Cost: $60

Amount: $1 Type: SUPERFECTA Horses: 6,19 / 5,6,8,16,19 / 3-6,8,16,19 / 3-5,8,16
Total Cost: $136

Amount: $1 Type: EXACTA Horses: 16 / 6,19
Amount: $1 Type: EXACTA Horses: 6,19 / 16
Total Cost: $4

lehorne
05-05-2012, 11:23 AM
stopped by Los Al this morning (saw Mike Monji the manager in the parking lot and he let me in saving $3...WooHoo) and laid $20 on Dullahan and $20 on Creative Cause for mi Padre. Just makes the race more exciting when you have a vested interest, even if it's a nominal amount. Good luck, fellers.

Tubesock Shakur
05-05-2012, 01:43 PM
AMOUNT: $1 Type: TRIFECTA Horses: BX,6,8,15,19
Total:$24


Exacta $1 15/8
Exacta $1 6/16
Exacta $1 16/8
Exacta $1 5/6
Exacta $1 8/15

Total $10

Wasn't feelin it this year.

Tubesock Shakur
05-05-2012, 01:44 PM
Plus there were so many fucking losers at the track. I hate betting on horses for that reason alone.

Tubesock Shakur
05-05-2012, 02:36 PM
Way to go Wes.

PlayaDelWes
05-05-2012, 02:58 PM
1500 bitches

PlayaDelWes
05-05-2012, 02:59 PM
fuck you 13

fiopadp7791
05-05-2012, 04:14 PM
Nice Wes... I hit the exacta for $750 (Had it for $5 so 2.5x the $2 payoff). The problem? The $100 I put on the #8 Creative Cause. Mid-stretch, I seriously thought I had the Tri. CC was 3rd mid-stretch, but he was clearly tired and got passed. Was a nice hit, because otherwise I got my ass kicked today. Profit margin was maybe $300...

IceyHotshot
05-05-2012, 04:37 PM
My brother was in attendance so I had him put $20 on I'll Have Another. Just picked it randomly, didn't actually expect to win anything.

fiopadp7791
05-05-2012, 04:40 PM
http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/3519/img353h.jpg
Shot at 2012-05-05

If it weren't for putting $100 on Creative Cause... but goddamn mid-stretch all three horses were 1-2-3. But Creative Cause just had no gas left. What coulda been if he held on for 3rd...

fiopadp7791
05-19-2012, 10:31 AM
not that any of y'all care, but here's my Preakness wager-
$1tri box I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Cozzetti (6-7-9-11 $24)

$10WP Creative Cause.

I'm cheering for I'll Have Another, but I think Bodemeister wins today. Creative Cause has run competitively against these 2 and had a hard trying 5th in the Derby, so I'm putting some Win/Place $ just in case he comes with a big effort today (hoping for 6-1)

PlayaDelWes
05-19-2012, 12:59 PM
I believe Bodemiester and I'll have another will be top two again. I also remember Went the day well with plenty left at the Derby finishing strong and ruining my superfecta.

PlayaDelWes
05-19-2012, 01:13 PM
Ok, I bet those three in a $1 tri box and a $4 exacta box.

PlayaDelWes
05-19-2012, 02:37 PM
I believe Bodemiester and I'll have another will be top two again.
...

not that any of y'all care, but here's my Preakness wager-
$1tri box I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Cozzetti (6-7-9-11 $24)

$10WP Creative Cause.

I'm cheering for I'll Have Another, but I think Bodemeister wins today. Creative Cause has run competitively against these 2 and had a hard trying 5th in the Derby, so I'm putting some Win/Place $ just in case he comes with a big effort today (hoping for 6-1)
Way to go. Gotta love netting a loss after hitting the trifecta.

fiopadp7791
05-19-2012, 04:38 PM
yeah I made fun of myself for hitting the smallest trifecta in the history of horse racing lol. I was happy I only lost $9 on it lol. I hit the exacta on the turf race before it, so it kinda righted my day. Lost a little, but wasn't a total bloodbath

But I'm reaaaaaly salty. That exacta payoff was HUGE! HUUUUUUGGGGE!

That exacta for $2 should've seriously paid between $6-8 no joke. Maybe $10. $18.40. You will never get easier $$$$ than you got on that exacta payoff today. Unbelievable how much it paid. I put in my bets and went home, and I didn't even explore the thought of playing an exacta because of what should've been a much smaller payoff. If I woulda known, I would've played that exacta for $100. Stealing $ Stealin!

But I'm really excited for I'll Have Another. I doubt Bodemeister goes to the Belmont. I think they'll rest him probably until the Haskell at Monmouth in late July (or maybe early August).

So I think I'll Have Another has a real shot to actually win the Triple Crown.

He'll go again Dullahan and Union Rags for sure. But who else?

Mark Valeski? Hansen?

Impressive win today. I'm cheering for him to actually pull off the Triple Crown. But if he does it, it will do no good for the popularity of the sport if he gets retired right after... which will unfortunately probably will happen.

JustSteve
05-19-2012, 06:47 PM
i don't know why i have such a disdain for bob baffert, but seeing him lose the last 2 races has been very nice.

PlayaDelWes
06-08-2012, 08:34 AM
I'll Have Another Won't Run in Belmont Stakes, Erases Hopes of First Triple Crown Since 1978 (http://www.nesn.com/2012/06/ill-have-another-wont-run-in-belmont-stakes-erases-hopes-of-first-triple-crown-since-1978.html)

tendinitis

fiopadp7791
06-08-2012, 10:00 AM
I'll Have Another Won't Run in Belmont Stakes, Erases Hopes of First Triple Crown Since 1978 (http://www.nesn.com/2012/06/ill-have-another-wont-run-in-belmont-stakes-erases-hopes-of-first-triple-crown-since-1978.html)

tendinitis

Tendonitis combo'd horse in detention barn under much more stringent drug testing? I hope that's not the case, but with the accusations against O'Neill, this could be an issue. He's officially been retired, so Sheik Mohammed bin Rasheed al Maktoum (Ruler of Dubai) probably paid owner Paul Reddam about $50million for a stud agreement. Any small little injury and no chance is taken... but this is a horrible blow to the sport which could really use a shot in the arm. Fuck... as a fan of the sport this day sucks a fat one.

stinkbutt
06-08-2012, 10:37 AM
What a bummer

Miroir Noir
06-08-2012, 11:42 AM
It's all the same oatbag, people.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ZpZhDUyQGAA

fiopadp7791
04-23-2013, 08:25 PM
Hi guys... we're less than 2 weeks away from the Derby- Saturday 5/4. If it's just a fun, casual day where you drink Mint Juleps, and pick the horse with a funny name or your favorite number, ok. But I figure I'll give you the scoop on some of the big contenders this year. Mainly because I have nothing better to do lol.

So just the basics- There will be 20 horses in the race, which can make it a complete crap-shoot. It's always for 3 year-olds only. It's at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. The race distance is a mile and a quarter, and the longest any of the entrants have run up to this point in their young careers is 1 3/16 miles. So not only are you dealing with a 20-horse traffic jam, but you're also unsure if they can handle running that far. A lot can't.

The 20-horse field is determined by designated Derby Prep races held in the months before the Derby. But most horses qualify for the race in March and early April. So 2 other big "unknowns" going into these races- Is a lot of these horses haven't run against each other. The Derby prep races happen everywhere from Florida to New York to Louisiana to California to Dubai.... yes... Dubai. Further making things confusing is there are 2 different surfaces that these Derby Prep races occur on. Some tracks are comprised of a traditional dirt track. Churchill Downs is a dirt track. Others are a synthetic dirt surface which has been installed at a lot of places due to supposedly being safer for horses to run on (there are statistics that seem to back up that this surface is more safe). But the surface acts/feels much different to horses than traditional dirt does, and so you don't know how a horse will run on traditional dirt if he's only been running on synthetic. It's not always a deal-breaker though. Some horses take to it just fine. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby 2 years ago after only running on synthetic surfaces before that, and many other horses have placed well in the Derby who have never run on dirt going into Derby Day.

My next post will break down some of the main Derby favorites along with some Youtube clips if you have the patience to watch them.

fiopadp7791
04-23-2013, 08:44 PM
http://youtu.be/gDn5cdnMpzs
The Wood Memorial
Date of Race- Saturday 4/6/13
Location- Aqueduct (NYC)
Surface- Dirt
Distance- 1 1/8 Miles

Derby entrants in this clip-
#5 Normandy Invasion
#14 Verrazano
#20 Vyjack

#14 Verrazano
The likely co-favorite (with Orb, who I'll mention later in the Florida Derby post) for the Kentucky Derby will be undefeated Verrazano. He's well-bred, with top-trainer Todd Pletcher (who has 5 or 6 horses in the field this year... just absurd), and he's taken care of business rather handily in each of his races. The only knock against this horse? Tradition. History. He didn't race at age 2. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby that didn't race at age 2 since the late 1800s. Maybe it's just been dumb luck, but also a lot of people think it has to do with the maturity of the horse (or lack thereof). Another historical knock against him- Todd Pletcher. He may be the best trainer in the country. But for all the awesome Derby entrants he's had through the years, he's only won the race once. This looks like it could finally be the year for him to get another. But in all seriousness, this horse has won and won easy in all of his races. As this Youtube clip shows, it looks like he struggled. I think he toyed with the competition.

#5 Normandy Invasion
There are definitely some things to like with Normandy Invasion. He was a fast-closing 2nd in the Wood Memorial. And he passed Vyjack to do it. A lot of people think the Derby might actually be his best race, because it'll will only be his third start this year. He ran in a stakes race back in February after not running since November last year. The horse came out rusty, had a troubled trip, and ran 5th. So the Wood was his 2nd start off a long break, and he got a solid 2nd place finish. 3rd start off the layoff (break) is supposed to be a horse's best run. All of his starts have been on dirt, and he's been in against tough competition in a lot of his races. His trainer and jockey are very good. Chad Brown is one of the best trainers in the game right now, and Javier Castellano has won so many big races around the world (but never a Kentucky Derby). But is he good enough?

#20 Vyjack
Going into the Wood, Vyjack was undefeated just like Verrazano. And he ran a decent race in the Wood to finish 3rd. But some major concerns- Going into the stretch, he had every chance to pass Verrazano and couldn't do it. Then right at the end of the race he started tiring, and Normandy Invasion passed him. This horse is a hard-tryer. He has the ability to start well to put himself in a good position to win. But the Wood Memorial was his big test to see how he fared against Derby-caliber competition, and he kinda faltered? But didn't falter by much. His odds will be nice on Derby day if you think he has a comeback race in him.

If you like one of these horses enough, it's not a bad idea to take a horse that's raced against each other in the past and bet them all on Derby Day- Meaning it might be a good idea to include Vyjack and Normandy Invasion in exacta and trifecta bets if you like Verrazano on Derby Day (bets where you predict the top 2 and top 3 finishers in a race).

gaypalmsprings
04-23-2013, 08:57 PM
Overanalyze is good choice to win.

fiopadp7791
04-23-2013, 09:02 PM
http://youtu.be/45Q1K1FjeF8
Santa Anita Derby
Date of Race- Saturday 4/6/13
Location- Santa Anita (Arcadia, CA)
Surface- Dirt
Distance- 1 1/8 Miles

Derby entrant in this clip:
#8 Goldencents

Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby. He should be one of the favorites with Verrazano and a horse called Orb who I'll be telling you about in the next couple posts. The pros-
1)He won Santa Anita Derby, pretty much the west coast's big Derby Prep.
2)His trainer, Doug O'Neil won the Kentucky Derby with I'll Have Another last year. So the trainer knows how to train a horse to win the Derby.
3)He ran away with the race contesting a hot pace on the front-end. The faster a horse goes on the lead, the more energy he exerts early-on, which means he won't have much left for the finish. He looked like he had plenty of energy left when running down the stretch of the race.
4) There doesn't look to be too many front-running type of horses in this year's Kentucky Derby field. With all the traffic problems horses face in the Derby, if he's on the lead, he won't be dealing with traffic. He has a running style that will keep him out of trouble.

The cons-
1)It's debatable who Goldencents really beat in that race. The quality of the competition in that race didn't seem that good on paper. No other horse from that race has qualified for the Derby. The 2nd-place finisher would have, but is out with injury (which occurred in the race).
2)Yes Goldencents has the running style that will keep him out of traffic trouble early on, but can he run that far on the front-end? A mile and a quarter is such a demanding distance. That's the big unknown with him.
3) His jockey is Kevin Krigger. He's a solid jockey that holds his own on the Southern California racing circuit, but he's never rode a horse in the Kentucky Derby or at Churchill Downs before. Pressure in big races can make jockeys not handle their horses the best tactically.

fiopadp7791
04-23-2013, 09:19 PM
Overanalyze is good choice to win.
Bob, Thank you. I'll do him next.

http://youtu.be/7yT6rYb5y_w
2013 Arkansas Derby
Date- 4/13/13
Location- Oaklawn Park (Hot Springs, AR)
Surface- Dirt
Distance- 1 1/8 Miles

Derby Entrants in this clip-
#2 Oxbow
#9 Overanalyze
#13 Falling Sky
#18 Frac Daddy

#9 Overanalyze
Overanalyze no pun intended may be one of the bigger dark-horses in the Kentucky Derby this year. As you can see from the clip, he won the Arkansas Derby easily (this race happened Saturday of weekend 1 if any of you guys care). He has the same path to the Derby as Normandy Invasion (in the Wood Memorial post). He beat Normandy Invasion in a stakes race last November. Then he didn't run again until March. He was rusty off the long layoff (long 3+ month break), and finished a troubled 5th in that race. So this was his 2nd race back, and shook off the rust with-ease against the others in this race. 3rd race off the layoff is supposed to be a horse's peak effort, and with that being the Kentucky Derby, he could be primed for a big effort. He's also trained by Todd Pletcher, the trainer that seems to be winning everything EXCEPT the Derby right now lol. He looked really good in this race, but it's also questionable that the field he went against had much quality or not. So he did what he had to do, but against a weak field?

#18 Frac Daddy
Frac Daddy at big odds got 2nd, and that effort is enough to put him in the Kentucky Derby. But his efforts going into the Arkansas Derby weren't that good, and he was soundly beaten by Overanalyze. But there are some positives- Frac Daddy raced extremely wide this whole race, did it close to the lead, and he kept running. Also, in the stretch, Overanalyze looked to be the better horse, but he also looks like he stopped Frac Daddy's momentum a little bit when they got even with each other. He lugged in on Daddy a little. So maybe he could've finished closer to Overanalyze if that didn't happen? A wide trip in the Derby with all that traffic might be his downfall, but he god himself in a good spot, and what if he just keeps on running on Derby Day like he did here?

#2 Oxbow
The other "unknown" to come out of this race is Oxbow. He got 2nd in the Rebel Stakes a month before the clip shown above. That effort was enough to get him in the Kentucky Derby. So was his trainer wanting a top-effort in the Arkansas Derby, knowing the real goal is the Kentucky Derby (I'm not saying the horse intentionally dumped, but this may have been more of a paid workout than him really trying to win the race if he had to really exert himself to do it)? Oxbow's trainer is D Wayne Lukas, who has won the Derby 4 times. He knows how to win a race. So Oxbow will also be a big long-shot, but just based on the trainer's reputation alone, he could be primed for a big effort on Derby Day. The effort in the Rebel Stakes (shown in a later post) will be good enough to make him a contender in the Derby, but this Arkansas Derby effort won't even be close to good enough.

#13 Falling Sky
Falling Sky will be another big longshot on Derby Day. But maybe the best thing he has going for him, is he has been in tough, and he's raced a lot. So he should should have the maturity and the stamina, but is he good enough? He qualified for the Derby by winning a minor stakes race back in February, and then finishing 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby and 4th here in the Arkansas Derby. In the Tampa Bay Derby back in mid-march, he was well-beaten by Verrazano and a horse I'll talk about later called Java's War. So he's gone against the best, but he's also gotten his butt whooped against the best. He'll be one of the few front-running types in the Derby, so he won't have the traffic problems that a lot of other horses will have, but he got tired in the clip shown above. Can he go a mile and a quarter? Mixed signals?

fiopadp7791
04-23-2013, 09:59 PM
http://youtu.be/P-8hJDK9Vac
Florida Derby
Location- Gulfstream Park (suburban Miami)
Date- 3/30/2013
Surface- Dirt
Distance- 1 1/8 Miles

Derby entrants in this clip-
#12 Itsmyluckyday
#16 Orb

#16 Orb
I probably should've posted about this horse in the 2nd post. Because if Verrazano isn't the Kentucky Derby Favorite, it'll be Orb. Orb has looked very impressive thus far, and he seems to keep improving. He's well-bred, is trained by a Hall-of-Fame trainer who's been successful at the top levels of horse racing for 40+ years, and since November last year is undefeated. He's usually a little bit of a deep-closer (which means he can be far-behind early, and come flying late), but as you can see from the clip above he was much closer to the front and still closed home to win easily. My issue with him- since he's a closer, when you have to try and pass 10+ horses to win a race, you can run into traffic. If he gets a clear run at the front-runners in the Derby, he has a very good chance to win it. But he will be one of the favorites.

#12 Itsmyluckyday
Itsmyluckyday has been in some tough races, and has handled himself well. Orb really had to work to beat him in the clip above. He's a stalker/front-runner who can really grind out a victory. He lost to Goldencents (the Santa Anita Derby winner) in a stakes race last fall. So as I said before, he's gone against the best and held his own. He has a chance to win the Derby, but I have some concerns that 1 1/4 miles might be a little too long for him to run. Did Orb pass him in this race because Orb was just better, or did Itsmyluckyday get a little tired at the end? Either way, he is a contender to at least be on of the top finishers in this race.

If you like Orb to win the Derby, it may be a good idea to put Itsmyluckyday in exacta and trifecta plays with Orb.

fiopadp7791
04-24-2013, 07:41 AM
http://youtu.be/NRDTtdZSKDM
Louisiana Derby
Location- Fairgrounds (New Orleans)
Date 3/30/13
Surface- Dirt
Distance 1 1/8 Miles

Derby entrants in this clip (number listed next to them is their Kentucky Derby post position)-
#3 Revolutionary
#4 Golden Soul
#6 Mylute
#10 Palice Malice


#3 Revolutionary
Revolutionary is on a nice roll for once again, trainer Todd Pletcher. I should probably mention at this point that a lot of the best trainers go many years without having a horse in the derby. Some only get one in their lifetime. Pletcher is gonna have 4 or 5 in this year's race alone. So as I said in a previous post, it's absurd that amount of talented horses he gets in his stable each year. So... onto Revolutionary- The race before this, he won a minor stakes race at Aqueduct in New York, and the Pletcher decided to ship him to Fairgrounds to run in this Derby Prep. I'm not sure if Pletcher has babied this horse, or maybe not thought as highly of him as some of the others in his stable. Reason I say this, he's entered this horse against lesser competition in his past few races, and each time he's won. So the horse wins, and he gets a slightly tougher test, wins again, gets a slightly tougher test. Entering him in the Louisiana Derby meant not going up against the best competition. The race attracted a full field of 14 horses, because none of the entrants were all that scared of each other. They all thought they had a legit chance to win. I remember when handicapping the Louisiana Derby that I thought 9 or 10 out of the 14 had a decent chance of winning the race, so it truly was wide-open. But Revolutionary did what he had to do in this race. He raced extrememly wide for most of it (meaning he was way out from the rail, had no inside-track to shorten the race distance), and still won. So on Kentucky Derby day, he'll finally get his big test against the best 3-year olds. But he's as ready as he'll ever be. He won't be one of the favorites, but won't be much of a long-shot either. I can see him being anywhere from 7-1 to around 10-1 that day. I think the thing that impressed me the most about him in this race- When the 2nd place horse Mylute came up to challenge him, he looked like he'd get passed, but Revolutionary found another gear and grinded home a victory. But the question will remain, has he really faced tough competition to this point, and how will that translate on Derby day?

#6 Mylute
Mylute ran a very good race to finish 2nd. But! He should've won. He had every chance to pass Revolutionary, and didn't do it. Was it a lack of heart? Was it a lack of guts? Was Revolutionary just too good? Or maybe was Mylute just tired out? Mylute's daddy is the hottest young sire out there right now- Midnight Lute. Midnight Lute's progeny are winning a lot, on all distances and surfaces (Turf, Dirt, Synthetic). But! Midnight Lute was a sprinter. And I wonder if Mylute is taking on a distance that is too far for his breeding. A sprint is any race under a mile, and to ask him to go 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 miles might be asking him to run too far. He closed strong in the Louisiana Derby, but couldn't finish it out. So... mixed signals?

#10 Palice Malice
Another Todd Pletcher entrant in this race was Palace Malice. He was a non-threatening 7th in this race, but rebounded 2 weeks later in the Blue Grass Stakes to finish a close 2nd. That 2nd-place finish got him in the Derby. I'll go into more detail about him in the Blue Grass post below, but one thing to point out about his finish in this race- Throughout these posts you've seen me use the phrase "TRAFFIC TROUBLES" or "TRAFFIC PROBLEMS" or "TRAFFIC _____". Well Palace Malice had plenty of traffic trouble in this race. He was unable to get any kind of clear run down the stretch, because he was caught behind tiring horses that blocked his final stretch run. So how good could he have finished if he had a clear run in this race? I'll say more in the Blue Grass post, where he did get a clear run.

#4 Golden Soul
Golden Soul is a last-minute Derby entrant. He didn't have enough qualifying points to be in the top 20, but with a few dropping out, he's now in the field. But... you can maybe take a little positivity out of this race for a horse that might just be the longest shot on the board- He got 4th in the Louisiana Derby, but was so far back in this race, that he closed from miles away to get that 4th place finish. He had to run widest around the track to do it too. If you watch the clip of this race, watch the #4 horse (yes he's the #4 horse in the Derby, but he was the #4 in the Louisiana Derby too). He breaks clean, but just is really sluggish coming out. As the race unfolds, you can't even see him in the screen he's so far back. But you see him start to pick off horses in the stretch. He never threatened to win the race, but it doesn't look like an extra 1/8 of a mile will be any issue for him. He'll be a deep closing type like Java's War. But is he as good as Java's War? So if you're playing exactas and trifectas, if you're looking for a big longshot underneath, he's not the worst horse to include.

PlayaDelWes
04-24-2013, 08:03 AM
^Good stuff. I admire the research.

Animal Kingdom in 2011, the Trifecta in 2012, what else is in teaches of playas?


Derby Party 2013...Who's making the trip out from Minnesota?

http://i36.tinypic.com/9fz2bq.jpg

fiopadp7791
04-24-2013, 08:14 AM
http://youtu.be/P_fNOnqKuMw
UAE (United Arab Emirates) Derby
Location- Meydan Racecourse (Dubai)
Date- 3/30/13
Surface- SYNTHETIC
Distance- 1 3/16 Miles

Kentucky Derby Entrants in this clip- #11 Lines of Battle

Maybe the biggest "unknown" of the whole Kentucky Derby field is the winner of this race- Lines of Battle.
The UAE Derby isn't just a big race because of it being a big Kentucky Derby Prep, it's also because it offers the biggest purse of any of the Derby Preps. The race takes place on Dubai World Cup day. It's a series of 8 or 9 races that are worth a combined purse total of $25 million. But the horses come from seriously all corners of the world to run in these races.

But that doesn't necessarily mean the caliber of competition in the UAE Derby was all that good. A lot of horses in the race come off of long breaks (layoffs) and are rusty going into it. A lot have only raced on turf (grass) their whole careers and are trying this synthetic dirt surface for the first time. Also, that track has a speed bias. Any horse that won on the track that day, was up-close to the lead. It was extremely difficult to close from far back. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in this race actually managed to do so, but they were too far back for it to matter. But Lines of Battle did what he had to do and won pretty easy.

Pros-
1) He's really well-bred. Has the distance pedigree to run all day (which means the Derby distance shouldn't be a problem for him).
2) The UAE Derby is run at a distance of 1 3/16 miles. Which means he's won a prep race at a longer distance than any of the other Kentucky Derby entrants have ever attempted to run. That's only 1/16 mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby.
3) His owner/trainer are called the Coolmore group. When you look at the guide, it'll say the horse is owned by Magnier, Smith, & Tabor. But they're called the Coolmores. And they might be the most tightly, most efficiently run ownership/breeding group in the world. And they don't mess around. They don't just enter horses in big races just to have one entered. They enter them to win. And their head trainer, Aiden O'Brien might be the best in the world.
4) The UAE Derby actually has 4 year-olds in the race too. Because in the Southern Hemisphere, horses start their careers later on, and so at age 4 they're still still age 3 by racing standards lol. So he also beat some horses that may be more mature physically, because there were 3 4 year-olds in the race.
5) He has a stalking/front-running style that will keep him out of traffic trouble in the Kentucky Derby. And he won fairly easily going at a longer distance than the rest of these.

Cons-
1) So I praised his breeding right? He has the proper distance pedigree. But also, his bloodlines are all turf. Grass. Grass. Grass. Horses that run well on grass and on Synthetic dirt a lot of times don't handle traditional dirt tracks well. So he's never run on dirt before (because he's a European horse and they don't run dirt races over there). Will he handle the dirt track at Churchill Downs?
2) I praised his owner/trainer right? Well they've tried the Kentucky Derby the past 2 years with horses that ran in the UAE Derby for them. Last year a horse with pure turf breeding, Daddy Long Legs finished last in the Kentucky Derby. The year before that, Master of hounds had a non-threatening mid-pack finish.
3) Usually American horses that run in Dubai get a big, long, rest after running there. Like if they run in March in Dubai, a lot of times you won't see them run again until sometime in the summer. That travel really takes a lot out of them physically. Now Lines of Battle was shipped back to Europe after Dubai. But that's a lot of travel for a horse to handle in 1 month. Will Lines of Battle be in top-physical condition due to the travel? HE JUST ARRIVED AT CHURCHILL DOWNS FROM EUROPE ON WEDNESDAY 5/1, AND WILL GET HIS FIRST WORKOUT OVER THE TRACK TODAY. So will the travel affect him?
4) I mentioned before the speed bias that the Dubai track had that day. He was close to the front, and that's where every horse was winning that day. It was extremely difficult to close from far behind and even place. So he won, but there was a built -in track bias. On Kentucky Derby Day, you see horses close from very far back to win in a lot of years. So he better be able to keep running on the First Saturday in May.
5) In the clip above, when he's running down the stretch he drifts out poorly (which means he's not running straight). This sometimes happens when horses get really tired, but it also happens because they just don't know any better lol. The jockey was eventually able straighten him out, and when he did it's like he had another burst. Will that issue be ironed out by the Kentucky Derby?

I think he's a horse that if you're playing exactas and trifectas, you should include him on your ticket. He really is an unknown, because I don't know if he'll be bet hard, or if he'll be 20-1. There's a lot of good things to say about him, and a lot of knocks against him too.

fiopadp7791
04-24-2013, 08:17 AM
^Good stuff. I admire the research.

Animal Kingdom in 2011, the Trifecta in 2012, what else is in teaches of playas?


Derby Party 2013...Who's making the trip out from Minnesota?

http://i36.tinypic.com/9fz2bq.jpg

Ha.... be careful what you wish for. We unfortunately didn't run into each other weekend 1, so some random stranger might show up at your door-step. haha. Thanks for the praise. I knew you'd like this, but hoping some other casual fans get something out of it too? Still about 10 days away.

fiopadp7791
04-24-2013, 09:38 AM
http://youtu.be/ee0T1geh3Eo
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
Location- Keeneland (Lexington, KY)
Date- 4/13/13
Distance- 1 1/8 Miles
Track- SYNTHETIC

Derby Entrants in the clip above-
#10 Palice Malice
#15 Charming Kitten
#19 Java's War

#19 Java's War
Java's War is a big-time sleeper on Derby Day. You saw from how far back he closed to win the Blue Grass. He also closed like a freight train in the Tampa Bay Derby in finishing 2nd to Verrazano in that race (he was the only one to even slightly threaten Verrazano in that race). But as good as he's been, his inability to have good starts might be his huge downfall on Derby Day. In both of those races mentioned, he completely botched the start and put himself way behind early on. When you have to run against 19 other horses in the Derby, this could lead to some serious traffic problems in trying to run from behind. The rest of the Blue Grass field was pretty suspect on overall quality, but after a horrible start he still found a way to take care of business. Early in his career, he ran only on Turf and Synthetic tracks. He doesn't have a win on dirt. But that 2nd place effort in the Tampa Bay Derby was on dirt. So he's at least shown some signs of life on a traditional dirt surface. I can see him being anywhere from 6-1 to 12-1 on Derby Day. He's a legit threat to win the race, if he can get a clean start. But that's a big "IF".

#10 Palice Malice
I talked about Palace Malice in the Louisiana Derby post. Trainer Todd Pletcher (yeah, him again) entered him in the Blue Grass off of 2 weeks rest from that troubled 7th place Louisiana Derby performance. He needed to do so to get enough points to qualify for the Derby. He woke up and finished a game 2nd to Java's War. The important thing to note is unlike in the Louisiana Derby, he had a clear stretch run in this race, and he almost won. But it was on the Synthetic surface instead of dirt. He's really well-bred. His daddy is Curlin, who finished 3rd in the derby and went on to become the horse that's won the most prize money ever. So the breeding is there, but the horse hasn't lived up to the breeding. He has only 1 career win. All of his races with the exception of this one have been on dirt, so he's used to the surface, but there hasn't been much success. If he runs in the Derby, it'll be the 3rd time he's run in 5 weeks. Will he be too tired? Regardless, he's a big longshot. But Pletcher trains him, so that's a plus. But I'm just not seeing it with him.

#15 Charming Kitten
Charming Kitten qualified for the Derby last-minute after a few other qualifiers dropped out. He'll be a big longshot, but once again- some positives.
Positives:
-He was a very close 3rd in this race to Java's War and Palice Malice. Java's War just had a little more closing kick (energy, speed), and he almost passed Palice Malice to get 2nd. So he really was right there at the end of the race.
-He's another Todd Pletcher horse. Pletcher. Pletcher. Pletcher. But the dude means business when he eneters his horses in these races.
-His jockey Edgar Prado is one of my favorites. He's so solid. Has won big races against the best competition, and rarely makes a mistake. He won the Kentucky Derby with Barbaro (R.I.P.) a few years ago, and rode the horse that beat Smarty Jones in the Belmont to deny him the Triple Crown
-This horse has good breeding to handle the 1 1/4 Derby Distance

Negatives:
-He had every chance to win the Blue Grass, but couldn't. Java's War was behind him and went wider and still passed him.
-HE HAS NEVER RUN ON DIRT BEFORE. He has run all of his races on turf and the 2 he's run on Synthetic, he has not won.
-Why has he run almost exclusively on Turf? Because his breeding is all turf. Turf. Turf. Turf. So how will he handle the dirt surface?

There's definitely some good arguments with this horse to include him in exactas, trifectas, etc. Maybe even to win. But a lot of negatives and big questions too?

fiopadp7791
04-24-2013, 07:00 PM
http://youtu.be/0LTwutyXzZ0
Rebel Stakes
Location- Oaklawn Park (Hot Springs, AR)
Date- 3/16/13
Distance- 1 1/16 miles
Surface- Dirt

Kentucky Derby Entrants in this clip-
#2 Oxbow
#17 Will Take Charge

So this race took place way back in mid-March. The top 2 finishers, Will Take Charge, and Oxbow are both trained by hall of famer D. Wayne Lukas, who's won 3 or 4 Kentucky Derbies already.

#17 Will Take Charge
Will take Charge, the winner, closed from way back to win. Will he encounter traffic trouble in the Derby? Maybe. He hasn't always been the best horse coming out of the gate (at the start), so he puts himself back early. But he has a big late-kick and definitely has the pedigree to win the Derby. He might be the most well-bred horse in the Kentucky Derby. His daddy was Unbridled's Song. That horse won many big races and was Kentucky Derby placed. Unbridled's Song daddy was Unbridled, who won the 1991 Kentucky Derby. U.S. has also thrown many big winners at stud. Will Take Charge's mama is Take Charge Lady. Take Charge Lady was really good at long distances against the best competition when she ran, and had her son Take Charge Indy in the Derby last year. So Will Take Charge has the breeding, has won a big Derby prep, but hasn't raced since mid-March. Will he be a little rusty? Maybe. But Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby 2 years ago off a similar 6-week break. So it's definitely possible. He'll be flying home late, but is he fast enough to run with the best horses? He'll probably be around 10-1 on Derby Day.

#2 Oxbow
I already mentioned a lot about Oxbow in the Arkansas Derby post. He ran well in this race, enough to finish 2nd (and almost win). But he digressed in the Arkansas Derby run a month later. Is Lukas saving him for a big effort on Derby day, or was the Rebel Stakes effort a fluke? Mixed signals... I will say that I don't think Lukas would enter Oxbow in the Kentucky Derby if he didn't think he had a chance to win it. He could be a live long-shot, especially a horse to put in exacta and trifecta bets. The effort in this race makes him a contender. The effort in the Arkansas Derby won't be good enough. Which horse shows up?

santasutt
04-24-2013, 07:10 PM
If I can get Lines of Battle at 15-1 or better I'll wheel that shit.

fiopadp7791
04-24-2013, 07:19 PM
http://youtu.be/NDytfct9WCM
Spiral Stakes
Location- Turfway Park (Florence, KY... suburban Cincinnati, OH)
Date- 3/23/13
Distance- 1 1/8 Miles
Surface- SYNTHETIC

Kentucky Derby entrants in this clip-
#1 Black Onyx
#7 Giant Finish

#1 Black Onyx
The biggest problem Black Onyx may have on Saturday is his post position. So the #1 spot in a horse race is normally good right? Not in the Derby. Because the chute the horses start the Kentucky Derby in, slants slightly to their right, and the inside lane gets pinched off very quick. So he pretty much will have to be taken back off the lead immediately in the race. But I don't think he needs the lead, so this may not affect him too much.

Black Onyx took care of business in this race going wide all the way around the track in the Spiral Stakes. Until the late entry of long-shot Giant Finish, no other horse from this race had qualified for the Derby. So who did he beat? And Black Onyx won this on a Synthetic surface. So can he handle dirt? He has won on dirt, and started his career on it. But against the competition he'll be facing on Derby Day? Big questions... His trainer is Kelly Breen who trained Ruler on Ice to a Belmont Stakes win (the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown) a couple years ago. His trainer always enters his horses in deep against the best competition, but not always with the best results. He'll also be going into the Kentucky Derby on a 6-week layoff, so he might be rusty. But as mentioned in the last post, Animal Kingdom won this Derby prep 2 years ago, had never run on dirt, and won the Kentucky Derby off a similar rest/layoff. So history says it's possible for this horse to win, but I just have trouble thinking he can win with the lack of competition he's gone up against thus far. You should be able to get 20+-1 on him on Derby Day if you're willing to take the plunge.

#7 Giant Finish
Giant Finish was a late entry to the Kentucky Derby after a couple of others dropped out. He might be the longest shot on the board. But there are some positives. He got 3rd in this race, where he was close to the lead the whole time, and just kind hung around. The debate for this year's Derby, is who will try and go for the lead? There are a lot of horses in the Derby field this year that like to run close to the front, but not necessarily on the lead. Well in watching the replay of this race, there's a very good chance Giant Finish could take the lead in this race early on. But how long can he go?

Positives:
-He has 2 wins on dirt, but against much lesser competition
-There's a good chance at least early on in the Derby, he'll be in the lead
-When a few horses passed him in the Spiral Stakes, he kept plugging and re-passed a couple that passed him to get 3rd. So the horse seems like he's a hard-tryer.

Negatives
-Weak Field, who did he really beat?
-Never faced competition like this
-Will he get the lead, and if so how far can he go?

fiopadp7791
04-24-2013, 07:46 PM
If I can get Lines of Battle at 15-1 or better I'll wheel that shit.

Dude. I'm with you. He's such an unknown. The last couple of years the Dubai qualifier hasn't done shit in the Derby. But this horse feels different to me. You should be able to get that price. Won't be the worst bet ever.

I'm showing all these races and trying to show the least amount of bias possible, because I want people to take this analysis and make their own opinions based off of the posts and the vids too. With 20 horses in the field, there are so many different ways you can go. I claim to be some sort of expert, but have cashed very few winning tickets on the Kentucky Derby because from year to year it's so wide-open. So I don't think it's a bad idea to bet Lines of Battle however you see fit.

fiopadp7791
04-29-2013, 10:24 AM
Jimmy Fallon Derby rap from 2001.
http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/kentucky-derby-rap/n17265/
I thought this was funny. Love the Uncle Mo verse too, because it was true ;)

Edits in progress. Governor Charlie is out. No horse trained by Bob Baffert and no horses from the Sunland Derby are in. That post will be deleted/edited.

I also just deleted the first post on this page. Winning Cause, the horse who won the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, won't run in the Derby. No horse from that Derby prep will be in the Derby.

Current field by qualifying points. THESE ARE NOT POST POSITIONS. Those will be drawn tomorrow afternoon.
5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- MONDAY (4/29)

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
12. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
13. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
14. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/V. Lebron)
15. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
16. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
17. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
18. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
19. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)
20. Fear the Kitten (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia)


Adding info about Charming Kitten, Golden Soul and Fear the Kitten.

Fear the Kitten's info will be added to the Blue Grass and Spiral Stakes posts.
Golden Soul will be added to the Louisiana Derby post
Charming Kitten will be added to the Blue Grass post

I posted this on the next page, but just to give you guys an update of changes I've made. Info on Golden Soul, Charming Kitten and Fear the Kitten to be added tonight.

marooko
04-29-2013, 10:41 AM
YB, y u slippin' on this?

fiopadp7791
04-30-2013, 07:58 AM
Jimmy Fallon Derby rap from 2001.
http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/kentucky-derby-rap/n17265/
I thought this was funny. Love the Uncle Mo verse too, because it was true ;)

Edits in progress. Governor Charlie is out. No horse trained by Bob Baffert and no horses from the Sunland Derby are in. That post will be deleted/edited.

I also just deleted the first post on this page. Winning Cause, the horse who won the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, won't run in the Derby. No horse from that Derby prep will be in the Derby.

Current field by qualifying points. THESE ARE NOT POST POSITIONS. Those will be drawn tomorrow afternoon.

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- MONDAY (4/29)

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
12. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
13. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
14. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/V. Lebron)
15. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
16. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
17. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
18. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
19. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)
20. Fear the Kitten (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia)


Adding info about Charming Kitten, Golden Soul and Fear the Kitten.

Fear the Kitten's info will be added to the Blue Grass and Spiral Stakes posts.
Golden Soul will be added to the Louisiana Derby post
Charming Kitten will be added to the Blue Grass post

Edits will be made tonight (Tuesday 4/30/13)

bmack86
04-30-2013, 01:48 PM
I'm making up a big batch of pre-prepared Mint Juleps tonight. I'll be honest: while I can say all day that it's because of the derby coming up, it's really just because I want a bottle of julep to sip on this week. Simple syrup is cooling and I'm waiting for my dad to get home with the bourbon and mint.

PlayaDelWes
04-30-2013, 01:55 PM
I'm right there with you Brian. I have two 1.75s of Makers Mark standing by. Making the simple syrup tonight and sticking in the fridge. I bought all the Mint that Albertsons has to offer. Also making Bourbon Slush (http://www.derbymuseum.org/derby_central/?p=553) this year. Made the Bourbon Ball mix last night, just need to roll them into balls. Placed the catering order for Popeyes to pick up Saturday morning. Just waiting on the post positions so I can print out the betting posters. RSVP is up to 55. Anyone interested in making the drive up to TO on Saturday, hit me up.

bmack86
04-30-2013, 04:32 PM
I filled a litre bottle with my julep mix and it's currently sitting the fridge with a couple more mint sprigs in it to meld overnight. I have the leftovers in a glass right now and am very happy with the result. I used Evan Williams since our local store didn't have Early Times.

marooko
04-30-2013, 04:44 PM
I'm right there with you Brian. I have two 1.75s of Makers Mark standing by. Making the simple syrup tonight and sticking in the fridge. I bought all the Mint that Albertsons has to offer. Also making Bourbon Slush (http://www.derbymuseum.org/derby_central/?p=553) this year. Made the Bourbon Ball mix last night, just need to roll them into balls. Placed the catering order for Popeyes to pick up Saturday morning. Just waiting on the post positions so I can print out the betting posters. RSVP is up to 55. Anyone interested in making the drive up to TO on Saturday, hit me up.

Is Maker's your choice? If so, why?

PlayaDelWes
04-30-2013, 07:50 PM
Is Maker's your choice? If so, why?
No real preference. Visited their distallary on the Bourbon Trail a few years back. Was a decent deal at Costco and generally a safe choice for a large party.

Balls are rolled:
http://i1208.photobucket.com/albums/cc367/playadelwes/27c5d85a6c9813522ff37c6cbb784517.jpg

bmack86
04-30-2013, 07:52 PM
yeah, as something of a bourbon nut I was actually questioning the choice of Maker's as well, Wes. Except for the fact that, when I went to Kentucky, they sold a Maker's Julip bottle that was out of this world. Green wax, great flavor. As a regular bourbon, it's completely unremarkable and not worth the price they charge. Early Times is a much better Kentucky Whisky and you can usually get a handle for half what you pay for a small Makers.

PlayaDelWes
04-30-2013, 08:01 PM
Maybe next year, Early Times. This is really the only week of the year I drink Bourbon. 9 out of 10 times, I'm drinking tequila. Makers is more for the show, the tradition, and something people who have no idea of whats good, ask what's in this, and say 'nice' to.

bmack86
04-30-2013, 09:04 PM
Early Times is the regular bourbon used at the Derby. Woodford Reserve if you want to go fancy. You should go fancy, Woodford is worth it.

bmack86
04-30-2013, 09:06 PM
And, Early Times is not technically bourbon, but it's better than most things you'll pay twice the price for. It's Woodford Reserve in second run barrels.

Tubesock Shakur
05-01-2013, 07:28 AM
Will y'all share your recipes please? Especially the mint julep recipie.

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2013, 07:43 AM
Official Mint Julep (http://www.derbymuseum.org/bourbon-recipes.html)
2 cups sugar
2 cups water
Sprigs of fresh mint
Crushed ice
2 oz Kentucky Bourbon


My liberties:
The night before I make the simple syrup (equal sugar and water) and I also stick some mint sprigs into the bourbon bottle to infuse the mint flavor directly into the bourbon.

Crushed ice has a purpose (keeping it cool and watering it down). Since it’s hard to come by, I use a little more water in the simple syrup than sugar and I keep the mix cool in the fridge until drinking time. I add the Bourbon to taste.

Nearby I have a cup of nicely trimmed mint sprig and a bowl of powdered sugar. I fill a cup with ice, add the Mint Julep, take a mint sprig dipped in the powdered sugar, and serve.


This year I used this Bourbon Ball recipe (http://www.etsy.com/blog/en/2012/bourbon-balls/)which uses honey instead of corn syrup.

bmack86
05-01-2013, 08:23 AM
Here's the recipe I used:

Ingredients
4 cups bourbon
2 bunches fresh spearmint
1 cup distilled water
1 cup granulated sugar
Powdered sugar
Directions
To prepare mint extract, remove about 40 small mint leaves. Wash and place in a small bowl. Cover with 3 ounces bourbon. Allow the leaves to soak for 15 minutes. Then gather the leaves in paper toweling. Thoroughly wring the mint over the bowl of whisky. Dip the bundle again and repeat the process several times.

To prepare simple syrup, mix 1 cup of granulated sugar and 1 cup of distilled water in a small saucepan. Heat to dissolve sugar. Stir constantly so the sugar does not burn. Set aside to cool.

To prepare mint julep mixture, pour 3 1/2 cups of bourbon into a large glass bowl or glass pitcher. Add 1 cup of the simple syrup to the bourbon.

Now begin adding the mint extract 1 tablespoon at a time to the julep mixture. Each batch of mint extract is different, so you must taste and smell after each tablespoon is added. You are looking for a soft mint aroma and taste-generally about 3 tablespoons. When you think it's right, pour the whole mixture back into the empty liter bottle and refrigerate it for at least 24 hours to "marry" the flavors.

To serve the julep, fill each glass (preferably a silver mint julep cup) 1/2 full with shaved ice. Insert a spring of mint and then pack in more ice to about 1-inch over the top of the cup. Then, insert a straw that has been cut to 1-inch above the top of the cup so the nose is forced close to the mint when sipping the julep.

When frost forms on the cup, pour the refrigerated julep mixture over the ice and add a sprinkle of powdered sugar to the top of the ice. Serve immediately.



Read more at: http://www.foodnetwork.com/recipes/sara-moulton/the-perfect-mint-julep-recipe/index.html?oc=linkback

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2013, 08:51 AM
Then gather the leaves in paper toweling. Thoroughly wring the mint over the bowl of whisky.
Forgot about that part. Really need to bruise the leaves about half way to release the natural mint oil by breaking the cell walls.

lehorne
05-01-2013, 10:01 AM
When is Wes posting his bets so we can copy?

May take a long-shot flyer on Palace Malice. Like that Mike Smith and he's been getting a bunch of 1st/2nds on recent races. Borel is dangerous, but hasn't been that successful lately.

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2013, 10:11 AM
I have some hours reserved for studying Friday night. Check back Saturday morning.

Tubesock Shakur
05-01-2013, 10:35 AM
Thanks for the recipes and look forward to everyone's bets.

marooko
05-01-2013, 10:56 AM
I personally enjoy Maker's, and have also enjoyed Woodford. I'll check out this Early Times soon.

bmack86
05-01-2013, 12:51 PM
Early Times comes in a plastic bottle and is really cheap. Don't let that fool you, it's a great whisky.

lehorne
05-01-2013, 06:32 PM
assume the post positions

1. Black Onyx, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Kelly Breen

2. Oxbow, 30 - 1 odds; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

3. Revolutionary, 10 - 1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

4. Golden Soul, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Dallas Stewart

5. Normandy Invasion, 12 - 1 odds; Trainer: Chad Brown

6. Mylute, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Tom Amoss

7. Giant Finish, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

8. Goldencents, 5 - 1 odds; Trainer: Doug O'Neill

9. Overanalyze, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

10. Palace Malice, 20 - 1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

11. Lines of Battle, 30 -1 odds; Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

12. Itsmyluckyday, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Eddie Plesa Jr.

13. Falling Sky, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: John Terranova

14. Verrazano, 4 -1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

15. Charming Kitten, 20 -1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

16. Orb, 7 -2 odds; Trainer: Shug McGaughey

17. Will Take Charge, 20 - 1 odds; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

18. Frac Daddy, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Ken McPeek

19. Java's War, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Ken McPeek

20. Vyjack, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez

Horses in positions 1 through 14 will be in the main gate; horses in positions 15 through 20 will be in the auxiliary gate.

If one of the horses withdraws from the race by 9 a.m. Friday, Fear the Kitten will fill that horse's slot.

My horse trainer friend's take: "This is one of the best fields I have seen in years for the Oaks & Derby. I really liked Orb until he drew post 16 and is the morning line favorite. At this time I like Normandy Invasion & Frac Daddy"

fiopadp7791
05-01-2013, 07:19 PM
assume the post positions

1. Black Onyx, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Kelly Breen

2. Oxbow, 30 - 1 odds; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

3. Revolutionary, 10 - 1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

4. Golden Soul, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Dallas Stewart

5. Normandy Invasion, 12 - 1 odds; Trainer: Chad Brown

6. Mylute, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Tom Amoss

7. Giant Finish, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Anthony Dutrow

8. Goldencents, 5 - 1 odds; Trainer: Doug O'Neill

9. Overanalyze, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

10. Palace Malice, 20 - 1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

11. Lines of Battle, 30 -1 odds; Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

12. Itsmyluckyday, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Eddie Plesa Jr.

13. Falling Sky, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: John Terranova

14. Verrazano, 4 -1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

15. Charming Kitten, 20 -1 odds; Trainer: Todd Pletcher

16. Orb, 7 -2 odds; Trainer: Shug McGaughey

17. Will Take Charge, 20 - 1 odds; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

18. Frac Daddy, 50 - 1 odds; Trainer: Ken McPeek

19. Java's War, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Ken McPeek

20. Vyjack, 15 - 1 odds; Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez

Horses in positions 1 through 14 will be in the main gate; horses in positions 15 through 20 will be in the auxiliary gate.

If one of the horses withdraws from the race by 9 a.m. Friday, Fear the Kitten will fill that horse's slot.

My horse trainer friend's take: "This is one of the best fields I have seen in years for the Oaks & Derby. I really liked Orb until he drew post 16 and is the morning line favorite. At this time I like Normandy Invasion & Frac Daddy"

Thank you for posting this. Later tonight or by tomorrow afternoon, I'll add the remaining horses to my previous posts, and add post positions and post links with it. My picks will happen tomorrow or Friday. Good luck all

fiopadp7791
05-02-2013, 11:15 AM
Ok lovers and friends. This is what happens when I have waaaaaaaayyyyyy to much time on my hands. But as a horse-racing nut and also trying to be some half-ass'd ambassador for the sport of kings, I figured I educate y'all on the Derby this year. You can start viewing all the posts on page 6 of this thread, or they're all individually linked below so if you just wanna look at specific posts you can. I HAVE NOT POSTED MY PICKS YET. I tried giving you guys some good and bad things about each of these horses without showing too much bias. The Derby every year is full of unpredictability and longshots, so if these posts help you form your own opinion so be it. It's seriously every bit as good as mine, because even the most hardcore handicappers have trouble getting that race right from year to year. Otherwise, just listen to Playadelwes for picks, because he wins every year anyway ;p. Hope this helps you for Saturday. Have fun, have some Mint Juleps, and hopefully the rain stays away from Louisville on Saturday.

Intro Post and explanation/terminology-
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730585&viewfull=1#post2730585

Wood Memorial- Verrazano, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730597&viewfull=1#post2730597

Santa Anita Derby- Goldecents
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730617&viewfull=1#post2730617

Arkansas Derby- Oxbow, Overanalyze, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730636&viewfull=1#post2730636

Florida Derby- Orb, Itsmyluckday
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730668&viewfull=1#post2730668

Louisiana Derby Revolutionary, Mylute, Palice Malice, Golden Soul
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730817&viewfull=1#post2730817

UAE Derby (Dubai) Lines of Battle
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730850&viewfull=1#post2730850

Toyota Bluegrass Stakes Java's War, Palice Malice, Charming Kitten
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2730947&viewfull=1#post2730947

Rebel Stakes Will Take Charge, Oxbow
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2731692&viewfull=1#post2731692

Spiral Stakes Black Onyx, Giant Finish
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2731705&viewfull=1#post2731705

Tubesock Shakur
05-02-2013, 02:39 PM
I may skip betting this year as it ps going to be muddy as fuck. Unreal conditions.

fiopadp7791
05-02-2013, 08:59 PM
I may skip betting this year as it ps going to be muddy as fuck. Unreal conditions.

It's not looking ideal. I'm just hoping the rain hits them tomorrow and maybe passes through by Saturday? Their maim track will dry up i quickly if it has a few hours in the sun. Very few, if any of the entrants have any kind of experience on a wet track, so this should put them on an even playing field.

fiopadp7791
05-03-2013, 08:51 AM
#1 Black Onyx has been scratched this morning. There will only be 19 horses entered in the Derby now. Will delete him from the Spiral Stakes post shortly.

PlayaDelWes
05-03-2013, 11:01 PM
Last year, I had two clear favorites who I thought would win the race. They came in 1st and 2nd. It made betting a little easier. This year, I have a problem. I have three favorites who Iím kinda certain might win the race and by no means Iím confident they come in 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Hereís what Iíve got.

Tier 1 (clear winners)
Orb, Verrazano, and Goldencents

Tier 2 (got plenty of distance in them and love to close, would have better records in longer races):
Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary

Tier 3: (slightly slower than Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary
Javaís war, Vyjack, and Charming Kitten

Tier 4: (can keep up, but never takes the lead)
Giant Finish, Itsmyluckyday, Palace Malice

Tier 5: (never really dominated and have little chance against this field)
Falling Sky, Oxbow, Mylute

Tier 6: (No chance)
Golden Soul, Frac Daddy, Overanalyze, Will Take Charge

Tier 7: (Who the fuck knows)
Lines of Battle

Betting Strategy to follow shortly

PlayaDelWes
05-03-2013, 11:29 PM
A very safe trifecta bet with my top three for 1st & 2nd and Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack, and Charming Kitten for third place:

8,14,16 / 8,14,16 / 3,5,8,14,15,16,20
$30


A couple trifectas sprinkling in my two long(er) shots Charming Kitten and Vyjack for 1st and 2nd against my three favorites

8,14,16 / 15,20 / 8,14,16
15,20 / 8,14,16 / 8,14,16
$12 each ($24 total)


A superfecta with the same horses mentioned above:

8,14,16 / 8,14,16 / 3,5,8,14,16,19 / 3,5,8,14,16,19
$72


Will likely cover some additional bases in the morning.

PlayaDelWes
05-04-2013, 10:14 AM
Ended up splitting a crazy superfecta with some friends:

$945
12,14,16 / 5,8,12,14,16,19 / 3,5,8,12,14,16,17,19,20 / 2,3,5,8,9,12,14,15,16,17,19,20

ramblinon
05-04-2013, 10:22 AM
Official Mint Julep (http://www.derbymuseum.org/bourbon-recipes.html)
2 cups sugar
2 cups water
Sprigs of fresh mint
Crushed ice
2 oz Kentucky Bourbon



2 CUPS of sugar to 2 OUNCES of bourbon? Tell me that's a typo.

JustSteve
05-04-2013, 10:38 AM
If you had clicked on the link:

"Make a simple syrup by boiling sugar and water together for five minutes. Cool and place in a covered container with six or eight sprigs of fresh mint, then refrigerate overnight. Make one julep at a time by filling a julep cup with crushed ice, adding one tablespoon mint syrup and two ounces of Kentucky Bourbon. Stir rapidly with a spoon to frost the outside of the cup. Garnish with a sprig of fresh mint."

fiopadp7791
05-04-2013, 11:13 AM
My pick to win- Javas War. Spent a buttlod of money playing exacta and trifecta boxes with 8 horses...ugh.

Tubesock Shakur
05-04-2013, 11:52 AM
So want to bet. I just can't. That track is fucked.

Tubesock Shakur
05-04-2013, 11:57 AM
Revolutionary to win it.

Tubesock Shakur
05-04-2013, 01:08 PM
3
14
12

In that order

kneuller
05-04-2013, 02:05 PM
This is one sloppy track

Tubesock Shakur
05-04-2013, 02:40 PM
4 horse? Hahaha fuck the derby this year glad I didn't bet.

fiopadp7791
05-04-2013, 02:58 PM
http://youtu.be/NRDTtdZSKDM
Louisiana Derby
Location- Fairgrounds (New Orleans)
Date 3/30/13
Surface- Dirt
Distance 1 1/8 Miles

Derby entrants in this clip (number listed next to them is their Kentucky Derby post position)-
#3 Revolutionary
#4 Golden Soul
#6 Mylute
#10 Palice Malice

#4 Golden Soul
Golden Soul is a last-minute Derby entrant. He didn't have enough qualifying points to be in the top 20, but with a few dropping out, he's now in the field. But... you can maybe take a little positivity out of this race for a horse that might just be the longest shot on the board- He got 4th in the Louisiana Derby, but was so far back in this race, that he closed from miles away to get that 4th place finish. He had to run widest around the track to do it too. If you watch the clip of this race, watch the #4 horse (yes he's the #4 horse in the Derby, but he was the #4 in the Louisiana Derby too). He breaks clean, but just is really sluggish coming out. As the race unfolds, you can't even see him in the screen he's so far back. But you see him start to pick off horses in the stretch. He never threatened to win the race, but it doesn't look like an extra 1/8 of a mile will be any issue for him. He'll be a deep closing type like Java's War. But is he as good as Java's War? So if you're playing exactas and trifectas, if you're looking for a big longshot underneath, he's not the worst horse to include.

So... yeah... I didn't have any win $$$ on Orb, but I had him on top in both my exacta and trifecta boxes. But Golden Soul? Wut?!?!?!?... I did say some complimentary things about him. And unlike in the Louisiana Derby, today he broke sharply and was able to show off that closing kick on the rail. I think the only way anyone had Golden Soul in their exacta and tri tickets is if you went Orb with all, with all (meaning you bet the whole field to get 2nd and 3rd) in 2nd and 3rd lol. I just couldn't see it. Java's War was supposed to be the hard closer lol. But the last 2 sentences on my write-up on Golden Soul kinda came back to bite me lol (the bolded section in the quote).

The question I have for the Preakness and Belmont going forward, will a lot of these horses try again if they think they can get a fast dirt track next out. The mud can f things up for a lot of these. But Orb has looked good all along, so this win today was no fluke. Much respect if you had a win ticket on him at 6-1. STEALING. STEALING!!!!

santasutt
05-04-2013, 08:14 PM
My pick to win- Javas War. Spenind a buttlod of money playing exacta and trifecta boxes with 8 horses...ugh.

any hitz?


Place Horse Jockey Trainer Post
1 Orb Joel Rosario Claude R. McGaughey III 16
2 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 4
3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 3
4 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano Chad Brown 5
5 Mylute Rosie Napravnik Tom Amoss 6
6 Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 2
7 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 11
8 Will Take Charge Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 17
9 Charming Kitten Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 15
10 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza Anthony W. Dutrow 7
11 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 9
12 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 10
13 Java's War Julien Leparoux Kenny McPeek 19
14 Verrazano John R. Velazquez Todd Pletcher 14
15 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr. 12
16 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron Kenny McPeek 18
17 Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O'Neill 8
18 Vyjack Garrett Gomez Rudy Rodriguez 20
19 Falling Sky Luis Saez John Terranova II 13

I combo'd Lines of Battle and Mylute a bunch of ways and got zilched.

fiopadp7791
05-05-2013, 08:02 AM
any hitz?


Place Horse Jockey Trainer Post
1 Orb Joel Rosario Claude R. McGaughey III 16
2 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 4
3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 3
4 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano Chad Brown 5
5 Mylute Rosie Napravnik Tom Amoss 6
6 Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 2
7 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 11
8 Will Take Charge Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 17
9 Charming Kitten Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 15
10 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza Anthony W. Dutrow 7
11 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 9
12 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 10
13 Java's War Julien Leparoux Kenny McPeek 19
14 Verrazano John R. Velazquez Todd Pletcher 14
15 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr. 12
16 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron Kenny McPeek 18
17 Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O'Neill 8
18 Vyjack Garrett Gomez Rudy Rodriguez 20
19 Falling Sky Luis Saez John Terranova II 13

I combo'd Lines of Battle and Mylute a bunch of ways and got zilched.

Nada. I had my win money on Verrazano and Java's War. I had Orb in exacta boxes, but no Golden Soul. I'm just glad I decided to pair down my exacta and trifecta tickets a little bit. They were expensive enough after being paired down, but I would've wasted more money on them if I didn't lol. Golden Soul would've been on none of my tickets.

Because of the wet track, I wonder how many trainers will use that as an excuse to try again in the Preakness or wait for the Belmont in 2 weeks.

fiopadp7791
05-18-2013, 08:53 AM
Preakness picks-
Orb, Governor Charlie, Departing.

Not betting much on it, going heavy on the undercard instead

bug on your lip
05-22-2013, 08:32 AM
Preakness picks-
Orb, Governor Charlie, Departing.


Good Lord man... Betting is just not your thing

fiopadp7791
06-06-2013, 08:47 AM
Good Lord man... Betting is just not your thing


http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/3519/img353h.jpg
Shot at 2012-05-05

If it weren't for putting $100 on Creative Cause... but goddamn mid-stretch all three horses were 1-2-3. But Creative Cause just had no gas left. What coulda been if he held on for 3rd...

Last year, I had a winning ticket on the Kentucky Derby. I had to take a picture of it, just to prove that it happened. Because that, and the other 2 Triple Crown races for that matter eternally curse me lol. And I only sort of won. I still picked the wrong winner and dumped a bunch of money on him, but I at east hit the big exacta to save my behind (won $750).


145TH BELMONT STAKES

1 Frac Daddy Alan Garcia Kenny McPeek 30-1
2 Freedom Child Luis Saez Tom Albertrani 8-1
3 Overanalyze John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 12-1
4 Giant Finish Edgar Prado Tony Dutrow 30-1
5 Orb Joel Rosario Shug McGaughey 3-1
6 Incognito Irad Ortiz Jr. Kiaran McLaughlin 20-1
7 Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 5-1
8 Midnight Taboo Garrett Gomez Todd Pletcher 30-1
9 Revolutionary Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 9-2
10 Will Take Charge Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 20-1
11 Vyjack Julien Leparoux Rudy Rodriguez 20-1
12 Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 15-1
13 Unlimited Budget Rosie Napravnik Todd Pletcher 8-1
14 Golden Soul Robby Albarado Dallas Stewart 10-1


So let's see if this blind squirrel can find his nut on Saturday for the Belmont. On paper, it might be the best race betting-wise in... decades? Orb (the Kentucky Derby winner) will be the luke-warm favorite, with Oxbow (the Preakness winner) and Revolutionary (3rd in the Kentucky Derby) will also be at short-odds. So if those are your favorites, and they look vulnerable, you can see that's not scaring off a lot of horses from trying to beat them this time around. I can't remember a Belmont that's had more than 10 or 11 horses in a lot of years, and this year has 14.

For Orb to be in this race (3 races in 5 weeks), his trainer must think that the horse is still in good form, and maybe just didn't like the Pimlico surface (where the Preakness is run). So I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on Orb one more time. I plan on pairing him up with a bunch of longshots in exacta and trifecta bets.

Freedom Child dominated a stakes race called the Peter Pan. The track was super muddy just like the Kentucky Derby was this year. He ran to the lead and never looked back. The Peter Pan is historically a race for 3 year olds not ready, or not good enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. So it's questionable what he beat, but he was so dominant in doing so, I wanna see if he can repeat that effort.

Incognito was also one of the horses in the Peter Pan that was dominated by Freedom Child. But did he just hate the mud? He's owned by Sheikh Mohamed bin Rasheed al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai. The horse is so well-bred. They've brought him along slowly, and I'm thinking that since they're gving the Belmont a try, that's he's primed for a big effort.

Todd Pletcher once again has an absurd amount of horses in this field. Including a filly running against the boys, with female Jockey Rosie Napravnik riding her. But I'm gonna try and beat that horse, and use one of his over-looked entrants- Overanalyze. The horse dominated the Arkansas Derby, and then got smoked in the Kentucky Derby. Just hoping with a month rest, and that maybe he hated the mud, that he has a big comeback in him.

So Orb, with Overanalyze, Freedom Child, and Incognito. But as Bug pointed out, I haven't been right about much thus far.

fiopadp7791
06-07-2013, 08:56 AM
It's gonna rain all day today at Belmont, and looks like could be the case tomorrow too due to what's left of that tropical storm going up the east coast.

Horses that did well in the slop in the Kentucky Derby-
Orb (he won)
Golden Soul 2nd
Revolutionary 3rd

Freedom Child won easily in the slop in the Peter Pan run over this same Belmont Surface.

So those guys are all good bets if the track is muddy, but you also won't get very good odds on any of them

fiopadp7791
04-26-2014, 09:20 AM
The Derby is next Saturday 5/3. Previews/descriptions/pro/cons/beginners guide for all entrants coming in the next couple days.

Until then. Have a laugh with this. If you don't wanna watch the whole thing, watch the last 1:30 or so.

http://youtu.be/p4mIaMYjYlg

fiopadp7791
04-28-2014, 05:06 PM
If it's just a fun, casual day where you drink Mint Juleps, and pick the horse with a funny name or your favorite number, ok. But I figure I'll give you the scoop on the contenders this year. Mainly because I have nothing better to do lol.

So just the basics- There will be 20 horses in the race, which can make it a complete crap-shoot. It's always for 3 year-olds only. It's at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. The race distance is a mile and a quarter, and the longest any of the entrants have run up to this point in their young careers is 1 1/8 miles. So not only are you dealing with a 20-horse traffic jam, but you're also unsure if they can handle running that far. A lot can't.

The 20-horse field is determined by designated Derby Prep races held in the months before the Derby. But most horses qualify for the race in March and early April. So 2 other big "unknowns" going into these races- Is a lot of these horses haven't run against each other. The Derby prep races happen everywhere from Florida to New York to Louisiana to California to Dubai.... yes... Dubai. Further making things confusing is there are 2 different surfaces that these Derby Prep races occur on. Some tracks are comprised of a traditional dirt track. Churchill Downs is a dirt track. Others are a synthetic dirt surface which has been installed at a lot of places due to supposedly being safer for horses to run on (there are statistics that seem to back up that this surface is more safe). But the surface acts/feels much different to horses than traditional dirt does, and so you don't know how a horse will run on traditional dirt if he's only been running on synthetic. It's not always a deal-breaker though. Some horses take to it just fine. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby 3 years ago after only running on synthetic surfaces before that, and many other horses have placed well in the Derby who have never run on dirt going into Derby Day.

My next post will break down some of the main Derby favorites along with some Youtube clips if you have the patience to watch them.

Ok guys, the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday 5/3. I decided to give you a quoted description from last year (with a few minor edits) to kinda give you the general gist of what the horses entered in the Derby have done leading up to the race, and some of the factors/unknowns heading into the Derby. As far as the Dubai reference is concerned. The top 2 finishers from the UAE Derby (the Dubai qualifier for the Kentucky Derby) have decided to pass on the Kentucky Derby. So that prep race won't have any representatives in the Derby field.

I'd like to think I actually know what I'm talking about in terms of horse racing in general. But as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned, I'm terrible at picking winners and more importantly cashing winning tickets on it. I'm pretty much cursed. So the following breakdown is intended to be a fairly unbiased description pros/cons for each horse, so you can make up your own mind on who you'd like to bet on/cheer for the Derby. Because the last thing you wanna do is use my crummy picks lol. You'll get Youtube clips of the major preps they've raced in, so you can see how they've run in a given race to give you a general idea of things.

Like last year, if you're a beginner, I'm not trying to throw too much jargon/weird terminology at you. I'm trying to make the descriptions so you can easily understand what the heck I'm talking about. If you have any questions about anything I've posted, feel free to post a question/comment or message me.

If you've never bet on a horse race before, and need help with how to do that (and what the different bets are, I'll cover/link that in a future post)

Ok onto this year specifically. It's been extremely wide open in terms of Derby preps. Everyone has beaten everyone. Soooo wide open in fact, that there are have been 34 races that offer points towards getting into the Kentucky Derby. 30 different horses have won those 34 races lol. Very few horses have won back-to-back prep races this winter/spring. So a lot of the betting favorites will be the "what have you done for me lately?" horses. The ones that have won the most recent prep races run in the last month. So it's a good of a race as ever to give longshots a serious look in either winning or finishing in the top 3.

But there has been one constant among this group of 3 year olds- And he will be the betting favorite (and rightfully so): California Chrome. He's on a 4-race winning streak. He hasn't just won these races, he's won them easily. But more info on him in the next post.

If you're reading this before Wednesday night 4/30, the post positions won't be drawn until then. So we won't know which horse is running in the 1-hole, the 20-hole or any slot in between until then. I'll edit these posts at the time when they become available.

If you know how to read a past-performance guide, here's a very preliminary one from Daily Racing Form with entrants listed in order of qualifying points they've accumulated.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/20140422%20PPs%20Derby_0.pdf
One with Post positions (Brisnet)
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Derby.pdf
If you're a beginner that doesn't know how to read these, no sweat. That's what the following posts are here for. To give you basic, yet more in-depth analysis of each horse. So as I said, you can make up your own mind.

Horse-by-horse breakdown will be done by the prep race as opposed to going 1-20, because a lot of these horses have faced each other already. So it's easier to list the horses that have run in each major prep, and give the breakdown from there (like I did for last year's posts). You'll see what I mean in the following posts.

Here's the current field thus far-
5/3/14 Kentucky Derby 1 1/4M - CD:

Horse (Trainer/Jockey)

11th (6:24) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Vicar's in Trouble Napravnik R Maker Michael J 126 L 30-1
2 2 Harry's Holiday Lanerie C J Maker Michael J 126 L 50-1
3 3 Uncle Sigh Ortiz I Jr Contessa Gary C 126 Blk-On L 30-1
4 4 Danza Bravo J Pletcher Todd A 126 L 10-1
5 5 California Chrome Espinoza V Sherman Art 126 L 5-2
6 6 Samraat Ortiz J L Violette, Jr. R A 126 L 15-1
7 7 We Miss Artie Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 126 L 50-1
8 8 General a Rod Rosario J Maker Michael J 126 L 15-1
9 9 Vinceremos Rocco J S Jr Pletcher Todd A 126 L 30-1
10 10 Wildcat Red Saez L Garoffalo Jose 126 L 15-1
11 11 Hoppertunity SCRATCHED
12 12 Dance With Fate Nakatani C S Eurton Peter 126 L 20-1
13 13 Chitu Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 L 20-1
14 14 Medal Count Albarado R J Romans Dale 126 L 20-1
15 15 Tapiture Santana R Jr Asmussen Steven M 126 L 15-1
16 16 Intense Holiday Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 L 12-1
17 17 Commanding Curve Bridgmohan S X Stewart Dallas 126 L 50-1
18 18 Candy Boy Stevens G L Sadler John W 126 L 20-1
19 19 Ride On Curlin Borel C H Gowan William 126 L 15-1
20 20 Wicked Strong Maragh R Jerkens James A 126 L 8-1



The odds listed are odds that a horse is projected to go off at when the race starts, but the accuracy of these varies.
Alright, time for me to shut up and get to the breakdown. Hope I haven't lost y'all yet.

Neighborhood Creep
04-28-2014, 05:12 PM
What horse would Amyzzz most likely be attracted to?

stinkbutt
04-28-2014, 05:17 PM
I'm going to come back to this thread after the Wild game so I have an idea who to put some money on

fiopadp7791
04-28-2014, 05:33 PM
I'm going to come back to this thread after the Wild game so I have an idea who to put some money on
you may wanna come back in a couple days lol, these posts may take a little bit to put together. But I'll try to have them all done by Wed or Thur at the latest

santasutt
04-28-2014, 06:39 PM
One of my favorite threads.

If only to find out what horse to not bet on in the Derby. LOL.

Gotta ride the streak, right?

California Chrome has learned how to embarrass the field this year with those finishes. Wow.

fiopadp7791
04-28-2014, 06:40 PM
I think we should start off with the Santa Anita Derby. Because the race features the likely Kentucky Derby betting favorite- California Chrome.

http://youtu.be/a10u6V_Ldus

2014 Santa Anita Derby
Date- 4/5/2014
Location- Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, CA)
Surface- Dirt
Distance- 1 1/8 miles

Derby entrants in this clip-
California Chrome
Candy Boy

California Chrome
Derby Post Position: #5
Morning Line (predicted) odds: 5-2
If you watched the vid above, you see why California Chrome will be the Kentucky Derby favorite. Most are anticipating he'll be between 2-1 & 3-1 for the Derby (and based on what he's done, those odds are pretty fair).
Reasons to believe he's the real deal:
-He's won 4 races in a row, and done so with ease. In fact, he's smashed his competition in those 4 races. His closest competitor was 5 lengths behind him.
-He runs close to the lead. In the Derby, a lot of times the race is a 20-horse traffic jam. Especially at the beginning and towards the final turn when horses are making their late runs. With his running style keeping him close to the front, he's less likely to have traffic issues compared to the horses that are trying to run him down from behind.
-Drew the #5 post for the Derby, which should suit his running style. Means he most likely won't be running wide around turns with 15 horses to his outside.
-The trainer: Art Sherman. He's 77, been a steady trainer on the SoCal racing circuit for decades, but has never trained a Kentucky Derby entrant (although he was 1955 Derby winner Swaps' exercise rider lol... yes... 1955 lol). Makes for a great story about a capable trainer that finally got his superstar horse. A nice underdog story to cheer for

NEGATIVES:
-He's only raced in California. In fact, this is the first time the horse has probably ever been out of California for anything. How will he travel? How will he take to the Churchill track? He just shipped into Churchill today, and a lot of times horses need time to acclimate to their new surroundings, and it's not good when their routines are broken. It's anyone's guess how this will effect C.C. Some horses can travel anywhere and they have no performance issues, and others hate it and don't have their best efforts. That is the big question with this horse. How will he handle his new surroundings? He will get a run over the track to get a feel for things before the race.
-Who has he beaten? A lot of nay-sayers for this horse will argue that the California-based horses he's run against aren't that good. But he has beaten Hoppertunity, and Candy Boy who have won other Derby prep races this year. Also, as mentioned, even if the competition has been weak, he's done what's he supposed to against them- Smashed 'em. So mixed signals?
-His pedigree doesn't scream "Derby Potential". His daddy thrived running on grass and at sprint distances (less than a mile). His mama won 1 career race in 6 starts. So definite questions about his pedigree and if he can handle running 1 1/4 miles. But his bloodlines are just as underdogish as the trainer himself :)
-I listed the positive traits for the horse's trainer, Art Sherman. But the fact that he's never trained a Derby horse before, and rarely ships horses to race out of California can leave doubts in peoples minds that he's preparing the horse properly for the big race. 50+ years of training experience vs no experience in the biggest race? More mixed signals?

I do feel like the "negatives" are a little nit-picky, but they are legitimate concerns. Overall, California Chrome is the deserving favorite due to what he's accomplished thus far.

Candy Boy
Post position: #18
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
POSITIVES:
-Candy Boy is very likely to improve off this distant 3rd-place effort, because the Santa Anita Derby was his first race off of a 2-month break. When horses have that big of a break, they're usually rusty and not the most fit their first race back. So eventhough California Chrome trounced him here, he might've not been in the best shape going into it. Horses usually have much-improved efforts in their 2nd and 3rd starts off those long breaks.
-His trainer John Sadler is a top California-based trainer, who hasn't won the Derby before, but has sent runners to the Derby in the past
-His jockey is Gary Stevens. Multiple Kentucky Derby winner Gary Stevens. Future Hall of Famer Gary Stevens. And Stevens has ridden Candy Boy in his last 3 races, so the familiarity is there.
-The horse won a minor Derby prep race back in February where he beat fellow Derby entrant Chitu in that race.
-He's really well-bred, by top sire Candy Ride, who won his final race at 1 1/4 miles. Definite stamina top-end pedigree, and his mama held her own vs top graded stakes competition during her career at long distances.
-Like Hoppertunity, the horse has a versatile running style where he could be very close to the lead like he was in the vid above, or he can sit further back and make a nice closing run.

NEGATIVES:
-California Chrome crushed him in this race. Even if he improves, how much can he improve?
-Like California Chrome, he's only raced in California. How will he handle shipping to Kentucky?
-Only has 2 lifetime wins, where the caliber of competition in those races was very suspect
-Is in the #18 post position, which means he could be running very wide around the turns early on (losing ground and energy on turns). He may be forced to run from further behind to save ground early on.

Overall, I think you'll get the right odds on this horse if you think he can improve off this Santa Anita performance. Jockey/trainer definite+, but wide post position a concern.

If you think California Chrome is the real deal, and will win the Derby, it may not be such a bad idea to use Candy Boy in exacta and trifecta bets. A lot of times, eventhough horses are coming from all different parts of the US to race in the Derby, sometimes horses coming from the same preps end up being the dominant horses in the Derby. So if you like C.C., don't be afraid to include Candy Boy as well.

fiopadp7791
04-28-2014, 07:32 PM
holy shit... sorry to ramble on. That took forever to type out and put together. I'll try to be more concise with future posts. But the info I mentioned is fairly "dumbed down", so you can understand all the rambling lol. Hopefully I'm not getting a lot of "tl;dr" reactions right now lol

santasutt
04-28-2014, 07:38 PM
Take a deep breath, dude. You're doing fine.

On to the Wood Memorial...

fiopadp7791
04-28-2014, 11:38 PM
The Wood Memorial

http://youtu.be/a4jwGXrXETc
The Wood Memorial
Date of Race: April 5, 2014
Location: Aqueduct (NYC)
Surface: Dirt
Distance 1 1/8 miles

Derby Entrants in this clip-
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Uncle Sigh

Wicked Strong
Derby Post Position #20
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
He is definitely a "what have you done for me lately?" horse. As you can see from the clip above, Wicked Strong won the Wood Memorial in pretty dominant fashion. The way he was able to close on 2 very gritty, salty front-runners in that race and blow by them is a very good sign moving forward to the Kentucky Derby. But he also has some serious questions marks as well.
POSITIVES:
-The way he won the Wood was very encouraging. Sat about mid-pack in the Wood, and had a very impressive closing kick. With a somewhat clean trip (lack of traffic trouble) in the Derby he could be very dangerous with that same run.
-He is very well-bred. His daddy finished 2nd in the Derby and his mama's dad was Charismatic, who almost won the Triple Crown. Should have no problem going 1 1/4 miles.
-Hasn't ducked the competition at age 2 or 3, has been battle tested vs very good competition in NY and Florida
-Trainer holds his own on a very tough NY racing circuit. Has also been to the Derby before with Quality Road in 2009

NEGATIVES:
-There are concerns that the Wood might've been a fluke effort. His 2 races before the Wood were in Florida. He finished 9th and was well-behind Derby entrant Intense Holiday in one race, and a non-competitive 4th vs lesser competition in another. Maybe he didn't like Florida? Because he's never finished worse than 3rd in all his other starts in NY. So which Wicked Strong shows up in the Derby? The NY version, or the Florida version?
-If he gets too far back in the Derby, he could encounter serious traffic issues when trying to uncork his late closing run
-He drew the most outside post position in the race- #20. Which means he could potentially be widest running around turns. But since he comes from behind, his jockey may be able to take him back early on and find a pocket to settle into. If he were a front-runner this would be way more of an issue, but maybe not as much for him?

Horse has a good chance to win the Derby if he can repeat the Wood effort. He'll be flying late.

Samraat
Derby Post Position: #6
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Samraat provides mixed signals. The Wood was a little bit of a disappointing race for him, because eventhough he finished 2nd, he was undefeated going into the race. But it was the way he finished 2nd that a lot of pundits are questioning his ability to win the Derby.
POSITIVES-
-Before the Wood, he ran in 2 minor Derby preps, both at Aqueduct, and won both (beating Uncle Sigh both times and finishing ahead of him in the Wood).
-Has a running style that could be very effective on Derby Day. He is the classic stalker. He'll be sitting right behind the front-runners and will have first chance to run them down.
-High win % trainer on tough NY circuit.
-Has had the same jockey for all of his races
-Tough to fault a horse whose worst lifetime finish is 2nd place.
-#6 post position should fit his running style well, since he runs close to the lead he should be able to have an inside run (not running wide, using up too much energy around turns)

NEGATIVES
-Serious questions about who he had beaten while undefeated. He was bred in New York so had raced against against other NY-only horses in his first 3 starts. In his 2 stakes victories before the Wood, the competition has seemed very weak beyond Uncle Sigh
-In the Wood, he had every chance to blow by front-runner 3rd-place finisher Social Inclusion, but couldn't. He seemed like he was flat and out of gas. He passed him right at the end, but seemed very tired, which questions if he wants to run 1 1/4 miles.
-Samraat has never raced outside New York. How will he handle the change of scenery in Kentucky?

He has a running style that should position him well to make a run at the front-runners in the Derby. But then what? How much further does he want to run? Something good to be said for a horse that's never finished worse than 2nd his whole career. You'll get great odds on him if you think he can rebound in the Derby.

Uncle Sigh
Post Position #3
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
This race doesn't show what Uncle Sigh is all about. He completely missed the start, and then got hung out so wide that he couldn't do what he always does: GO TO THE LEAD. He's a balls-to-the-wall speed horse who will run hard for as long as he can, show plenty of heart along the way, and hope to hold on at the end.
POSITIVES:
-He couldn't have asked for a better post position. As long as he starts cleanly, he will get the lead and the inside track with that #3 post.
-He's trained by Gary Contessa, who is among the leaders in training wins in NY annually. Surprisingly he's never sent a horse to the Derby before, but the trainer has been a win-machine over his 30-year training career.
-His front-running style will keep him out of trouble in the Derby.
-His daddy finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby with the same front-running style

NEGATIVES:
-Finished behind Samraat in the 3 times they've run vs each other (but 2 were very close).
-Won't be the only front-runner in Derby. Wildcat Red, Chitu, and a few others could all be challenging for the lead. When they duel for the lead, they expend more energy trying to get the lead. Questions on whether he can conserve enough energy to go that far.
-If he misses the start like he did in the Wood, his Derby is over right at the beginning.
-Has never raced outside of NY, so how will he handle his new surroundings?

I think he has potential to hang around in the Derby very close to the finish if he can get to the lead without getting in a red-hot speed duel with some of the other front-running entrants. He could be one of the longest shots in the race, so if you think his speed can carry him all the way, you'll get the right odds to take the risk.

This group of 3 is very tough to gauge, because they have some very good things going for them, and some things that make you wonder if they'll bring their A+ game to Kentucky? But Wicked Strong does look dangerous if he repeats his Wood Memorial effort.

fiopadp7791
04-30-2014, 05:38 AM
I know you guys are on the edge of your seats for the rest of the preview. It'll be finished by tomorrow night. Post position draw is later this afternoon. I will update that info when it comes available.

fiopadp7791
04-30-2014, 08:41 PM
The Toyota Bluegrass Stakes

http://youtu.be/i9viKDfdYFA
The Bluegrass Stakes
Date of Race: April 12, 2014
Location: Keeneland (Lexington, KY)
Surface: Polytrack (synthetic dirt)
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles

Derby Entrants in this Clip:
Dance With Fate
Medal Count
Vinceremos
Harry's Holiday

Dance With Fate
Post Position: #12
Morning Line: 20-1
Dance With Fate won this in pretty impressive fashion. He outfinished Medal Count, who got an early jump on him, and drew away late. But there are some serious concerns regarding his potential to win the Derby.
Positives:
-He won this race with an impressive closing kick. But he didn't close from way back. He sat mid-pack, and made a well-timed move which propelled him to the win. A repeat of this effort in the Derby makes him very dangerous.
-He's a California-based horse, but this race shows that he can ship east and win. It should erase doubts in his ability to handle shipping to Churchill Downs and acclimating.
-The horse overall has been battle-tested at both ages 2 and 3. Hasn't always won, but hasn't embarrassed himself either. Could be rounding into peak form right now.

Negatives:
- He has never won a race on real dirt. He actually hasn't run a race on dirt since last November in the Breeders Cup. In 2 starts on dirt he's finished 2nd and 8th (albeit against good competition in stakes races). So how will he handle the Churchill surface?
- Has had a tendency to have some slow starts in his races. If he doesn't start well in the Derby, he'll be well back and fighting traffic coming home
- His trainer holds his own on the SoCal racing circuit, but has never had a Derby runner.
- Trainer said right after the Bluegrass win he was leaning towards not running him in the Derby. Did he change his mind? Did the owners of the horse make him enter the horse here? Why would he think that after winning a big race like this?
- Horse's breeding doesn't exactly scream Derby contender. But he's impressive to look at and fetched a high auction price (especially for his modest breeding). Mixed signals?

Overall, the horse is in really good form, but the fact that he hasn't raced on dirt since November, nor won on it, is cause for concern. But if you believe he can move over the Churchill surface like he did in the vid above, you have a really good chance at a Derby win or top 3 finish.

Medal Count
Post Position: #14
Morning Line: 20-1

Medal Count is an interesting horse in this race. He could be a monster, or he may be a non-factor. Eventhough he was a well-beaten 2nd to Dance with Fate in the vid above, he may have as much potential to win the Derby as Dance with Fate does.

Positives:
-He's very well-bred, and has a classic pedigree you'd like for a Derby horse.
-Has the ability to show a good closing kick like some of the other Derby contenders, but he also has the ability to do it stalking the leaders. He may have less traffic issues because of that
-Has been battle tested vs some of the best 2yos & 3yos, and have travelled to Kentucky, California and Florida to run his races.
-His trainer Dale Romans has never won the Derby, but all of his Derby runners have never placed worst than 5th.
-Won 2 races ago, and finished 2nd here, so looks to be rounding into top form right now.

Negatives:
-Only 1 win on dirt, and other performances on dirt in California and Florida didn't go well
-Was beaten handily by Derby runners Wildcat Red and Uncle Sigh in Florida back in March
-Derby will be his 3rd race in a month. Horses usually go 3 weeks-month without running.

Horse seems to be in good form right now, trainer is one of the best in the biz, and distance shouldn't be an issue for him. But serious questions about his ability to run his best on dirt. He'll need to to have a chance.

#2 Harry's Holiday and #9 Vinceremos finished well back in this race. I'll go more in-depth on these 2 in different posts. I think Vinceremos especially had excuses for why he didn't give his best effort here, but I'll explain that in a later post.

kvnty
04-30-2014, 08:44 PM
Sincerely hope none of you stupid mother fuckers (or your stupid mother fucking family and friends) ever have to endure as much pain, cruelty and suffering these defenseless animals do for your entertainment.

fiopadp7791
04-30-2014, 08:52 PM
under positives and negatives, should I put down which ones have endured more cruelty than the others?

kvnty
04-30-2014, 08:55 PM
You should put your mother fucking mouth on my tight pink hole, you stupid fucking dipshit.

Neighborhood Creep
04-30-2014, 08:59 PM
You should put your mother fucking mouth on my tight pink hole, you stupid fucking dipshit.

I hope he stabs you

fiopadp7791
04-30-2014, 09:00 PM
no denying there are some serious shitheads in the sport, and that the sport unfortunately doesn't have the means or care enough to rid these guys. But we'll never agree that the sport itself is cruelty to animals. We just agree to disagree.

I post about this once a year, because this is the one time a year when people actually care. So gimme until after the race Saturday, and then I'll shut up about it until next May.

kvnty
04-30-2014, 09:03 PM
Mother fucking Saturday can't mother fucking cum soon enough. Yeah, stab me with your tongue deep down my luscious fucking stink nugget, you stupid fucking cooze.

fiopadp7791
04-30-2014, 09:03 PM
Getting back on track, the analysis of all contenders/prep races will be ready by Friday morning (hopefully Thur night). Post positions are now included in the intro post.

Since posts are getting lost within 8 pages of this thread that goes back like 5 years... I'll eventually have a post that links everything. Here's the into post link and the 3 preps I've written about thus far.
Intro Post:
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2915031&viewfull=1#post2915031

Santa Anita Derby:
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2915077&viewfull=1#post2915077

Wood Memorial:
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2915186&viewfull=1#post2915186

Bluegrass:
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showthread.php?41358-The-136th-Running-for-the-Roses&p=2916280&viewfull=1#post2916280

fiopadp7791
05-01-2014, 06:08 AM
Trainer Bob Baffert scratched Hoppertunity this morning. Now horse #21 Pablo del Monte enters into the Derby. Well, maybe not quite yet. His trainer Wesley Ward has until 9AM EST tomorrow to decide one way or another. But I assume he will go, so I added him to the Bluegrass post. Hoppertunity was going to be the likely 2nd betting choice in the race, so odds-wise this is a big scratch. One of the main contenders out.

Will put the finishing posts up tonight, so everything should be put together by tomorrow morning. Hopefully these aren't too long-winded for you guys... there's 6 more to do :/

PlayaDelWes
05-01-2014, 11:21 AM
Trainer Bob Baffert scratched Hoppertunity this morning. Now horse #21 Pablo del Monte enters into the Derby. Well, maybe not quite yet. His trainer Wesley Ward has until 9AM EST tomorrow to decide one way or another. But I assume he will go, so I added him to the Bluegrass post. Hoppertunity was going to be the likely 2nd betting choice in the race, so odds-wise this is a big scratch. One of the main contenders out.

Will put the finishing posts up tonight, so everything should be put together by tomorrow morning. Hopefully these aren't too long-winded for you guys... there's 6 more to do :/

Will Pablo del Monte fill PP #11? Or will the whole field be reslotted?

fiopadp7791
05-01-2014, 08:14 PM
Now he'd actually be #21 and be in the outermost post, but every horse from 12 and up moves in one slot. For better purposes Pable will be #21 if they decide to run. Maybe the first time ever there's been a #21 betting choice?

fiopadp7791
05-02-2014, 04:57 AM
The Arkansas Derby

http://youtu.be/NONJlhgs_Lc
2014 Arkansas Derby
Date- 4/12/2014
Location- Oaklawn Park (Hot Springs, Arkansas)
Surface- Dirt
Distance 1 1/8 miles

Derby entrants in this clip-
Danza
Ride on Curlin
Tapiture

Danza
Post Position: #4
Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Danza
So the Arkansas Derby was only his 2nd start of the year. It was only his 4th career start. He only had 1 win. He had never raced over 7/8ths of a mile. All of these factors made him a 40-1 longshot in the Arkansas Derby. No problem. He romped. If he can repeat that effort, he has a good chance to win the Derby.

POSITIVES
-So for all those reasons why most thought he had no chance in the Arkansas Derby, those factors actually give reason for optimism in the Derby. This race will only be his 5th lifetime start, so he could improve off this effort.
-Trained by Todd Pletcher, who might be the best trainer in the world. Has 4 runners in the Derby this year.
-Horse has never finished worse than 3rd in any of his starts.
-Has only raced on dirt.
-Has already raced in NY, FL and AR, so should handle shipping to Churchill Downs
-#4 post position should get him positioned inside in a good spot as long as he has a clean start in the Derby.

NEGATIVES
-If you watch the video, he got a dream trip. I keep saying "traffic", "traffic issues" etc. He had none in this race. Had the inside track, and no one blocked him from making his closing run. He's not likely to have it be that easy for him in the Derby.
-Once again, caliber of competition has come into play. How hard did Tapiture try in this race (he had already qualified for the Derby before the race), how good is Ride on Curlin? But he did win it convincingly. So mixed signals.

Danza has serious potential to get better since this is only his 5th lifetime start and 3rd this year. So he's a horse that's already had a nice win, but yet can still get better.

Ride on Curlin
Post Position #19
Morning Line Odds 15-1

Ride on Curlin finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby. People all spring have been waiting for him to put together his "big" effort, and the Derby might be his day to do so.
POSITIVES:
-In 9 lifetime starts, he's had one 4th place finish, and the rest are all top 3 finishes(with 2 wins). So he always seems to "hang around" and rack up top 3 finishes in these races.
-His daddy, Curlin, set the world record for total career earnings. Horse finished 3rd in Derby (won Preakness, 2nd in Belmont), won the Breeders Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup and was 2007-08 horse of the year. So the bloodlines are there for him to handle the Derby distance.
-Has 2 top 3 finishes on wet tracks, so if it rains on Saturday he should be fine
-All of his races have been on dirt, and has raced 3 times over the Churchill surface already.
-Has a versatile running style. In his past few races he's run very close to the lead, and in others has been taken further back and closed late
-His jockey is Calvin Borel, who's won many Kentucky Derbies already, and has rode Ride on Curlin in both of his 2 wins.

NEGATIVES:
-Is this horse capable of having a big enough closing kick to win this race vs this level of competition? He keeps getting 3rds and 2nds, but when is the truly big winning effort coming, if at all?
-He's drawn far to the outside in post #19. It probably means he'll be taken back early and come running late, but traffic issues and lost ground from that wide post?

There are some very positive things that say "this horse has a serious chance to be a factor" in the Derby. But the jury is still out whether he has what it takes to win this race.

Tapiture
Post Position #15
Morning Line Odds: 15-1

The horse arguably was the best in the series of Arkansas Derby preps until he threw a clunker in this race, finishing a dull 4th. But some excuses were there to say maybe he wasn't trying to peak in this race, he's trying to peak in the Kentucky Derby.
POSITIVES
-Horse hasn't finished worse than 4th in any career race.
-Has a nice stalking running style, and shows a strong closing kick on top of it.
-In the Arkansas Derby, it was the first time he had ridden without his regular rider, Ricardo Santana Jr, who is now back on him for the Derby.
-He had already qualified for the Derby in his previous race, by finishing 2nd in the Rebel Stakes. So was the Arkansas Derby a paid workout to keep him fit?
-Has a win and 2 3rd-place finishes at Churchill downs.
-At distances over 1 mile, he has 2 wins,2nd and a 3rd in 5 starts,
-The Rebel stakes was run in the mud where he got 2nd (and almost won), so if it rains he should be ok
-In the Rebel, he dealt with horrible traffic issues in that race, and still almost won. In the stretch, he had to bull his way outside of horses to get room. Showed a killer instinct in that race.
-4 starts against Ride on Curlin, he's finished ahead of RoC 3 times (but it's been close)
-His trainer, Steve Asmussen is one of the best trainers in the US. He's never had a Derby winner, but has sent many to the race, and his horses are always legit threats to win.

NEGATIVES
-What the heck happened in the Arkansas Derby? Was he not entered to run his best race, or is he regressing?
-Caliber of competition in Arkansas not very good? The way Danza won this race, where he had shipped in from out of town to win this race, gives us reason to ask that.

Based on previous races, Tapiture has a lot going for him to be a serious threat in the Derby. But was the Arkansas Derby a bump in the road or a sign that he may be regressing? Odds should be good if you think the Arkansas Derby was a fluke.

One thing to note, regardless of what you think of Danza's chances to win this race, Tapiture and Ride on Curlin have pretty much been joined at the hip. Tapiture has beaten Curlin 3/4 times they run, but each time it's been fairly close. To like one and not like the other in the Derby? At your own risk?

fiopadp7791
05-02-2014, 05:04 AM
Connections of Pablo del Monte have decided to not run in the Derby. The Derby is down to 19 horses now.

What this means, is horses don't move inside one spot. The #1 slot in the gate is left open, and slots 2-20 are used.

fiopadp7791
05-02-2014, 06:28 AM
Louisiana Derby

http://youtu.be/7VhPo8myDnI
The Louisiana Derby
Location: Fairgrounds Racecourse (New Orleans, LA)
Date: 3/29/14
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 1 1/8miles

Derby Entrants in this clip:
Vicars in Trouble
Intense Holiday
Commanding Curve

Vicars in Trouble
Post Position #1 (but will break from slot #2)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1 (showing how inaccurate these can be, I think he'll be lower than 15-1 IMO)
The winner of the Louisiana Derby has been pretty consistent, and it's hard to knock his accomplishments thus far. But just like with every other entrant, there are concerns.
POSITIVES:
-in 5 lifetime starts, this horse has 3 wins and 2 3rd-place finishes.
-Likes to either be on the lead or very close, but has also shown some versatility to stalk and close if needed. That versatility could be his biggest weapon in the Derby.
-With now only 19 running, he doesn't have to start in the dread 1-slot. The way the Churchill track is designed for this race distance, the rail angles outward. So the horse in the 1 hole can get pinched back because he runs out of room. He doesn't have to worry about that now. So he'll break from the 2nd-inside gate slot.
-Seems to be a gritty hard-tryer every race
-2 of his 3 wins came at distances over a mile, and all of his wins are on dirt.
-Girl power. Rosie Napravnik has rode him every race, and at this point she's one of the top jockeys in the US

NEGATIVES:
-there are definite concerns on how far he wants to run. With his front-running style, how far can he carry his speed?
-In winning the Louisiana Derby, he was able to slow down the pace on the front-end to conserve energy. That rarely happens in the Kentucky Derby. Too many horses battle for the early lead, the pace is much faster, and those front-runners exert more energy than they want early in the race. If he gets caught up in a speed duel, how much will he have left in the gas tank for the finish?
-Caliber of competition has been questioned in Louisiana all spring. Beyond Vicars in Trouble and Intense Holiday, every other horse hasn't put up much of a fight down there.
-in a true example of how post-position can affect a horse: In his previous race, the Risen Star, had 14 horses. He was in post #14 (so the furthest outside, widest post), and got hung out wide early on. He couldn't get as close to the lead as he wanted to, and and to exert extra energy going wide around the turns. He still finished 3rd, but lacked a late closing kick because of that.

Kinda like Samraat, it's tough to knock Vicar's accomplishments thus far. You just wonder who he's really gone against and how far he wants to run. But the odds will be good if you believe in his chances.


Intense Holiday
Post position: #16
Morning Line: 12-1

Intense Holiday could be a big threat on Derby Day. He may have the best closing kick of any horse in the field. But the Louisiana Derby was a slight disappointment for him.
POSITIVES
-He easily beat Vicars in Trouble in the race before this, the Risen Star.
-Has a strong closing kick. He'll be flying late.
-Has really been battle-tested, especially at age 2. Went against all the top 2 year olds and held his own.
-Only one career start has been less than a mile. SO this horse is meant to run long. Derby Distance shouldn't be an issue for him
-Trained by Todd Pletcher, arguably the best trainer in the US if not the world.
-Has only raced on dirt
-Has raced in NJ, NY, FL, and LA. So shipping to Kentucky shouldn't effect him

NEGATIVES
-Has unfortunately flattened out in some of his races, including in the Louisiana Derby. He'll come around the turn ready to make a big move... and... it kinda doesn't happen. He had every chance to pass Vicar in this race, and didn't.
-His jockey in his last 2 races has been Derby winner Mike Smith. Smith chose to ride Hoppertunity instead (although his replacement is one of the best in John Velasquez).
-Traffic troubles. When Intense Holiday is ready to make his big closing move, he'll have to pass a lot of horses.
-What happened in this race? He caused his own trouble running into the rail going into the stretch. He couldn't get to Vicar eventhough he was in good position to do so? An off-day, or cause for concern?
-Wide post position could cause him to be further back than he wants to be (although it probably won't affect him as much)
Has so many things going for him, and should be flying late. But he'll need the Risen Star effort to win this, no the Louisiana Derby effort.

Commanding Curve
Post Position #17
Morning Line: 50-1

Commanding Curve was a very distant 3rd in this race, but had such a horrible start that he probably lost any chance to win right there.
POSITIVES:
-3 starts at Churchill downs, 3 top 3 finishes (but against maidens).
-Only 1 career start at less than a mile, so he should be able to handle the Derby distance
-Has only run on dirt
-After that bad start, he still closed to get 3rd. Should be running hard late
-Comparison could be made to 2nd-place finisher Golden Soul in last year's Kentucky Derby: Golden Soul came into the Derby off a 4th place finish in the Louisiana Derby, where he missed the start. Was really far back, and closed to get 4th place. So everyone thought Golden Soul was a hopeless longshot in the Kentucky Derby. He got 2nd. They even had the same trainer lol. A lot of comparisons between Golden Soul and Commanding Curve?
-Derby will be his 3rd start of the year, so he should be sitting on his peak effort.

NEGATIVES
-Intense Holiday and Vicars in Trouble have easily beaten him in the last 2 races
-He's eligible to improve, because this is only his 3rd race this year. But how much can he improve?
-The horses he's beaten haven't been anything close to what he'll be running against in the Derby
-Derby Traffic issues and wide post means he could really lose a lot of ground early in the race

Some reasons for optimism for Commanding Curve, but he needs to really improve to be a factor

Intense Holiday and Vicars in Trouble have beaten each other. Not sure who's ultimately better between these 2?

fiopadp7791
05-02-2014, 07:14 AM
The Florida Derby

http://youtu.be/-zmruHWOF-w
The Florida Derby
Date: 3/29/2014
Location: Gulfstream Park (Miami, FL)
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles

Derby Entrants in this clip:
Wildcat Red
General ARod

Wildcat Red
Post Position: #10
Morning Line: 15-1

There's probably no horse in the field with more pure speed and more heart/guts in the Kentucky Derby than Wildcat Red. But how far does he wanna run?
POSITIVES:
-He is widely believed to be the speed of the speed in this race. Others will challenge him for the early lead, but it'll be tough trying to get it from him
-Eventhough he has that speed, he was able to settle into pretty easy early fractions in the Florida Derby. Which means he has the ability to settle into stride and not exert too much energy early.
-As you can see from the clip above, a Constitution passed him on the inside, and it seemed to wake him up. He ran nose-to-nose with Constitution the whole stretch. He's a game with a big heart.
-In every race he's run in this year, people have questioned how far can he carry his speed? He's added distance in every race, and he just keeps on going.
-7 career starts: 4 wins, 3 2nds all on dirt

NEGATIVES:
-The Kentucky Derby distance is a big question for him. His breeding is pure sprinter, but he keeps carrying that sprint speed over these longer distances. But can he carry his speed that far, with other speedsters giving him serious pressure in front?
-He's only raced at Gulfstream park, so he's never been out of Florida. How will he handle shipping to Churchill and it's surface?
-Some people believe Gulfstream Park had a speed bias most of the meet, meaning it was tough to close over that surface, giving the advantage to front-runners. Was he a horse that took advantage of the bias?
-He's in the #10 hole, with a lot of of those other speed threats to the inside of him. So he might be running wider around the turns than he normally would like to.

He's so gritty, he'll be in with a fighting chance coming for home in the Derby.

General A Rod
Post Position: #8
Morning Line: 15-1
General A Rod has been in a good position to win in so many races, but I wonder if he lacks that killer instinct to get the job done.
POSITIVES:
-Only 5 lifetime starts, worst finish: 3rd (in the Florida Derby, and you saw how close he was there)
-Like Samraat, he's a stalker that sits right off the leaders. Should have first run at the front-runners coming for home.
-Only 1 career race at under a mile, and only one that wasn't on dirt

NEGATIVES:
-People wonder if he has distance limitations too. The way he wasn't able to close in the Florida Derby, has he hit a wall distance-wise?
-Does the horse have that killer instinct, or is he a hanger? He's always in position to make a winning move, and a lot of times he doesn't pass the horse ahead of him. He'll get even with him, but doesn't make the pass.

He'll be in a great position to make a winning move coming for home in the Derby, but then what? How much will he have left in the tank? And even if he does, will he pass others, or just kinda hang around?

I can't emphasize enough, that these horses are pretty much connected at the hip. They've raced 3 times, Wildcat Red has beaten Arod twice. But all 3 finishes were extremely close. If you play exactas, trifectas, etc and use one and not the other, you're playing with fire